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#1
07-09-2010, 03:23 PM
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Monmouth Saturday
Race 1- #2 WESTERN FLYER comes back to Monmouth, the spot of his only career win. Also taking a steep class drop, the winner of his last race, AFLEET EXPRESS is a legitimate 3yr old and a top contender for the Travers at Saratoga this summer. #6 BIG TEXAS DADDY ships in for the mighty Steve Asmussen barn. He is dropping way down and cutting back in distance, the cutback is a very good move for this barn and it should be enough to put him right there on the wire.
Race 2- In the last 90 days Steve Asmussen has run 18 horses going from synthetics to dirt, he is hitting at 28% with a $2.72 ROI this is enough to make #2 SOLID LUNAR the top choice in here. #3 ROCKET ZEE is dropping down in class again, has good tactical speed and should be in the race right from the start. Race 3- #1 MARGIE'S GIRL moves all the way inside from the 12 post in this spot, she has good speed and that move from 12-1 should be enough to assure a good trip from close range. #11 FIREY JET has hit the board vs much better in the last, a repeat run of a few of her Meadowlands races last winter could put her right there. Race 4- #5 VAPORIZE is taking a huge class drop off of the layoff for the Contessa barn. She is clearly the class of this field, but the drop down and the layoff do cause some concern. #1 ICE ON THE SIDE contested a blistering 44.2 opening half mile last time out, Joe Bravo should be trying to pull the stalking trip that this one got 3 starts back, a repeat of that effort puts her right there on the wire. Race 5- #3 DOLLAR MOUNTAIN comes in off of an even effort on dirt, his last turf start was very respectable, he was blocked in the stretch and by the time he could run it was to late. A repeat performance of that effort could get him home at a big price. Trainer David Fawkes excels dropping horses in from the allowance to claiming ranks on turf, expect a big run from #2 KETAN. Race 6- Talk about a key race, Woppi Kitten came back to run second in a turf sprint stakes race. Zermatt came back to crush maidens at Belmont and look really good doing it. 9th place finisher Torrone dropped in vs NY breds and improved her beyer 21 points beating maidens handily and 10th place finisher Always a Party moved to turf at Belmont and won. This is more then enough to make #4 A WINK AND A SMILE the top pick in here. #5 SIMPLE WORDS looks like she was going to be blown away last time in the stretch but really fought on to make it close at the finish, goes out for a top barn and a repeat of her last performance could make her tough. Race 7- Trainer Mike Mitchell is 1/16 at the current meet. His only win came with #3 CUSTER, Custer sat just off a solid pace and won pretty easily. Even though the barn is cold, a repeat of his last performance should be enough for the win. #8 FANCY RUNNER has the speed to be right up on the pace, but the versatility to win from coming off the pace. That will be enough to assure jockey Alan Garcia the right kind of trip in here. Race 8- #5 STORMY DIXIE was very strong two starts back at Belmont, the second place finisher a Mott/Juddmonte homebred came back to win a maiden race fairly easily. His last start, first start vs winners was ok, and a move forward here makes her very tough to beat. #9 BELLE D'ORO gets blinkers and jockey Alan Garcia will need to improve in here, but there is not much in this field and there are some positives to work with. Race 9- Surprisingly not much speed in here, that should give a big tactical edge to #6 SWEET TALKING GIRL. Sweet Talking Girl really controlled the race last time and there does not appear to be much in her way to stop her from doing the exact same thing again. #1 Y TO KAT made an early big rush to the lead last time and just kept going, a repeat of that performance makes her a big threat to the top choice. Race 10- Hard hitting NY bred #5 BANROCK comes into this second off the layoff for trainer Tom Bush, if you believe the last was strictly a prep for this, then there is something to build on here. Banrock has run very well when stepping out into opening company, including a second place finish last year in the ungraded $200,000 Monmouth Stakes over this turf course. #7 MINNIE PUNT another NY bred in this open company stakes race, Minnie Punt has really put it together this year. Two starts back he beat Straight Story who ran a bang up 4th in last weekends United Nations, last time out he exploded late to beat Banrock and all the rest, if he runs the way he has in NY he will be right there on the wire. Race 11- Brought along very slowly by trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin #3 TRAPPE SHOT looks like a total standout in this field. The connections are hoping this is just a stepping stone to the big summer races. The work outs are strong and his last race was huge, this makes #3 TRAPPE SHOT MY MOST LIKELY WINNER OF THE DAY. #1 SOUTHERN RIDGE ran a bang up race breaking his maiden last time out, second place finisher Brother Bird came right back to crush maidens at Belmont. Southern Ridge is one of the only horses in here to show he can do his best running from off the pace. Race 12- #7 STRAITFROMTHEHEART has not won in nearly two years, but might have caught the right sort of field today. Two seconds in his last two starts tell me he's back in form, and a likely aggressive ride from jockey CC Lopez should have him in the race right from the beginning. #9 OUR ROYAL AFFAIR Bruce Levine is 30% with horses that he runs for the first time, this horse is a new shooter vs these, is dropping a bit in class and is cutting back, all systems are go for a big run in this spot. 
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#2
07-09-2010, 03:24 PM
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nice job..banrock is done imo
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#3
07-09-2010, 03:25 PM
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#4
07-09-2010, 03:27 PM
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#5
07-09-2010, 03:29 PM
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#6
07-10-2010, 05:54 PM
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IMO today at Monmouth for me is as bad as it gets for a handicapper. I went 3/12 w/ top picks winning, those 3 paid....$7.00, $5.20 and $3.00. The highlight off the day was Race 8 where I hit the cold 5-9 exacta that paid $54.40 for $2 bet. That is the good.
The bad, heart breaking part.... My top picks ran second 4 times, one of them had a clear clear lead in the stretch at 4-1 and that one hurt, Banrock was also a heartbreaker. My second choices won 4 times, Im only giving out 2 horses a race so I did have the winner in the mix in 8/12 races, but not on top. Will try again tomorrow.
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#7
07-10-2010, 06:24 PM
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#8
07-10-2010, 06:27 PM
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#10
07-10-2010, 06:48 PM
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[quote=herkhorse;667493]you can't crush it everyday, you did pretty well
Thanks Herk, sometimes you need to crush it.
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