Interesting Robotic Wagering discussion started by Frank Angst

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What do you mean by "overpay". If you mean that the exacta pays more than the last projected payout, okay. But if you mean the bettor is getting some kind of windfall, then no. Just because the CRW "misses" doesn't mean the payout becomes an overlay. More likely, the winning bet was still an underlay.

Just as the exactas pay less than the late probable displayed, they 'should' pay more when unidentified exacta targets come in. But the robotics cover an inordinate amount of potential results and widely depress the prices, yes..

It may or may not be a net gain for the track. But it's definitely a net loss for the average bettor. This quote from Tampa Bay Downs's manager in your Scott Jagow link sums it up accurately:

"Effectively what happens when you have these high-volume outfits and they win more than the norm, you're effectively raising your takeout on the rest of the players in your pools. And that's just not good business.”

If takeout is 18% and some group or groups with a bet-timing advantage can breakeven while making up 1/3 of the pool, then the rest of the bettors will be losing at a combined rate of 27%.

Right. That's the whole question though the working number is 15-20% of total handle and the WPS/exacta pools are their area. And you don't necessarily know where the target is at any particular time. You can gravitate toward tracks like OP and TAM to avoid them or play in pools where their programming is neutered (tris, super, multis).

Agree. But as far as computer access to the pool info and the ability to bet after all non-computer bettors, a CRW seems to have patently unfair advantages.

I'm not an economics guy, but aren't most equity markets less than a level playing field? Isn't there a patently unfair advantage for any whale getting rebates or with players that can punch $1,500 P6 tix over a typical $96 or $244 play? Where is the line between unbalanced and unacceptable? They certainly have an advantage and make it hard(er) for everyone else, but is that reason to exclude them from the pools?

The whole thing is a fascinating debate and emblematic of how complex the game and its' vexing issues are..