Wed: Belmont $1MM Carry Contest

[Kasept]

http://drf.com/entries/22/eBEL22.html?rn=556341


$2,000

[MISTERGEE]

ok, 3 nights of studying 6 races, yes this could be worthwhile!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

5 out of the 6 races are turf. I'll study the 2 New York bred races last. May die or something before Wednesday, and then I would get out of studying the NY BREDS.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

5 out of the 6 races are turf. I'll study the 2 New York bred races last. May die or something before Wednesday, and then I would get out of studying the NY BREDS.

The 8th is an absolute nightmare.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

The 8th is an absolute nightmare.

if the 8th is a nightmare, what does that make the 2 baby races to kick this thing off?

I dont think the 4th is that tough, Master should be very strong in here with Prado and if you feel like you need to use another horse, why not throw in Tagg's horse.

Originally Posted by hrfan

I dont think the 4th is that tough, Master should be very strong in here with Prado and if you feel like you need to use another horse, why not throw in Tagg's horse.

Thanks.

Now that leaves me with the 3,4,8,9,11.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Thanks.

Now that leaves me with the 3,4,8,9,11.

I just moved him down as well.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

if the 8th is a nightmare, what does that make the 2 baby races to kick this thing off?

I tend to like them better. The forth isn't real bad with Master adding blinks and Distant Strike cutting back in distance with solid turf breeding. The knock on DS is Luzzi but he does tend to ride these kinds of horses better. Winthrop House would be solid here based on connections and breeding but he's taken awhile to come back and has some notable gaps in his works that I don't like. But I repeat, the 8th is a nightmare.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I tend to like them better. The forth isn't real bad with Master adding blinks and Distant Strike cutting back in distance with solid turf breeding. The knock on DS is Luzzi but he does tend to ride these kinds of horses better. Winthrop House would be solid here based on connections and breeding but he's taken awhile to come back and has some notable gaps in his works that I don't like. But I repeat, the 8th is a nightmare.

I disagree. I see four horses that can win the race, maybe five, but one most likely in Mesa Girl.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I disagree. I see four horses that can win the race, maybe five, but one most likely in Mesa Girl.

I agree, I like about 5 horses here which for me is difficult because I can't afford to go too deep into these. Mesa Girl is one of them but she isn't going to get an honest pace to shoot at I think. There are some horses that like to be up front but they are by no means blazing. Who is Lady should run very well here. Her last two on Firm turf were very good for this group. Doree Daze is another. I generally stay away from horses that are running first off their maiden but she sure loves that lasix and could take this group with Javey C. blowing kisses to the crowd as he storms home in the stretch.
But my problem here is I could make a case for most of the horses in here. No one really stands out in my mind.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Master adding blinks and Distant Strike cutting back in distance with solid turf breeding. The knock on DS is Luzzi but he does tend to ride these kinds of horses better. Winthrop House would be solid here based on connections and breeding but he's taken awhile to come back and has some notable gaps in his works that I don't like.

How exactly does LUzzi ride ANY horse better? This horse was PUMPED around the track by Leparoux last out and wilted like a bitch in the lane. Tomorrow, he cuts back, and thus will be PUMPED HEAVILY from the gate by LUzzi, the only way he knows how to ride. Don't want any part of him.

As for Master, he was bumped badly early, was in tight until the turn and finished decently in a race where there was minimal passing. (The race chart looks like a dirt race.) What I found impressive is that the horse kept straight as an arrow in the lane while Prado repeatedly beat him lefty. What I don't like that is that BLINKERS are going on. Until the point where he was bothered, the horse had broken well and was with the leaders. So he has some natural speed. Why put blinkers on while stretching out? Bad move.

Looks like a 1ster or Kiaran to me.

[swedejxn]

Race 8 ratings....

8-6-3-11

[swedejxn]

Honestly.... Races 4,6,8, and 9 are a crap shoot when you can make a case for 4 or more ... it's like playing the lottery... everyone right now (trainer and owner) looking for easy purses with all other eyes on the big show this weekend.... Pick a fav and a shot... play a reasonable ticket and say your "Hail Mary's".... Look for this carryover to build at least two more days to get everyone out to the track this weekend.... Not saying stuff like this is planned .... But I would not bet on Jimmy Johnson this weekend either... he needs to have a bad finish this weekend or next to get those tv ratings for the last 3 races...... Cynical??? who me????

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

How exactly does LUzzi ride ANY horse better? This horse was PUMPED around the track by Leparoux last out and wilted like a bitch in the lane. Tomorrow, he cuts back, and thus will be PUMPED HEAVILY from the gate by LUzzi, the only way he knows how to ride. Don't want any part of him.

As for Master, he was bumped badly early, was in tight until the turn and finished decently in a race where there was minimal passing. (The race chart looks like a dirt race.) What I found impressive is that the horse kept straight as an arrow in the lane while Prado repeatedly beat him lefty. What I don't like that is that BLINKERS are going on. Until the point where he was bothered, the horse had broken well and was with the leaders. So he has some natural speed. Why put blinkers on while stretching out? Bad move.

Looks like a 1ster or Kiaran to me.

Good points here. I was looking for a way of justifying Master as he is cutting back and has some very solid breeding for turf but I have gotten burned with horses stretching out with 1st time blinks. REgarding Luzzi I don't know what I was thinking. So thanks. I keep going back to Kiaran's as he has two works at Belmont and his crew at Belmont is solid. If you notice he had 4 works at Belmont on his maiden which was a very impressive start.

As for a firster, none of the trainers appear to get them going well 1st time out. Of those Caffe D'Oro looks good with some solid and speedy gate works coming into this, great turf breeding and Javi on board.

Thanks for helping me get myself clear here. good luck.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by swedejxn

Honestly.... Races 4,6,8, and 9 are a crap shoot when you can make a case for 4 or more ... it's like playing the lottery... everyone right now (trainer and owner) looking for easy purses with all other eyes on the big show this weekend.... Pick a fav and a shot... play a reasonable ticket and say your "Hail Mary's".... Look for this carryover to build at least two more days to get everyone out to the track this weekend.... Not saying stuff like this is planned .... But I would not bet on Jimmy Johnson this weekend either... he needs to have a bad finish this weekend or next to get those tv ratings for the last 3 races...... Cynical??? who me????

I hear ya but it isn't quite that bad. Almost. And yes, as I was reading the end of your comment I do think I heard the twilight zone music in the background.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Post Scratches

$2 AAAAAA 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 BAAAAA 2,11,12//1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $96
$2 ABAAAA 3,6 //2//1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AABAAA 3,6 //1 //5,9//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAABAA 3,6 //1 //1,7//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $32
$2 AAAABA 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAAAAB 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $96
$2 CAAAAA 9,5//1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 ACAAAA 3,6 //5,10//1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $128
$2 AACAAA 3,6 //1 //2,4//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAACAA 3,6 //1 //1,7//1,4 //6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAAACA 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//9,10 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAAAAC 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //3 = $32
$2 BBAAAA 2,11,12//2//1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $96
$2 BABAAA 2,11,12//1 //5,9//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $96
$2 BAABAA 2,11,12//1 //1,7//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $48
$2 BAAABA 2,11,12//1 //1,7//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $96
$2 BAAAAB 2,11,12//1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $144
$2 ABBAAA 3,6 //2//5,9//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 ABABAA 3,6 //2//1,7//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $32
$2 ABAABA 3,6 //2//1,7//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $64
$2 ABAAAB 3,6 //2//1,7//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $96
$2 AABBAA 3,6 //1 //5,9//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $32
$2 AABABA 3,6 //1 //5,9//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $64
$2 AABAAB 3,6 //1 //5,9//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $96
$2 AAABBA 3,6 //1 //1,7//3 //4,11 //1,2 = $32
$2 AAABAB 3,6 //1 //1,7//3 //6,7 //4,7,10 = $48
$2 AAAABB 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//4,11 //4,7,10 = $96


2000.00

[MISTERGEE]

old fashioned way

4) 3/5/6/9/11

5) 1/2/9

6) 1/5

7) 5/6

8) 6/7/11/12

9) 1/2/6/9

$1920

[Rudeboyelvis]

R3) 1 (poe) Bedford Arch Early

R4) 8 Cellar Dweller Early

R5) 2B Fancy Asset Early

R6) 1X Hold That Prospect Early
11 Weekwee Early

R7) 10 Fort Carillon Early

R8) 1 Carrs and Stripes Early
1A Worth a Shot Early
12 Who Is Lady Early

R9) 1A My Cruiser Early
13 A. P. Light Early

[swedejxn]

3,5,11,12
1,2,9
2,9,10
1,3,6
3,6,8
4,7,10

and

5,11
1,9
1,10
1
8,9,11
7