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#1
03-08-2007, 07:54 PM
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Tampa Friday Pick 4
Race 6 - OC 32k/N2X - Abt 1 1/16 Turf Wide open race, going deep here.
9 - Equal Opportunity (3-1) Listed Stake winner at AP stretched his legs in January in a race washed off the turf. Will relish the return to the green. 2nd 7 - Gray Mountain (10-1) Couldn't keep up on the major circuits, this is not a major circuit. Going for three in a row. 5 - Bankers High Yield (9-2) Caught late in last for Allen & Allen. 3rd 4 - Nicky the Cat (7-2) Lezcano signs on. Just missed in last at this level. Won Race 7 - Clm 16000 - 6.0f 3 - Kitti Lake (12-1) Turf to dirt, drop in class, third off the layoff and a 3 time winner over the Tampa sand. Surprise package. 9 - Ashley and I (5-2) Turf to dirt, drop in class. Lures Centeno. Won 5 - Beautiful Nina (9-2) First time out for Wismer. Been off for 60+ days after the claim, but GW raises her in class.... Race 8 - MSW 18k - Abt 1 Mile Turf 4 - Slickenside (7-2) Nice series of works since moving to the Proctor barn (32% first time). Ran a credible 3rd in a 9f test washed off the turf at CRC so the distance will be no problem for this Skywalker filly. Won 10 - Klondike Hills (10-1) Adds shades for Joan Scott. Looking for a big move forward here. 9 - Amante Amichevole (12-1) Take note, that was a N1X that she was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths in last out. On the minus side, she is a 6yr old maiden. Race 9 - Alw 19200 N1X - 6.5f 2 - Snakey Sue (2-1) Gold Alert filly easily won in a key race. Right back for Proctor (25% w/2nd time starters). 3rd 9 - Janie B (5-2) Lynne Scace (30% 2nd out) sends this one out seeking her second win in as many starts. 2nd The $50 play: 6 - 4,5,6,7,9 7 - 2,3,4,5,9 8 - 4 9 - 2,9 GL Last edited by Bigsmc : 03-09-2007 at 03:56 PM. 
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#2
03-09-2007, 01:08 AM
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This is a BROAD analysis of Friday's PK4, but here is what i have come up with (in no particular order). This is not my final ticket as im not interested in investing $180 into the ticket (but it might be worth it if a couple of chalks miss the board, which could easly happen with tough card they have on races 6-9)
Race 6) #4 Nicky The Cat (7-2): Lezcano chooses this horse over a handful he could have had in this race makes me wonder why? The horse has been in the money 9/12 times on the lawn #7 Gray Mountain (10-1): Loses Lezcano to the #4, but connections can't be overlooked (Marylou Whitney Stables for trainer Reynaldo Abreu who's winning at 36% clip). Coming out a N2L last out, this horse could be sharp coming into his 2nd race off the layoff #8 Miami Sunrise (6-1): Loses the nations leading rider in races won (Centeno to the #6), but trainer Woodward winning at a 21% clip and has a nice 3F work since last time out. Look for this horse to keep the pace honest up front so Allen/Allen can't run loose on the lead. The one knock on this horse is that he has been the beaten chalk in 3 of last 4 #9 Equal Opportunity (3-1): Why Jose Velez Jr. is coming in for this mount is beyond me, for 2nd time trainer Graham Motion (inherited from Mott) for the Pin Oak Stables. Toss the last race that was taken off the turf and run over a GD track. 2nd race back off an August layoff, something smells here #11 (AE)(5-2) Go Directlyto Jail: Beat a similar field last time out by 2 coming off an October layoff for "hot" trainer Kirk Ziadie (hope he doesn't draw in, but odds are likely that there will be at least 1 scratch in this race and it's very tough to leave this horse off the ticket) * Live Longshot #2 The World Is Out (10-1): Best race in last 3 came on the lawn 3 back and has had a bullet work since last time out * Kid Carousel #6 (8-1): would have to improve a pretty good deal from N1X last time out to this OCNX2 - Bigs: for some reason i'm not sold on Allen/Allen's #5 Bankers High Yield; i respect the bullet work since last out, but they walked in his last race and he was still 2nd by 2 lengths to #11 Go Directlyto Jail (plus i don't like how Allen's horse stopped after the 1/4 pole 2 days ago), and there is enough speed in this race to keep him honest on the front end Race 7) #2 Simply Fancy (3-1): don't like the trip note that she "held 2nd" but it was her first time dropping back from 20K-16K claimers to a decent horse in Tupo #8 Zahira (10-1): shows tons of speed and coming back from a turf route to a dirt sprint, though there is a lot of speed in this race #9 Ashley And I (5-2): Huge drop in class and 2nd off the layoff from OCNX2 to 16K claimers in this one, get's Centeno for the mount coming out of turf sprint Race 8) #1 Supreme Council (5-2): Lezcano/Shug/Phipps..... need i say more? #3 Mabel Syrup (8-1): set sucide fractions last time out 23/46:1 and ended up finishing 5th, takes the step up from MC to MSW but is pretty much the loan speed in this race, may shake lose on the lead # 4 Slickendside (7-2): for 43% winning trainer Thomas Proctor, shows solid works for her 1st time back off the December layoff # 10 Klondike Hills (10-1): tossing last effort on a GD turf for trainer Joan Scott who's winning at a 30% clip *Others: # 8 Hurricane Hazel (9-2): no excuse last time out (bore out in the stretch as the chalk), try's the lawn for the first time. May have to include come crunch time Race 9) #1 Super Splash (6-1): has put 2 solid races together (beaten 2 back by #2 Snakey Sue) and broke maiden last time out, beyers fit race/field, if it falls apart up front this horse will be there to pick up the pieces #2 Snakey Sue (2-1): Out of the Proctor barn and Lezcano get's the call again after piloting her to her only start and win by 3 lengths (more than likely gonna be 6-5 and singled on a lot of people's tickets, if she doesn't win then there's a good chance the PK4 could pay very well) #9 Janie B (5-2): another 2nd time starter winning by 1/2 length in her only start going 5F for one of the leading trainers Lynn Scace *Others: #3 Our Ryan's Express (5-1): Centeno/Zito/Lapenta, hard to excuse picks will be up after all the scratches are taken into account, and once again i would like to thank Bigs for another awsome write-up for todays PK4 at Tampa Bay gl all -bt-
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#3
03-09-2007, 08:25 AM
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-BT-
I agree on Bankers High Yield, but like GPK with Ferrer, I have been burned too many times by the Allen/Allen duo to leave him off. I disagree on Supreme Council in the 8th. Shug is only 3% with firsters and he failed miserably yesterday with another regally bred Phipps horse as the chalk. As I said before, when one of these shows up at Tampa and not Gulfstream, it is for a reason. Red flag all the way on this one. I did love Versailles Treaty when she ran though. GL today. I'll be driving and have to watch the replays later.
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#4
03-09-2007, 08:38 AM
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Only caveat to me is that the Gulf turf MSWs are insanely oversubscibed with not only full fields but full AEs as well. It can be tough to get one in at Gulf and if you're ready and need to run, .... Good luck today!
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#6
03-09-2007, 04:02 PM
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#7
03-09-2007, 04:49 PM
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nice job singling in that race as well. -bt-
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