9/24: Belmont Park (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Interesting outcome on the P4 Wednesday, with the old fashioned AxBxCxD play hitting for $425 while the multiple play TicketMaker suggestions missed the skien. That was more due to my tinkering with rankings of the horses after the scratches than any faulty methodology of the multi-ticket approach. The lesson is still viable even in the loss, as on many days I might have decided to leave 4th leg/3rd choice Nostalgia off the 4x3x2x3 ticket in favor of 3rd leg/3rd choice Richland Creek. Had I made that move, the ticket would have been a 4x3x3x2 play and would have missed.

The TicketMaker multi-ticket approach would have that combination much more often than not... And although I miscued with it Wednesday, I still will be working with it to try and improve the P4/P6 approaches. We should collectively benefit from the method long term as it gets better coverage and makes better use of investment dollars than 'caveman' tickets. Hope you did well yesterday and will bear with me on the experimentation!

Another good sequence to attack Thursday at Belmont. "At the Races" will be live 4-5pm only today before turning things over to the "Down the Stretch" team and their coverage of the Little Brown Jug from the Delaware (OH) County Fair Grounds!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cleric 7-2
Next Best: #2 Clean Shot 3-1
Best Value: #5 Captain Booyah 8-1
Super Add: #1 Triple Glory 8-1


7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Quiet Alice 3-1
Next Best: #7 Boxitup 7-2
Best Value: #5 Beboblues Art 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Platinumplus 5-2


8th: NYB-OC/C, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Wolfson 9-2
Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 3-1
Next Best: #6 Katskill Bay 5-1


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #13 Everybodywantsone 2-1
Next Best: #5 Love of Life 3-1
Best Value: #2 You Bet I'm Ready 10-1
Super Add: #10 Don'tquityourdayjob 5-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-8
7: 2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-13

3x3x4x2 = $72


<$75 TicketMaker Style Plays:

1 $4.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 1,2 with 13 ($16.00)

2 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 2,7 with 1,2 with 13 ($8.00)
3 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 3 with 6 with 13 ($2.00)
4 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 3 with 1,2 with 2,5 ($8.00)
5 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 6 with 13 ($4.00)
6 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 1,2 with 2,5 ($16.00)
7 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 6 with 2,5 ($4.00)

8 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 3 with 1,2 with 13 ($2.00)
9 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 5 with 1,2 with 13 ($4.00)
10 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 1,2 with 8,10 ($8.00)

Total: $72.00


Good luck!
Steve

[atolunch]

SCRATCHES :

Race Program # Horse Time Notes

1 1A Half a Note Early 10 Elixir Early

2 7 Mr. Universe Early 10 Sergeant Karakorum Early

3 5 Morning Gallop Early NO SUPERFECTA

4 1A As Promised Early

5 1A Sonny's the One Early 5 Papa Jerry Early

7 1A Barefoot Babe Early 9 Red Hot Baby Early
10 Tutti Va Bene Early 12 Hangingonaprayer Early
13 Matrimony Early 14 O'Sotopretty Early

8 4 Strummer Early 7 Executive Search Early

9 3 Roma Di Notte Early 12 Philotimo Early 15 Stone Turtle Early

[Kasept]

Very notable for nightcap that #13 Everybodywantsone (2-1) draws in...

[pointman]

Stab at the early pk4 split with pmac:

$20
2- 4
3- 4
4- 3,5,6,7,10
5- 1,6,8,10

$24
2- 1,2,3,4
3- 4
4- 3,6,7
5- 1,10

$24
2- 4
3- 1,2,4,7
4- 3,6,7
5- 1,10

$3 - $12
2- 4
3- 4
4- 3,6
5- 1,10

Good Luck!

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-8
7: 2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-13

3x3x4x2 = $72


<$75 TicketMaker Style Plays:

1 $4.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 1,2 with 13 ($16.00)

2 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 2,7 with 1,2 with 13 ($8.00)
3 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 3 with 6 with 13 ($2.00)
4 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 3 with 1,2 with 2,5 ($8.00)
5 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 6 with 13 ($4.00)
6 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 1,2 with 2,5 ($16.00)
7 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 6 with 2,5 ($4.00)

8 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 3 with 1,2 with 13 ($2.00)
9 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 5 with 1,2 with 13 ($4.00)
10 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 1,2 with 8,10 ($8.00)

Total: $72.00


Good luck!
Steve

I know this is going to end with my foot in my mouth... Good Luck!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

I know this is going to end with my foot in my mouth... Good Luck!!

LOL.. Not today, but that is a good representation of the idea... That 7 was scary enough to have as a "C" on multi plays but would get in on few AxBxCxD tickets... You need things to break perfectly, especially when that kind of horse hits in the 1st leg, but at least there was a ticket alive into the 2nd leg.

[Mike]

9th, You Bet I'm Ready

[pointman]

Originally Posted by pointman

Stab at the early pk4 split with pmac:

$20
2- 4
3- 4
4- 3,5,6,7,10
5- 1,6,8,10

$24
2- 1,2,3,4
3- 4
4- 3,6,7
5- 1,10

$24
2- 4
3- 1,2,4,7
4- 3,6,7
5- 1,10

$3 - $12
2- 4
3- 4
4- 3,6
5- 1,10

Good Luck!

Not bad considering the sequence, I will take it! $214.50

[jms62]

Will pay to the ML fav AE 13 in the P4 is an astounding 8876.5. He got absolutley lost in the P4 shuffle

[pointman]

Originally Posted by jms62

Will pay to the ML fav AE 13 in the P4 is an astounding 8876.5. He got absolutley lost in the P4 shuffle

Still an overlay at 9/2, but coming back down. Looks like people did not notice that the 13 drew in. Fortunately for me, I got stuck in Long Island traffic and could not get to my office in time to put in my late pk4 play, since I did not have the 10 in the 8th I lucked out, but that is a nice willpay to the 13.

[pointman]

Actually, now that I see what the pk4 to the 8 paid, almost $25K, the willpay to the 13 was not that high, the 13 really was not missed in the pk4. The 8 was pretty logical here and that pay is huge compared to the willpay on the 8.

Traffic saved me money today!