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  #121  
Old 08-02-2006, 01:52 PM
ceejay ceejay is offline
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Albertrani didn't bet Songster down to .15:1: The public did.
Albertrani didn't say that his horse had an 87% chance to win: The public did.

Saying that a horse is ready is not the same as guaranteeing a win. These are animals not deterministic models! The horse got caught near the wire. It's horse racing, not a money market fund.

Regarding Bernardini I have one comment: 114. That number makes him competitive with all comers in the handicap division (and I throw out SinMin's 116 as Keeneland-aided), but we'll see how it pans out against elders....
http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
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  #122  
Old 08-02-2006, 02:48 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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how can you accept one horses beyer, and then throw out another?? they're all supposed to be figured in a way that in the end shows the horses ability regardless of track, bias, surface, etc....
so why would one be valid, and not another??
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  #123  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:25 PM
ceejay ceejay is offline
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It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.
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  #124  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:26 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ceejay
It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.
ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER
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  #125  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:32 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ceejay
It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?
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  #126  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:34 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER
That's insane to say, the horse is a runner, sure he was aided by a speed bias, but if Baffert gets him right, he will be a very good horse, his sheet # was huge...
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  #127  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:35 PM
ceejay ceejay is offline
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Originally Posted by Scav
NEVER
I don't know if I'd say never. I spose they'll be some 3yo Aw races in the fall KEE meet that he'd fit well is. I don't give him much chance in the weight for age condition stakes anywhere though.
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  #128  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:37 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointg5
That's insane to say, the horse is a runner, sure he was aided by a speed bias, but if Baffert gets him right, he will be a very good horse, his sheet # was huge...
I would be willing to take odds that he doesn't even make it to another race....

I pay absolutely NO attention to sheet numbers at Keeneland, the only time I do is when the horses were returning to Keeneland and they looked like a Keenaland specialist. With them getting poly or whatever it is called, that should change.
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  #129  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:38 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I would be willing to take odds that he doesn't even make it to another race....

I pay absolutely NO attention to sheet numbers at Keeneland, the only time I do is when the horses were returning to Keeneland and they looked like a Keenaland specialist. With them getting poly or whatever it is called, that should change.
Pleasant Home
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  #130  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:41 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointg5
Pleasant Home
Ok, where are you going with this?

Pleasant home ran like four consective 1's going into the BC at three different tracks I think, if you are trying to say that she was a Keeneland specialist
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  #131  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:43 PM
ceejay ceejay is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointg5
So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?
Bernie didn't pull away untill the far turn in the Jim Dandy, and was behind untill he took the lead on the far turn as I recall @ PIM. That's not what I call loose on the lead.
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  #132  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:44 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Ok, where are you going with this?

Pleasant home ran like four consective 1's going into the BC at three different tracks I think, if you are trying to say that she was a Keeneland specialist

No, the point is that you can't make a blanket statement to throw out sheet numbers at Keeneland...
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  #133  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:44 PM
Slewbopper Slewbopper is offline
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Originally Posted by oracle80
LOL!!!!
Never said he was a joker, but hes not in the game's elite.
Neither was Jimmy Croll. He sure knew how to place Holy Bull though.
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  #134  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:45 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ceejay
Bernie didn't pull away untill the far turn in the Jim Dandy, and was behind untill he took the lead on the far turn as I recall @ PIM. That's not what I call loose on the lead.
So he had horses hounding him constantly down the backstretch in the Jim Dandy is what you are saying...
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  #135  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:46 PM
Gander Gander is offline
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How about Bushfire?
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  #136  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:46 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointg5
No, the point is that you can't make a blanket statement to throw out sheet numbers at Keeneland...
One horse.....Wanderin Boy on the other side of the coin...horse is the next superstar on Keeneland old strip, anywhere else he is a 10k claimer(ok, this extreme but you get my point
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  #137  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:47 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
One horse.....Wanderin Boy on the other side of the coin...horse is the next superstar on Keeneland old strip, anywhere else he is a 10k claimer(ok, this extreme but you get my point
What about Louisiana Downs? he ran okay there...
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  #138  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:48 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
One horse.....Wanderin Boy on the other side of the coin...horse is the next superstar on Keeneland old strip, anywhere else he is a 10k claimer(ok, this extreme but you get my point

Aloha Bold
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  #139  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:49 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Have you been sitting with this information till someone started something, I am not nearly as prepared as you are with this crap...all I know is that when I see someone with a huge number at keeneland, I chuck it out completely, and more or less chuck them out also
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  #140  
Old 08-02-2006, 03:49 PM
Pointg5 Pointg5 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
How about Bushfire?
Good example...

Skip Away
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