hypothetical derby

[Bogey]

Cold Superfecta

1- Afleet Alex - Just as long as Jeremy does shoot to the dead rail. He won from 6 furlongs to 1 1/2 miles and made it look easy on both ocassions. I spent a week with him at Lone Star prior to the BC Juvenile. An outstanding horse all around.

2- Empire Maker - As talented as they come.

3- Monarchos - Would close like a freight train with this bunch.

4- Barbaro - Must overcome being bumped at the start by Point Given.

Good Racing Luck

[todko]

Barbaro by 6 or so lengths again.

Comes home in the second fastest final quarter (only Secretariat was faster). 12th fastest Derby on record. Cruises behind very solid fractions of 1:10 and change. Tracks right behind the speed of Keyed Entry and Sin Min the whole way. Comes back dancing and nipping at the pony like, "hey, let's go around again" or "you call that a Derby?".

That horse was seriously motoring at the wire. He had a ton of run left.

[miraja2]

Aptitude, Birdstone, and Ten Most Wanted would get my money if this was a real betting situation. Now obviously none of them are the best horses in the race but picking between horses like Alex, Barbaro, Smarty, and Point Given is just too tough and all 4 of them would probably be somewhere between 4/1 and 9/1.
Aptitude, Birdstone, and TMW would all get a nice pace to run at, and would probably all be somewhere between 25/1 and 40/1....which is a very good price for horses of that caliber.
Now if I just had to pick who I think would most likely win.....I'll stick with Afleet Alex.

[declansharbor]

Given his explosiveness and a top jock, Afleet Alex would run past War Emblem and Smarty Jones with Barbaro completing the super..

[Charismatic1]

1] Giacomo Mike Smith 50-1
2] Rock Hard Ten Garrett Gomez 30-1
3] Congaree Pat Valenzuela 12-1
4] Aptitude Alex Solis 50-1
5] Peace Rules Rafael Bejarano 15-1
6] Birdstone Julien Leparoux 30-1
7] Point Given Gary Stevens 9-2
8] Barbaro Edgar Prado 8-1
9] Afleet Alex Jeremy Rose 8-1
10] Smarty Jones Stewart Elliot 10-1
11] Fusaichi Pegasus Kent Desormeaux 4-1
12] Empire Maker Jerry Bailey 5-1
13] War Emblem Victor Espinoza 20-1
14] Funny Cide Jose Santos 25-1
15] Bernardini Javier Castellano 10-1
16] Red Bullet John Velasquez 30-1
17] Monarchos Jorge Chavez 15-1
18] Perfect Drift Eddie Delahoussaye 20-1
19] Ten Most Wanted Pat Day 20-1
20] Proud Citizen Cornelio Velasques 50-1

TOM HAMMOND: Okay, it’s time to send it up to Tom Durkin, who is ready to call the action of DerbyTrail.com’s 319th Hypothetical Derby…I can hardly wait…Tom?

TOM DURKIN: Thanks, Tom. I, too, can hardly wait, for this whatever numbered Hypo Derby. A phenomenal field of 3yos from this new millennium have gathered and there are just a couple more to load. There goes Ten Most Wanted with Pat Day into stall 19. One more to load and that is the Wayne Lukas trained, Proud Citizen, going into the far outside post 20. Well, he’s trying to load. Proud Citizen balking just a bit. Making the gate crew work a little…now, there he goes. The field is set.

AND THEY’RE OFF IN THE HYPO DERBY! Proud Citizen on the outside and Funny Cide in the middle broke very alertly and there goes War Emblem showing that early speed of his today. He is being joined by Peace Rules toward the inside. Smarty Jones is in there between horses about two back and Congaree with Patrick Valenzuela broke a bit sluggishly down toward the rail. And as they pass by us for the first time, it is the sleek War Emblem to lead the Derby field by three parts of a length to Proud Citizen to his outside and Peace Rules holding ground on the rail. The pace is brisk but not suicidal. Running fourth in the three path is the gutsy gelding Funny Cide and Congaree has now moved up along the rail to be fifth, by two lengths. He is followed by Smarty Jones sixth, Stewart Elliott has guided him into the clear about three back and he is now joined by Bernardini on the outside seventh. Barbaro and Edgar Prado are saving ground toward the inside eighth. To his outside is the favorite Fusaichi Pegasus, Empire Maker, and Red Bullet, who was fanned into the six path. Those four run in a line as they round the clubhouse turn. Next is the big red train Point Given, that big body was just shuffled out of tight traffic. After that, it is a break of three back to Perfect Drift and another break of three to Birdstone and Rock Hard Ten just to his inside running together 14th and 15th. Then comes Ten Most Wanted in the clear on the outside 16th with Jeremy Rose just behind that biding his time with Afleet Alex. It’s another break of atleast seven or eight back to the trailers in the field: Giacomo on the rail with Aptitude running alongside and Monarchos is 20th and last as the field burns down the back-side.

It is still War Emblem up front by a solid length. He led them through a sharp first quarter of :23 seconds flat and clipped off the half-mile in :46 flat. As they near the far-turn, Proud Citizen begins to ask the question to War Emblem who is confidently ridden by Victor Espinoza. Peace Rules is sneaking up to the inside, Congaree has moved into contention looking for room. Just passing Funny Cide is the ominous presence of Smarty Jones. Just 2 lengths covers the first five with less than a half mile to go. Barbaro approaches that group on the inside, Funny Cide continues on. And THERE GOES BERNARDINI with a rush on the outside and Empire Maker and Jerry Bailey are trying to go with him. Point Given is trying to get into contention but is struggling about 8 from the front, Fusaichi Pegasus is toiling. And now Afleet Alex is beginning to uncork his rally from the back of the pack.

At the top of the stretch, War Emblem is the leader but is now embraced by the onslaught of Bernardini on the outside and Peace Rules gutting it out on the rail. Congaree is trying to find a way through. The field turns for home, but Bernardini and War Emblem are struggling to go on with it, though. War Emblem has given way, Bernardini NOT TODAY as Peace Rules takes over the lead. And to his outside comes CONGARRREEEE. Smarty Jones is now set down for the drive and Smarty Jones is ROSE to the lead by a narrow margin. Now Barbaro emerges as a threat. Those four hit the 1/8 pole together! Smarty Jones, narrow lead, Barbaro fighting tooth and nail to his outside. They separate from Congaree and Peace Rules, but they will soon be engaged by the surge of Afleet Alex. Perfect Drift is in the picture and Monarchos is getting involved late. A 1/16 to run and it is still Smarty Jones desperately holding on to a tenuous lead. Barbaro, one final try, AND HERE IS ALEX! A here’s late rush from MONARCHOS in the grandstand!! Here’s the wire!! IMPOSSIBLY CLOSE!!! I think it was…perhaps…perhaps I think I have no idea. An absolutely spine-tingling finish. It was a four-horse photo between Smarty Jones on the inside, Barbaro directly to his outside with Afleet Alex two paths out from Barbaro and Monarchos practically running from the luxury suites. The finish was 2:00 2/5. Behind them came Congaree fifth, with Peace Rules, Red Bullet, and Perfect Drift very close for sixth. After that it was a cluster of five or six. A disappointing effort for the three favorites, but not for the four horses that will live on in legend for guts they showed today. And I am out of breath. Tom Hammond, BACK TO YOU!

Hammond: Wow! Tom, you’re not the only one out of breath. Great job as always. This picture may take awhile…..

[Charismatic1]

And yes, I'm happy to say that I have way too much time on my hands tonight.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by todko

Barbaro by 6 or so lengths again.

Comes home in the second fastest final quarter (only Secretariat was faster). 12th fastest Derby on record. Cruises behind very solid fractions of 1:10 and change. Tracks right behind the speed of Keyed Entry and Sin Min the whole way. Comes back dancing and nipping at the pony like, "hey, let's go around again" or "you call that a Derby?".

That horse was seriously motoring at the wire. He had a ton of run left.

Monarchos derby was faster I believe.. like 4th fastest ever or something

[todko]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Monarchos derby was faster I believe.. like 4th fastest ever or something

It was indeed faster. Perhaps 3rd fastest after Secretariat and Sham.

But even the connections of Monarchos before the race said that the track was extremely fast -- and maybe the record would be broken that Derby because the track was playing so inordinately fast.

I don't follow Beyer numbers and don't know what the track variant was that day (or the Beyer number).

Secretariat, on the other hand, reportedly ran against a track classified as "fast" that was actually running on the slow side. But then, we're going too far back for this thread when we mention horses from the '70s.

[sham]

I would pick Barbaro. He broke alertly and showed very good early speed to get into position going into the first turn. He then showed a very high cruising speed down the backstretch using that big, long stride of his to stay 2-3 lengths off the leaders with minimal energy usage. As they started into the final turn, Prado just let him go on his own, and he easily distanced the field with a magnificent closing quarter in 24-1/5 (if I remember correctly). That ideal, textbook type of performance will win most Derbys or most route races for that matter.

If you watch Barbaro's Derby from the blimp cam which they showed during the live telecast this year, you will never see a more textbook example of how to run and win a race. A thing of beauty. Easy as pie. Of course you got to have the horse to do it.

[Thunder Gulch]

All/ All/ Drift...seriously, it's really tough between Smarty and Point Given. I don't think there is really a rabbit in the scenario here, so I'd give Smarty a real chance to stalk Peace Rules and Congaree to win, but PG was just so good when he wanted to be.

[Danzig]

why would anyone take a horse to win, who didn't win in the real derby he ran in? if he couldn't beat those in that field, how could he beat a bunch of derby winners??

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I think that Afleet Alex would win.

He would have won his Derby if the circumstances were different. That horse was a damn good horse. A lot better than a lot of people give him credit for.

[Danzig]

well, a lot of horses could win a lot of races if circumstances were different!! lol

most especially, the circumstance that the others would be slower.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

why would anyone take a horse to win, who didn't win in the real derby he ran in? if he couldn't beat those in that field, how could he beat a bunch of derby winners??

Oh, I don't know about that reasoning. I'd certainly take Native Dancer to beat any group of Derby winners from the last decade or two. Same thing with Bold Ruler and Nashua.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I think that Afleet Alex would win.

He would have won his Derby if the circumstances were different. That horse was a damn good horse. A lot better than a lot of people give him credit for.

Which circumstances.....like he was a better horse?

I love that circumstances thing thats so prevalent these days. I mean, I can think of lots of circumstances under which anyone could have won anything.
Alex was a neat horse, and a very good horse. But Native Dancer or Holy Bull he wasn't.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Alex was a very good horse. Maybe not Holy Bull or Nashua, but a very good horse nonetheless. I wasn't and wouldn't compare Alex to either one of those horses. Now, to me, Alex was a horse that was improving, and there is no telling what he would have done in the later half of his three year old season and his four year old season if he wouldn't have suffered from the condylar fracture.

Alex was a plenty good enough horse to have won that year's running of the Kentucky Derby.