9/5 (CD): Derby Trail Probables ~ 11 for Preakness with Swiss

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm pretty sure the 2nd half of your last sentence contradicts the first half!

What struck me about this round of Future Wagers is how small the pools were. For the Oaks, just $35K in the win pool and $20K in the exacta pool! For the Derby, just $126K in the win pool and $65K in the exacta pool. Compare that to Derby Pool 2 which had $440K in the win pool and $151K in the exacta pool.

I would've thought that with so little sports to bet on, maybe the future wager would have attracted some attention. Nope.

Haha - true. The notion of a "good price" of "value" on a losing horse.

There have been so many pools, though, that there is probably bettor fatigue. Plus, the pools seem to fluctuate a bit - Pool 5 had over $200,000 in the win pool, Pool 4 had less. And who is going to keep betting on Tiz the Law or Honor A. P. if you got them at a much better price earlier on?

Tiz the Law was 5/1 in Pool 4, 2/1 in Pool 5, and actually ticked up to 5/2 in Pool 6. Honor A. P. was 15/1 in Pool 4, 6/1 in Pool 5, and stayed at 6/1 in Pool 6. Neither Uncle Chuck nor Art Collector were in Pool 4. Uncle Chuck was 13/1 in Pool 5 and 6/1 in Pool 6. Art Collector was 20/1 in Pool 5 and 8/1 in Pool 6.

If I had to guess, people already have bets on the big horses at similar or higher odds than they were in Pool 6...and the horses that dropped in price (Uncle Chuck, Art Collector, NY Traffic, King Guillermo) are ones that people didn't bet in earlier pools but figured they'd take a shot at this time around.

I wish there was another Oaks/Derby double pool. I probably would have thrown some money into that...but not particularly interested in the win pools at this point.