W/E BSF's: Blue Grass 92; Arky 103 (!?)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by pick4

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

You can still use pace though to determine if the track sped up during the day and you need to split the variant. His point was that simply by looking at the pace figures for each race you can see the evidence why the variant should have been split. To suggest the race had a pace of 124 and the two horses on that pace finished 1-3 shows how ludicrous the decision to not split the variant is.