Theoretical Question-Barbaro

Ive been interested in horse racing since Smarty Jones, but I only follow it loosely. I was wondering how good you guys think Barbaro could have been. Would he have won the Triple Crown? I watched this video and it seems like he won all of his races by a good margin. Thanks


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmgf-ocQFbc

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't believe he would have won the Preakness....I'm quite confident he wouldn't have.

Bernardini got a perfect trip....and ran his eyes-out that day. Barbaro, on the other hand, broke through the gate VERY hard prior to the start (a big negative IMO) and found himself in a tough tactical spot before the injury occured...shortly into the race.

I'm confident there have been many (a dozen or so) better 3yo dirt males over the last 25 or 30 years. He was a sensational turf horse however, and was cut out to be a standout champion on that surface.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by kwilk

Ive been interested in horse racing since Smarty Jones, but I only follow it loosely. I was wondering how good you guys think Barbaro could have been. Would he have won the Triple Crown? I watched this video and it seems like he won all of his races by a good margin. Thanks


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmgf-ocQFbc

It is - of course - impossible to know for sure but I think he would have had a very good chance of winning the triple crown. Unlike a horse like Smarty Jones, Barbaro had the pedigree to run all day and 12f would have not have been the same problem for him that it was for the War Emblems, Funny Cides, and Smarty Jones of the world.
As for the Preakness, I think he would have beaten Bernardini that day. It is hard to know for sure but Bernardini seemed like the classic "public workout" type horse. As long as everything went his way he was impressive, but when faced with trouble (his debut) or with a really good horse (the BCC) he came up empty. If it came down to a stretch duel between those two.....I'd go with Barbaro. I think he was....all things considered.....better than evey horse that has come close to winning the TC in the last 26 years with the exceptions of Point Given and - of course - Sunday Silence.

[Rootdog1]

This DrugS guy has alot of the same views as Oracle...........interesting dont ya think.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

This DrugS guy has alot of the same views as Oracle...........interesting dont ya think.

I laughed!


I'm not so sure anyone can make a rational case that Barbaro would have won the Preakness this year---considering A.) The fact that he broke through the gate prior to the start. B.) that he was in a tough spot tactically before the breakdown. C.) Bernardini fell into a dream trip. D.) Bernardini ran a gigantic number on everyone's speed figures.

[Holland Hacker]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I laughed!


I'm not so sure anyone can make a rational case that Barbaro would have won the Preakness this year---considering A.) The fact that he broke through the gate prior to the start. B.) that he was in a tough spot tactically before the breakdown. C.) Bernardini fell into a dream trip. D.) Bernardini ran a gigantic number on everyone's speed figures.

A.) I agree with you it is rare to see a horse break through the gate and still run his or her race.

B.) How you can you say he was in a "tough spot tactically" after 1/8th of a mile. He was in mid pack a couple spots off of the rail? I doubt seriouslly that he could not have over come that "difficult spot."

C.) Would the Bernardini had his dream trip if he had to look Barbaro in the eye. I don't remember Bernardini looking many horses in the eye and running on. Barbaro on the other hand had displayed that gift.

D.) How much better was Bernardini's Preakness number than Barbaro's Derby win? Keep in mind Barbaro probably wasn't pushed too much in the late stages of the Derby with a six length lead.

I don't think it was beyond the realm of possibility for Barbaro to beat Bernardini in the Preakness, but we'll never know will we?

[MLC]

It's a little sad to try to speculate on what might have been. I was at the Preakness this year (my first ever Triple Crown event). Bernardini and Barbaro hooking it up in the stretch would have been nice to see. I personally feel that Barbaro would have beaten Bernardini, but wonder whether or not a hard fought trip would have compromised his chances in the Belmont.

[Danzig]

everyone is assuming bernardini would still get his dream trip without the trouble early in the race.

it's pure speculation--absolutely no way of knowing. i think barbaro was the better horse.

as for coming thru the gate--horses have done that and won. barbaro showed just how tough he was-i have a hard time believing he'd let bernardini get the best of him.

[sham]

I don't know who would have won that race. Sure would love to have seen it. I'd bet anything though that Barbaro would have been in the fight with Bernardini at the end. I thought the Preakness was Bernardini's best race, so it would have been tough to beat him. However, no one knows how good Barbaro really was. Everyone connected with the horse claims that we never saw anywhere near his best. I do know one thing for sure. We never saw a "tired" Barbaro. That was the most outstanding attribute about him. In the Derby, he walloped the field and never took a deep breath. In the winners circle, he did not even look wet. He had beat the best and never broke a sweat. There is a reason the Bernardini folks went after Barbaro in the Preakness. They wanted no part of that "Dynaformer" endurance going 12fl in the Belmont. If Barbaro had won the Preakness, he would have been 1-5 or 1-10 in the Belmont and we would now be celebrating the 12th triple crown winner. And the scary part...dirt was not Barbaro's best surface. Just a tragic loss for horseracing.

[randallscott35]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/opinion/01neuman.html

[smuthg]

Personally, I think he would have completed the Triple Crown. I don't think Bernardini had the "guts" to out battle Barbaro if it came down to it... I do think that the Belmont would have been his last race on the dirt though...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/opinion/01neuman.html

thanks for putting that up randall. so very, very true!! i almost wish the horses could race without the jock--so tired of seeing the jockeys start pumping their fist, pointing at the sky, etc. horse did all the work!!!!! rider was just lucky enough to be in the saddle.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Personally, I think he would have completed the Triple Crown. I don't think Bernardini had the "guts" to out battle Barbaro if it came down to it... I do think that the Belmont would have been his last race on the dirt though...

not just last on dirt, but last race.


i was talking to a lady at work--everyone knows my love of the sport, and have all been offering condolences to me btw--and i told her he was one in a million...he wasn't the best ever, but when you consider how well he handled everything thrown at him, his intelligence and willingness to put up with all those pesky humans, and all his talent he showed in his racing....he was a special horse. out of all the horses everyone has rushed to get retired so they can make babies--i'd have taken him over any of them, any day of the week.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

not just last on dirt, but last race.


i was talking to a lady at work--everyone knows my love of the sport, and have all been offering condolences to me btw--and i told her he was one in a million...he wasn't the best ever, but when you consider how well he handled everything thrown at him, his intelligence and willingness to put up with all those pesky humans, and all his talent he showed in his racing....he was a special horse. out of all the horses everyone has rushed to get retired so they can make babies--i'd have taken him over any of them, any day of the week.

I agree...pure speculation on my part of course (like everyone else) but I think he wins the Triple Crown and goes on to defeat older horses in the fall, the only question would have been whether he raced at four. Recent history strongly suggests that he would be retired but yet, I wonder. Bernardini is a nice horse but he was exposed in the BCC...look him in the eye and he folds! Barbaro would have looked him in the eye at the top of the stretch at Pimlico and would have encountered as much resistance as the French army gave the Germans...Barbaro was indeed a "once in a lifetime horse".

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

I don't think it was beyond the realm of possibility for Barbaro to beat Bernardini in the Preakness

I obviously think it was way beyond the realm of possibility......

[Cajungator26]

I'm not convinced that Bernardini would have gotten that dream trip that he got in the Preakness had Barbaro not broken down. When you think about it, it was an easy win for Bernie because he raced a few exhausted derby horses and that was pretty much it. Saint was so exhausted he was staggering down the lane.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I obviously think it was way beyond the realm of possibility......

WAY beyond? why is that?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm not convinced that Bernardini would have gotten that dream trip that he got in the Preakness had Barbaro not broken down. When you think about it, it was an easy win for Bernie because he raced a few exhausted derby horses and that was pretty much it. Saint was so exhausted he was staggering down the lane.

barbaro wasn't the only one affected when he took his bad step. brother derek had some trouble as well since barbaro slowed right in front of him.
hard to say what would have happened if ..well. then again maybe not. you can pretty much dream up anything then!!

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I agree...pure speculation on my part of course (like everyone else) but I think he wins the Triple Crown and goes on to defeat older horses in the fall, the only question would have been whether he raced at four. Recent history strongly suggests that he would be retired but yet, I wonder. Bernardini is a nice horse but he was exposed in the BCC...look him in the eye and he folds! Barbaro would have looked him in the eye at the top of the stretch at Pimlico and would have encountered as much resistance as the French army gave the Germans...Barbaro was indeed a "once in a lifetime horse".

I agree with Somer. Barbaro had a look of arrogance about him, like he knew how good he was. He was that smart. IMO, Berni wouldn't have stood a chance.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I obviously think it was way beyond the realm of possibility......

it is stuff like this that makes me sort of sad that barbaro broke down and that bernardini retired when he did.
barbaro never got to demonstrate the true extent of his greatness.
bernardini never really got to demonstrate the true extent of his mediocrity.