4/2: Gulfstream Park (6th-14th); Turfway Park (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T/84' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Berliner 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Remembering Mickey 6-1 WON ($16.40)
Best Value: #1 Derby Champagne 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Silver Beach 4-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Ballivor 10-1 2nd


7th: 50th Gulfstream Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Off the Tracks is trying significant quarter mile stretchout from 6.5 and there is no shortage of front-end interested missees here. A gal that can sit off the pace may ambush the (potentially) tiring favorite late. I say that while recognizing that these types in the Pletcher barn at Gulfstream seem able to find a hidden gear..

Most Likely: #7 Off the Tracks 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Mo' Green 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Gomo 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Hold On Momma 20-1 6th


8th: 69th Appleton (G3), 4+, 1m-T/0' (P3, DD)

Nice edition of this standard that honors one of the patriarchs of Florida breeding, Bridlewood Farm's Arthur Appleton. Divisidero came back nicely as a 4yo in the Canadian and should be sharper today though a lack of significant pace may blunt his late run. Saez picks up newly connected Reporting Star (6-1) who offers real value along with Sky Captain (10-1). Force the Pass (7-2) makes 4yo debut today and contends with natural development..

Most Likely: #8 Reporting Star 6-1 WON ($19.00)
Best Value: #5 Sky Captain 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Divisidero 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 All Included 5-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #4 Long On Value 3-1 5th


9th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

As discussed Friday with Mike Welsch, late season MDN event that looks influential, offering plenty of pedigree and intrigue..

Most Likely: #11 Dig Deep 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #10 Zamjara 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Conviction 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Gold Shark 20-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Grand Nene 10-1 5th


10th: 9th Sir Shackleton, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Bit of a scramblin' jumble. Note that Jaramillo maintains on Bothersofthetime and Zayas on Grande Shores, so Navarro tabs Bocachica for 5-2 Defer Heaven. Plucky Griff (15-1) came back running from his extended break and is a horse that never misses a check..

Best Value: #8 Griff Mid-card SCR 15-1
Next Best: #5 Defer Heaven 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Brothersofthetime 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Just Call Kenny 15-1 4th


P4 Grid:

7: 7 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-4-5-6 (C)
8: 5-6-8 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 4-8 (B), 5-7-12 (C)
10: 5-8/SCR (A), 1-9 (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x4x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)


11th: 56th Orchid (G3), F&M-4+, 11f-T/0' (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Photo Call 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Quiet Kitten 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Crisolles 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Suffused 4-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #7 Songoficeandfire 10-1 2nd


12th: 35th Honey Fox (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T/84' (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Celestine 8-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #4 Sandiva 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Lady Lara 5-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Elusive Collection 10-1 3rd


13th: 60th Pan American (G2), 4+, 12f-T/0' (DD)

Late Stakes SCR of #10 Montclair..

Most Likely: #7 Wake Forest 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Grand Tito 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Xaverian 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Kaigun 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Super/Hi-5: #2 Jay Gatsby 10-1 5th


14th: 69th Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (Super Hi-5)

In some ways, given the $1,000,000 bonus and uncertainty about his classic distance abilities, this is a bigger spot for Nyquist than Mohaymen. Assuming they come together at an appropriate point in the race, should be a fascinating matchup and Nyquist's here-to-fore gritty effort provides an edge. Note that Fellowship makes Derby field with a 3rd or 4th..

Most Likely: #4 Nyquist 6-5 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #9 Mohaymen 1-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Majesto 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Fellowship 15-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #7 Takeittotheedge 20-1 7th


P5 Grid:

10: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-7-9 (C)
11: 4 (A), 5 (B), 1-3-7 (C)
12: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 5-7-8 (C)
13: 4-7 (A), 1-2-3-10/SCR (B), 5-6-9 (C)
14: 4-9 (A), - (B), 2-3-7 (C)

1x2x3x6x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/4/2/1/4) Paid $8.60 (4OF5)


P4 Grid:

11: 4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
12: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 5-7-8 (C)
13: 4-7 (A), 1-2-3-10/SCR (B), 5-6-9 (C)
14: 4-9 (A), - (B), 2-3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/2/1/4) Paid $223.50 ($111.75 for .50)



TURFWAY PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 I'mfixinto 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Equation 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #1 In the Shoes 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Thecla 3-1 7th


7th: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry 3-1 2nd/6th
Next Best: #4 Belvin 4-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Mr. Chow 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Enduring Honor 6-1 4th


8th: Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Scholar Athlete 7-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Gimlet 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Triple Creek 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Rated R Superstar 4-1 3rd


9th: Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (

Best Value: #8 Inconclusive 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Wonderment 8-1 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Lookout Sister 6-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Miss Meteor 8-1 4th


10th: Spiral (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Kasseopia 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Jensen 6-1 10th
Best Value: #2 Surgical Strike 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Airoforce 3-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #12 Azar 5-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

7: 1 (A), 4 (B), 2-7 (C)
8: 1-4 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)
9: 2-6-8 (A), 5-9-10 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
10: 2-3-8 (A), 4-10-12 (B), 1-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


11th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Wagon Boss 20-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Scissors and Tape 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Caribbean 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Silent Mission SCR


Good luck!
Steve