Does the Dosage Index matter?

[my miss storm cat]

Just wondering what your take is.....

A.P. Indy Named Chef-de-Race
Posted: 6:58 PM ET

Steven A. Roman, Ph.D., creator of the Dosage Index, has named A.P. Indy an Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-Race. The move acknowledges the Lane’s End sire’s effect on the Thoroughbred breed, and means that descendants of A.P. Indy will have revised Dosage Index figures that reflect the stamina generally contributed by the son of Seattle Slew. The Dosage Index attempts to predict a horse’s aptitude for distance through particularly influential sires in his pedigree.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...TOKEN=80788055


http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm

[SniperSB23]

It doesn't matter because you have to go too far back in the pedigree for too many horses now cause of their reluctance to add new horses to the chef-de-race list. About time they got around to adding AP Indy. Prior to this AP Indy had the same effect on your dosage as an unraced full brother would have.

[blackthroatedwind]

No.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Just wondering what your take is.....

A.P. Indy Named Chef-de-Race
Posted: 6:58 PM ET

Steven A. Roman, Ph.D., creator of the Dosage Index, has named A.P. Indy an Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-Race. The move acknowledges the Lane’s End sire’s effect on the Thoroughbred breed, and means that descendants of A.P. Indy will have revised Dosage Index figures that reflect the stamina generally contributed by the son of Seattle Slew. The Dosage Index attempts to predict a horse’s aptitude for distance through particularly influential sires in his pedigree.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...TOKEN=80788055


http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm

Well lets see here....horses out of A.P Indy where able to run before Roman gave A.P Indy such an label, I do not think they will all of a sudden be able to run further.

[cmorioles]

For those not familiar with dosage, I'll post the exact formula on how to calculate it...



Just add erratic dart tosses.

[King Glorious]

No. It doesn't matter. The next time a horse wins that doesn't qualify, they'll just revise the system again to make the horse qualify.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Dosage is absolute hackery.

It greatly delegitimizes pedigree handicapping.

[my miss storm cat]

Obviously i know very little about it but what exactly does a horse have to accomplish to gain the title Chef de Race?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Obviously i know very little about it but what exactly does a horse have to accomplish to gain the title Chef de Race?

It's an arbitrary distinction that is given seemingly randomly and the main reason that dosage is completely useless for any current horses.

The concept that you could apply mathematics to the stallions in a pedigree and gain a reasonable approximation of what sort of horse you will have I think is plausible. The way they go about it though is completely wrong.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Obviously i know very little about it but what exactly does a horse have to accomplish to gain the title Chef de Race?

Sort of what was alluded to here.....after his horse's win big races going long they get added. Frankly, it the ultimate redboarder's guide.

Dosage is an anachronism now that people have become more sophisticated and legitimate techniques ( like speed figures ) are widespread for analyzing a horse's talent.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Look at you two love birds co-existing so peacefully.

[my miss storm cat]

Sniper... the way they go about it is wrong..... how?

BTW..... how is it the ultimate redboarders guide?

Not that it matters but which stallion(s)should be and are not?

Again, I've just never really understood the big picture. Assumed it didn't matter but it's easy to make an assumption (even if it's correct) with next to no information.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Because it revises opinions after the race to tell you why a horse won.

[Indian Charlie]

I predict that Giacamo will not become a chef-de-race.
I predict.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Sniper... the way they go about it is wrong..... how?

Many will argue that excluding the quality of the mares from the process makes them inherently flawed but I think they could work even just focusing on the stallions. The main problem is that you are either in or out. If you are in you are weighted exactly the same as every other horse that is in. If you are out you don't count at all in determining the dosage. There is no in between. So as of yesterday any offspring of AP Indy was getting no dosage points for him. Now today they get a whole influx of points from him. If you are by a son of AP Indy then you weren't getting points for your sire or points for your grandsire either while AP Indy wasn't a chef-de-race. There are a lot of well bred horses out there these days that you have to go back 3 or 4 generations just to find a single chef-de-race. So their entire dosage index is calculated while completely ignoring everything in their pedigree in the last two to three generations. That is about as stupid of a concept as you can get.

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks for your insight everyone.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Look at you two love birds co-existing so peacefully.

I've repented and have changed my evil ways.....

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

I bet Real Quiet to win the Derby.
He wasn't a qualifier to win it, going into the race, based on dosage.
But his number became a qualifier when it was changed after the Derby.

Thank goodness I never paid any attention to it.
and this short story should tell everyone, with a minimum of 5th grade reading level, how bogus dosage level is.

Same thing happened with Strike the Gold. If I remember right, Alydar at the time wasn't on the chef list. Then, PRESTO, he was. Not that he shouldn't have been added though. I don't know much about what it takes to make the list but I know Alydar belongs. But the point is that he wasn't up to that point so therefore, STG didn't qualify.

[King Glorious]

Also, as Sniper was getting at, it doesn't make sense to say that a horse should be thrown out because he doesn't qualify when his sire hasn't even had enough crops to race to know what kind of sire he will be? What if Empire Maker sires the next five Derby winners? He still won't be on the list at that point and the dosage people will tell you that his horses don't qualify.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sort of what was alluded to here.....after his horse's win big races going long they get added. Frankly, it the ultimate redboarder's guide.

Dosage is an anachronism now that people have become more sophisticated and legitimate techniques ( like speed figures ) are widespread for analyzing a horse's talent.

A prime example of the fallacy of dosage was Strike The Gold. He had a dosage of about 9.00 ruining Roman's bogus record of no horse winning the Derby with a dosage of over 4 since 1929. What does Roman do? He immediately upgrades STG's sire Alydar's status in his chef de race charts and "Bingo" Strike The Gold has a dosage of 2.70