Top 5 Derby horses at this point

[whodey17]

1) Street Sense - that performance Saturday was better than people think.
2) Any Given Saturday
3) Great Hunter
4) Ravel
5) Scat Daddy

Sleepers
1) Mister White Socks
2) Saint Paul
3) Bold Start
4) Bwana Bull
5) Rags To Riches

Only reason Nobiz is left off is that I do not like the fact that the trainer is going to add blinkers at this stage of the game. I think he does need blinkers but I think it is too late for the horse in order to win the Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Not all horses who are sore will walk sore. Bute hides a lot of things. Sometimes it requires a jog, a canter, or even a gallop to pick it out, or a good feel of the legs.

That's why the people that I am associated with feel the horse's legs at the two year old sales. They can't tell everything by watching them walk or just by looking at their legs. We saw some that walked sore at a recent sale while we were pulling them out and looking at them, and some of the others who didn't walk sore had something majorly wrong with them like a bad tendon or suspensory when their legs were felt upon.

Street Sense definitely does not move as pretty as he did as a two year old, and I have never been a fan of the way Any Given Saturday moves, but it is not as fluid as it was when he was a two year old.

Well obviously, Jessica... I'm not a complete idiot. How about this... as the two of them were coming around the far turn and thundering down the stretch, neither one of them looked sore or appeared to be hitting the ground any harder than the rest of the field and the rest of the horses that ran all day at Tampa. In fact, the only horse that was even in the same ball park as those two in the warm-up was that grey gelding, Delightful Kiss (who finished 3rd, no surprise there.)

Have you seen these horses in the flesh? Are you willing to admit that you can't tell a lot without having been around them?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by whodey17

1) Street Sense - that performance Saturday was better than people think.
2) Any Given Saturday
3) Great Hunter
4) Ravel
5) Scat Daddy

Sleepers
1) Mister White Socks
2) Saint Paul
3) Bold Start
4) Bwana Bull
5) Rags To Riches

Only reason Nobiz is left off is that I do not like the fact that the trainer is going to add blinkers at this stage of the game. I think he does need blinkers but I think it is too late for the horse in order to win the Derby.

Bold Start had a very nice work the day before yesterday.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

im sorry to tell you LIquidity isnt the caliber horse you think he is, he will end up in the high level socal allowance races, and occasionally hit the board in grade 3's and possibly eek out a non graded stakes win down the road

He's not the best of his crop, but I think that he is a better horse than what you have suggested. The thing that I don't like about this horse is that he has lost two head to head battles. He is better than he showed in his last start though because he didn't fire. I just hope that he came out of the race okay.

I don't have a top 5 and i'm not going to have a top 5 until derby week but I do agree with KRIM that Street Sense and Any Given Saturday might need some tough actin Tinactin.

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

He's not the best of his crop, but I think that he is a better horse than what you have suggested. The thing that I don't like about this horse is that he has lost two head to head battles. He is better than he showed in his last start though because he didn't fire. I just hope that he came out of the race okay.

According to O'Neill he blames himself partyly for poor Louisiana effort. Not sure what to make of that. Needs to run well in SA derby or i fall off bandwagon at least as far as Derby goes.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I don't have a top 5 and i'm not going to have a top 5 until derby week but I do agree with KRIM that Street Sense and Any Given Saturday might need some tough actin Tinactin.

Do you think they both have jock itch?

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Do you think they both have jock itch?

Excuse me? I know what Tinactin is and it's for sore horses. The people I work for told me so. And after watching the race on TV I am certain that those two horses have a case of the shingles. Hmmph.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Well obviously, Jessica... I'm not a complete idiot. How about this... as the two of them were coming around the far turn and thundering down the stretch, neither one of them looked sore or appeared to be hitting the ground any harder than the rest of the field and the rest of the horses that ran all day at Tampa. In fact, the only horse that was even in the same ball park as those two in the warm-up was that grey gelding, Delightful Kiss (who finished 3rd, no surprise there.)

Have you seen these horses in the flesh? Are you willing to admit that you can't tell a lot without having been around them?

I am judging each individual horse's movement. I'm comparing them to an ideal. Delightful Kiss is a much better moving horse than either one of those horses even though he isn't nearly as fast as them. And I completely disagree with you about neither one of them looking sore as they were thundering down the stretch. It isn't just about how hard that they are hitting the ground either. It is how they are moving...length of stride, suspension phase, power, knee action, rhythm...etc. etc.

I have seen Street Sense in the flesh, but not recently. I haven't seen Any Given Saturday in the flesh. I can tell an enourmous amount about a horse by watching videos of the horses without even being around them. It ties into why they make videos of the horses at the two year old sales. It also ties into being a handicapper. I get more from watching the horses on the videos than I get from watching them in real life. However, I also can tell a lot about the way a horse is traveling in real life, as well as on video. For example, it is pretty easy for me to tell if a horse is sore when I am watching them work on the track in the mornings. However, I do much better at judging their actual movement (like length of stride and power) from a video when they are breezing or galloping just because my eyesight isn't that great and their legs look like a blur to me. For example, when I am watching a two year old on video, I often times pause or put the tape in slow motion to see if the horse is cross-firing, how smoothly the horse switches leads, how far the horse is getting his front legs out in front of him, how long the suspension phase is, how hard they hit the ground, how far they are getting their hocks up underneath them...etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Keep it coming people. The inside information and predictions being put up on this thread is absolutely priceless. This is one for the archives I'm sure.

I second this. There is some GREAT stuff in this thread.

In case the newest board genius cares, one of the major differences between very good horses and the general mediocrities is the good ones run through their myriad of physical difficulties. The newest expert, who reguritates whatever information her latest infatuation dispells, and is apparantly so good at identifying physical issues she can supposedly do it while watching TV, has virtually locked up the Street Sense - Any Given Saturday exacta in early May.

For THAT, and the laughs, I thank you.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Not all horses who are sore will walk sore. Bute hides a lot of things. Sometimes it requires a jog, a canter, or even a gallop to pick it out, or a good feel of the legs.

That's why the people that I am associated with feel the horse's legs at the two year old sales. They can't tell everything by watching them walk or just by looking at their legs. We saw some that walked sore at a recent sale while we were pulling them out and looking at them, and some of the others who didn't walk sore had something majorly wrong with them like a bad tendon or suspensory when their legs were felt upon.

Street Sense definitely does not move as pretty as he did as a two year old, and I have never been a fan of the way Any Given Saturday moves, but it is not as fluid as it was when he was a two year old.

I always thought that if I was an expert horse person like yourself, that I could use that knowledge to predict how a horse would run on a given day. Now I'm realizing that it is a complete waste of time.

Any Given Saturday ran his best race to date. Street Sense ran not as good as his juvenile race but NO ONE expected that he would repeat that effort first off the layoff so his performance is perfectly in line with his previous high standards. They both achieved very nice 101 beyers and equaled the track record. And all this was done while they were sore and did not have the pretty strides that they had last year. I'm also kinda shocked that two training icons could have done such a poor job not maintaining the horses pretty two year old stride, and allowing plainly obvious sore horses to compete.

The whole thing is quite perplexing, why wouldn't the soreness and lack of stride fluidity show up in the actual performance?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I am judging each individual horse's movement. I'm comparing them to an ideal. Delightful Kiss is a much better moving horse than either one of those horses even though he isn't nearly as fast as them. And I completely disagree with you about neither one of them looking sore as they were thundering down the stretch. It isn't just about how hard that they are hitting the ground either. It is how they are moving...length of stride, suspension phase, power, knee action, rhythm...etc. etc.

I have seen Street Sense in the flesh, but not recently. I haven't seen Any Given Saturday in the flesh. I can tell an enourmous amount about a horse by watching videos of the horses without even being around them. It ties into why they make videos of the horses at the two year old sales. It also ties into being a handicapper. I get more from watching the horses on the videos than I get from watching them in real life. However, I also can tell a lot about the way a horse is traveling in real life, as well as on video. For example, it is pretty easy for me to tell if a horse is sore when I am watching them work on the track in the mornings. However, I do much better at judging their actual movement (like length of stride and power) from a video when they are breezing or galloping just because my eyesight isn't that great and their legs look like a blur to me. For example, when I am watching a two year old on video, I often times pause or put the tape in slow motion to see if the horse is cross-firing, how smoothly the horse switches leads, how far the horse is getting his front legs out in front of him, how long the suspension phase is, how hard they hit the ground, how far they are getting their hocks up underneath them...etc.

Don't you use binoculars? I find that it makes it easier to view them when you are...

[Grits]

I know that y'all are familiar with the late Bonnie Ledbetter.

God, she shows up here at DerbyTrail, reincarnated. In the flesh. Who'd a thought!!

I hope that you hire yourself out for the sales Roses, because folks like Michael Tabor and the Maktoums pay big money for that wealth of knowledge you have.

Originally Posted by Grits

I know that y'all are familiar with the late Bonnie Ledbetter.

God, she shows up here at DerbyTrail, reincarnated. In the flesh. Who'd a thought!!

I hope that you hire yourself out for the sales Roses, because folks like Michael Tabor and the Maktoums pay big money for that wealth of knowledge you have.

Ohhhhhh my!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Grits

I know that y'all are familiar with the late Bonnie Ledbetter.

God, she shows up here at DerbyTrail, reincarnated. In the flesh. Who'd a thought!!

I hope that you hire yourself out for the sales Roses, because folks like Michael Tabor and the Maktoums pay big money for that wealth of knowledge you have.

It really is a crime to see this kind of talent go to waste.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I always thought that if I was an expert horse person like yourself, that I could use that knowledge to predict how a horse would run on a given day. Now I'm realizing that it is a complete waste of time.

Any Given Saturday ran his best race to date. Street Sense ran not as good as his juvenile race but NO ONE expected that he would repeat that effort first off the layoff so his performance is perfectly in line with his previous high standards. They both achieved very nice 101 beyers and equaled the track record. And all this was done while they were sore and did not have the pretty strides that they had last year. I'm also kinda shocked that two training icons could have done such a poor job not maintaining the horses pretty two year old stride, and allowing plainly obvious sore horses to compete.

The whole thing is quite perplexing, why wouldn't the soreness and lack of stride fluidity show up in the actual performance?

It did show up in the actual performance. Not in terms of how hard the horses ran, but in terms of how they looked. However, as BTW pointed out, a good horse can run through their physical problems. It does not mean that the horse is going to last. It also means that I won't bet on races where favorites like these are running. You don't know if they are going to break down or win by open lengths. Besides, I always stay away from favorites anyway. I don't like to bet anything that is under 3-1.

Good trainers run sore horses all of the time. Bobby Frankel ran Empire Maker in the Derby didn't he? Badge of Silver was sore as he could be while working at Churchill Downs before the BC too. He finished in the money. What about BG Cat? Front wraps for the first time and then he all of a sudden has a broken leg after the race?

I actually gave Street Sense a good shot to win. My outlook on everything was that they were just trying to squeeze a few more races out of him and that he would probably be good for a few more starts.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Grits

I know that y'all are familiar with the late Bonnie Ledbetter.

God, she shows up here at DerbyTrail, reincarnated. In the flesh. Who'd a thought!!

I hope that you hire yourself out for the sales Roses, because folks like Michael Tabor and the Maktoums pay big money for that wealth of knowledge you have.

Don't worry, if one of them happens to breakdown she will have one of her 'friends' come on and post about her great eye like she, I mean they, did when Pine Island broke down.

[blackthroatedwind]

Carl Nafzger did a fine job of getting a full career of good races out of Banshee Breeze. I realize you weren't born yet when she raced but she was a very sore going horse.

A lot of expertise being blathered here with virtually no background to back it up. Newbies beware!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Don't you use binoculars? I find that it makes it easier to view them when you are...

No, I mean my eyesight is bad in general. Binoculars don't help.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

No, I mean my eyesight is bad in general.

This has already been established.