Santa Anita Showvivor

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That was an amazing run. Congrats!

I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.

That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!

--Dunbar

I was hoping you would show up in here, as DTs only actual Showvivor winner, I was anxious for your feedback.

Obviously I agree that you have to play favorites in order to get any kind of streak going, as so far I have picked 26 winners and the longest priced one is only $5.20, so it's not like I'm looking for longshots, or even decent priced contenders, to use. I think the longest priced horse so far has been either 7-2 or 4-1, and that was mainly at the beginning when I didn't take it as seriously.

I went back and looked at the thread where you won, great job btw, and the primary difference between us is how important you view field size to be. To me, if there's a 3-5 shot in a 10 horse field, where half the field is 20-1 or higher and is just going to struggle at the back of the pack anyway, that horse is as likely to come in as a 3-5 shot in a 5 or 6 horse field, where the other contenders are generally more evenly matched, plus the horse in the short field is likely to draw far more picks.

I think I have a good shot too, basically need one more "sure thing" horse to miss, and then it's a tall mountain to get to 43 with only 60 days left.