2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[ateamstupid]

To say that this is a weak field is to grossly understate, but tough to expect more from the sad older male division. If Daaher can work it around two turns, he should dust this group, but with Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid entered, no easy lead for Scuzzy Luzzi.

9th (5:13) Donn H. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Wood Be Willing Lezcano J 115 L
2 Spring At Last Coa E M 119 L
3 Dr Googles Boogles Desormeaux K J 115 L
4 Daaher Luzzi M J 120 L
5 A. P. Arrow Dominguez R 119 L
6 Fairbanks Velazquez J R 116 L
7 Kiss the Kid Castro E 115 L
8 Brass Hat Martinez W 118 L
9 Einstein (BRZ) Prado E S 119 L



6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L

Interested in Fairbanks. I think the horse still has something left and this is the right track for his running style.

[miraja2]

I think this might be the year that AP Arrow really steps up and distinguishes himself from AP Xcellent.

[hockey2315]

It will be VERY tough for anyone in that race to beat Daaher. . .

[Bobby Fischer]

Einstein makes this interesting.

[ateamstupid]

I wouldn't totally overlook Spring At Last. Depends on his odds, but he could be a useful alternative to Daaher.

[gamblin4ever]

With no true stand outs, it should be interesting race w/value hopefully.
But, i'll have to stick by Brass hat.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Einstein makes this interesting.

And that may **** me.
I like Daaher in a tri key over whomever may offer the most value:AP Arrow, Fairbanks and Brass Hat

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

With no true stand outs, it should be interesting race w/value hopefully.
But, i'll have to stick by Brass hat.

I'd call Daaher a standout. Not saying he doesn't have holes, but he's definitely a standout.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think the Grading of the Swale is in trouble.....and if it isn't then it should be.

I sincerely hope none of the good people of Derby Trail are thinking of betting Fairbanks.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think the Grading of the Swale is in trouble.....and if it isn't then it should be.

I sincerely hope none of the good people of Derby Trail are thinking of betting Fairbanks.

They are.....

The interesting horse to me is Roman's horse, but that notion can probably be shot down because Daahar should put him into the ground.

[blackthroatedwind]

I can understand someone wanting to take a shot against Daaher. The major reason for this may, in fact, be the presense of Fairbanks. Not that Fairbanks has a prayer, because he doesn't, but because he could run Daaher into the ground. It is far from clear that Daaher is going to be comfortable rating in a two turn route and Fairbanks is the one who might force him to do that. On the other hand, Daaher is faster early than Fairbanks, so perhaps he will bottom out this subpar field. But, if they really send Fairbanks it could be Daaher's undoing. Either way, Fairbanks has no shot to win.

What I would really like to do, however, is book all monies on the oddly popular Einstein. I guess I understand the connections wanting to take a shot at winning a Grade 1 on the dirt to give him some residual value. However, he's not a dirt horse. Two wins in off the turf races on wet tracks doesn't make him one. He will be severely undervalued.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can understand someone wanting to take a shot against Daaher. The major reason for this may, in fact, be the presense of Fairbanks. Not that Fairbanks has a prayer, because he doesn't, but because he could run Daaher into the ground. It is far from clear that Daaher is going to be comfortable rating in a two turn route and Fairbanks is the one who might force him to do that. On the other hand, Daaher is faster early than Fairbanks, so perhaps he will bottom out this subpar field. But, if they really send Fairbanks it could be Daaher's undoing. Either way, Fairbanks has no shot to win.

What I would really like to do, however, is book all monies on the oddly popular Einstein. I guess I understand the connections wanting to take a shot at winning a Grade 1 on the dirt to give him some residual value. However, he's not a dirt horse. Two wins in off the turf races on wet tracks doesn't make him one. He will be severely undervalued.

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

[whodey17]

I will take Dr Googles Boogles

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

Originally Posted by whodey17

I will take Dr Googles Boogles

That horse is slower than molasses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

That horse is slower than molasses.

Well sure....but in this group I think molasses would be a good bet at about 12/1.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not sure Dr. Googles Boogles is much horse, but if you are betting against Daaher, he's the type of horse you want.

I do think he got a mediocre ride in the Hal's Hope. However, I'm also not convinced he's not slow.