Not raced at two results

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Let me ask you, what is the causal relationship between Showup losing to Barbaro, et al, last year, and Curlins chances against this group on Saturday.

There is a causal relationship between not racing at two and having an adequate foundation to race 10 furlongs the first Sat in May against a field of 15-20 horses. Since Showup and Curlin are different horses, the effect will be different...I can't say that because Showup didn't win, neither will Curlin...all I am saying is that they share the same circumstance (no race at two) and I cite data regarding the results of Derby horses with no race at two. I can see from the data (43 horses since 1956, probably over 100 easily since 1882) that 0% of horses with no races at two have won the Derby while approximately 6-7% of all horses running in the Derby have won...what one makes of that is up to the individual, it is simply data!