July 25 Saratoga Card ROI Wagers go here . . .

[DonGuido]

Bring your C-Note and Play it wisely or take a risk as there's always a longshot or 2 or 3 that will surprise at The Spa.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Bring your C-Note and Play it wisely or take a risk as there's always a longshot or 2 or 3 that will surprise at The Spa.

What's happened to Roamin? He's always the first to post.

[Roamin42]

RACE 10

#5 MIND CONTROL--$100 WIN

[Roamin42]

Originally Posted by cal828

What's happened to Roamin? He's always the first to post.

Hi Cal828- had some issues last week.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Roamin42

Hi Cal828- had some issues last week.

Good to know you are still with us!

[Roamin42]

I have to admit, this is the best group of handicappers I have ever run across. It always a pleasure to be here with all of you.

[Indian Hemp]

race 5
50 cent P3

2 3 4 9 / 4 6 7 8 /4 6 7 8

race 6
50 cent P3

4 6 7 8 /4 6 7 8 / 1 3 5 6

race 7
50 cent P3

4 6 7 8 / 1 3 5 6/ 3 4 5 12

race 9

$4 Win

5

thanks RQ and good luck all

[JolyB]

Going to try one of the most overlooked wagers available, the quinella [some call it the poor man's exacta box]. NYRA offers it only for races 2 and 4; most tracks not at all. Just a fun alternative, so here goes.

Race 2:

$35 Quinella: 2-5
$35 Quinella: 5-7
$30 Quinella: 2-7

Good luck to all and thank you to Real Quiet for scoring.

[Plenilune]

r6 $50 W #8

r9 $50 W #3

[DonGuido]

Race 3:

$25 tri 5/6/1,3
$25 tri 5/1/3,6

Enjoy the day!!!

[RUFFIAN]

EITHER I'M A 'LUCKY GIRL'
OR EXTREMELY FOOLISH ONE
DOUBTFUL THESE PIX WILL WIN
WHEN ALL IS SAID & DONE

RACE 2
#4 -------- $28 WIN {LUCKY GIRL}
=============================

RACE 5
#6 -------- $30 WIN {UNPRECEDENTED}
==================================

RACE 9
#1 -------- $18 WIN {COURAGEOUS {CAT} CONTENDER}
===============================================

RACE 11
#3 -------- $24 WIN {MIZZEN THE MARK}
==================================

FRISKY FELINE CATNIP FOR THE QUIET ONE

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by Roamin42

Hi Cal828- had some issues last week.

Hope you took care of the issues. Not the same here without you.

[Real Quiet]

Race 7 $50 Grand Slam 7 w 7 w 4 w 2-4

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

Race 7 $50 Grand Slam 7 w 7 w 4 w 2-4

Way to swing for the fences. Hope it's a tape measure shot.

[cal828]

R2

$10 Tri 7//2,5//2,5=$20

$5 Tri 2,5//7//2,5=$10

R7

$5 Tri 8//7//3,4,6,9=$20

$5 Tri 6,7//8//6,7=$10

R10

$10 Tri 4//2,5//2,3,5=$40

[NJ Stinks]

Total Bets - $100


$2 Pick 3: (cost - 1x8x1x$2 = $16)
Race 7 - #6
Race 8 - all
Race 9 - #3

Race 7 - $22 to win on #6

Race 9 - $40 to win on #3
$2 exacta backwheel: all on top with #3 finishing second (cost - 11x2= $22)

[cruzan200246]

R2. Theodora Grace $25 Win
R5. 6 Unprecedented $25 Win
R8. 4 Bluegras Smile $25 Win
R9. 10 Turbo Drive $25 Win

[DonGuido]

Well I'm learning when to bet a tri box. Like in Race 3, thought about it but nope changed my mind. $12 tri box paid $204. Woulda shoulda coulda.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Well I'm learning when to bet a tri box. Like in Race 3, thought about it but nope changed my mind. $12 tri box paid $204. Woulda shoulda coulda.

Picking horses is only half the battle. I've long maintained that money management is just as important, or perhaps even more important to being a successful horseplayer.

One of the virtues of our ROI competition is the chance to try various wagers or structures of wagers to learn which approaches work the best for each of our personal handicapping styles.

In the Ballston Spa, Sistercharlie didn't look like the dominant horse she was in the past.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Well I'm learning when to bet a tri box. Like in Race 3, thought about it but nope changed my mind. $12 tri box paid $204. Woulda shoulda coulda.

Don, I've thought about your post for a while, because it expresses one of the major horseplayer's dilemmas - to box or not to box.

In the Ballston Spa, I'm assuming that most narrowed the contenders down to the top three, at least for the top two slots of their trifectas. After that came the decision - how do I structure the wager. Boxing the three is by far the easiest approach, but by doing that you are really saying, "I think that Call Me Love has an equal chance of winning as Sistercharlie does". If that is what your handicapping analysis or your gut tells you, great - send it in. But, and to me this is a huge but, if your handicapping analysis tells you that Sistercharlie would probably win the race 75% of the times that it might be run, why would you want to place a bet that in effect says that she should win the race 33% of the time?

Another approach that I try to use, although it takes more time and can drive you crazy when it doesn't work, is to scale the amount of the wager on each combination to sort of reflect what you think the likely result will be. You could play each of the 6 trifecta combos of those three contenders, but with, say, $4 on those with Sistercharlie on top, $2 with Starship Jubilee on top and $1 with Call Me Love on Top. That might also lead to a more uniform payout, since the mutuel on the 5-6-1 undoubtedly was going to be much smaller than the 6-1-5 ended up.

Obviously, there is no single correct answer, and horseplayers have been debating this forever. It's just an approach that has work a little bit better for me over the years in the ongoing attempt to overcome the huge takeouts on exotic wagers.

Glad to discuss this topic more if you would like.