Monmouth, Sunday

[RockHardTen1985]

Race 1- #6 DABNABIT is the speed of the speed in this spot, just missed vs similar in his last and a repeat of that performance should be enough for the win today, Dabnabit will also be the MOST LIKELY WINNER OF THE DAY. #1 SHIPWRECKSTREASURE is going turf to dirt, cutting back and getting back in vs NJ breds, maybe he can wake up at a giant price.

Race 2- Very suspicious drop for the Todd Pletcher trained #6 CONDEMNED. He was well bet twice last year in NY vs some decent 2yr olds. He showed sharp speed in both of those races and won his second start handily. The layoff and the drop is a concern, but the talent is there, and this barn is firing on all cylinders right now. #7 STORMIN BUD is going turf/dirt for trainer David Fawkes a 22% move for this barn. Looks like he will have to rate in here, but could pull a good trip sitting off a potential speed duel between the 1,4,5.

Race 3- An absolute horse for the course #1 ATOMIC RAIN is 3/4 at Monmouth with two easy wins over the track last summer. He is working well in NY for his return to the races and a repeat effort of his races last summer make him strictly the one to beat. #2 MANTECA looks to be the main speed from the rail for Eddie Castro, if Atomic Rain is not ready off the layoff Manteca is the one you want.

Race 4- #3 BOBBY'S BELL has good tactical speed, jockey Eddie Castro should be able to pull whatever type of trip he desires. The Bruce Levine barn is red hot right now, 30% on the win end and 50% win/place. #6 REMEMBER SHIRLEY comes in off a second place finish against similar, a repeat of that effort puts her right there.

Race 5- Trainer Jason Servis is 30% when running a horse coming off of a win, that is the case in this spot with #2 N J ESQ. She appears to be the speed and class of this group and I expect her to go gate to wire. #7 PASCAL'S PARADOX is the main danger to the 2, she has good speed and has won in the past stalking, and that could be key if the N J Esq is hooked in a speed duel early.

Race 6- #6 CAFFE D'ORO has had many chances, but only one at this level and on turf. That was a very good second place finish and a repeat of that effort should be good enough in here. If you look through his PP's you will see the likes of some very good horses, this one has definitely kept good company in the past and today should be the day he breaks his maiden. #10 BOLD STYLE is the main speed in this race and if allowed to clear from the 10 post he will be tough to beat.

Race 7- #8 TALK TO NICK appears to have the perfect style and post draw vs this group. He has very good tactical speed, but can win rating and might just get a perfect trip just off the other speed horses. #5 VINDICAT absolutely crushed a softer group last time, a repeat of that performance and everyone is running for second.

Race 8- Trainer Chad Brown is thinking Breeders Cup turf sprint with #1 SILVER TIMBER and who can argue with him? Silver Timber is in career form right now and this 7yr old NY bred's last race might very well be the best race of his career. #BLUE SAILOR should have the early lead and if Silver Timber does not fire he is the one to catch and beat.

Race 9- #7 JACK TAYLOR is the one you want in this this spot, he cut back last time and was primed for the win, but had some trouble at the start a clean break and projected nice stalking trip should be enough for the win. #6 HAT TRICKER is the speed of the speed in here, if no one goes after him he could take them a long way.

Race 10- #10 SEA OF SEA Not sure what he really beat last time, but I like the way he did it. Third place finisher Don Balcazio came back to win his next start very easily, so maybe there was some class in there. #3 BAD DEBT had some trouble at the start last time vs much better. If he runs back to his race from two starts back he can win this.

Race 11- #1 KARMAGEDDON will have to run a career top to defeat Way With Words, but if CC Lopez can get away with an easy lead early she will be tough in the lane at a square price. #3 WAY WITH WORDS is clearly the class of this field after beating open company stakes horses last time, she is the one to beat but her price will be around 3-5 and that makes her worth trying to beat.

Race 12- #6 BROS SIS needs to step off of her last race, a more patient stalking trip is the key for her. Last time I out she battled for the lead and had nothing left late, I expect Paco Lopez to stalk the pace in here and make one run turning for home. #9 SECRET TRACKER was very wide last time chasing a slow pace, Pablo Fragoso needs to try to save some ground, if able to she can make some noise late.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Can you work up a Hollywood P6 for Sunday thnx

Not dissin' - you had a couple of solid opinions the last few days that made some sense and I enjoy your pseudo-blog thingy... Andy is a fool not to include you as a part of the NYRA capping team... But he was only 5th on the list and clearly has no idea of the scope and breadth of your in depth analysis.... These opinions should not be made available to the general public for free for there is tremendous work and backtrack data you provide that people should be paying for.

[RockHardTen1985]

This is begining to get out of control, getting nailed on the line like that in the first.

[RockHardTen1985]

This is comedy now, my second choice gets the exact trip I wrote of and wins at 11-1, MY SECOND CHOICE. UNREAL

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is comedy now, my second choice gets the exact trip I wrote of and wins at 11-1, MY SECOND CHOICE. UNREAL

Race 2- Very suspicious drop for the Todd Pletcher trained #6 CONDEMNED. He was well bet twice last year in NY vs some decent 2yr olds. He showed sharp speed in both of those races and won his second start handily. The layoff and the drop is a concern, but the talent is there, and this barn is firing on all cylinders right now. #7 STORMIN BUD is going turf/dirt for trainer David Fawkes a 22% move for this barn. Looks like he will have to rate in here, but could pull a good trip sitting off a potential speed duel between the 1,4,5.

In my mind you nailed it. 6-Condemed is obviously broke.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

In my mind you nailed it. 6-Condemed is obviously broke.

How about the total toss of the chalk and the 11-1 shot winner picked second?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How about the total toss of the chalk and the 11-1 shot winner picked second?

I am not following you here. I think you nailed that race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by jms62

I am not following you here. I think you nailed that race.

I thought he nailed it too.
Your suspicions were confirmed when he was 6-1 off a 5/2 ML. Pletcher horses don't do that. Either that or you didn't trust your instinct that he was broken.

Since i cant pick monmouth, i used your picks in rolling doubles. That last double almost makes me on a free roll for the rest of the card. Thanks,Dave

[RockHardTen1985]

Dam, finally a win. I was thinking I could actually go 0/12