Breeders' Cup Juvenile: A Wide Open Affair

[Doonior1]

In my last of four articles featuring value plays in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile races, I look at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where the favorite may go off at odds of 4/1. This is a good betting race, and there is a lot of value to be found here. Let's take a look.

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/10/2...e-open-affair/

[kingsize14u]

I always enjoy your write-ups. Keep em coming.

[Easy Goer Otis]

The more I delve into this race, the more the undefeated Canadian horse Riker intrigues.

Watching videos of his races, he has never seen the backside of another horse and races freely on the lead in what looks like an easy gallop.

These are the fractions of his races. Nicolas Gonzalez trains and Jesse Campbell rides. I like how the horse is managing his energy on the lead as he stretches out:

5f 22.5 45.5
6f 22.5 45.1 1.09
7f 24.3 47.3 1.10
8.5f 24.1 48.9 1.14 1.37 1.44

Could be wrong, but I think they are using the shorter finish line for this race. If so, being near the lead at the top of the stretch is essential.

Obvious questions are class and poly to dirt, but he certainly seems fast. I will take ML 15-1 on the speed of the race all day long.

Otis

[senator L]

He should go a long way. Looks like only Nyquist
will push him. Jesse Campbell rides well on the lead too

[Round Pen]

Interesting observation on Riker, It made me go Back and look at him again. if your a sheet player(Thorograph) I think he is way to Slow. Plus his last 2 races have been against 5 horse fields. But you never know until they put them in the Gate..

[Easy Goer Otis]

Absolutely, Round Pen!

You never know how a horse's action will translate from synthetic to dirt. I just love the way he skips over the Woodbine surface, with his ears pricked and looking like he runs so easy and natural into the bit.

To your point about the Rags, I agree. But for a horse that is so unexposed up to this point and who has the ability to get an easy lead heading into a short turn, 15-1 seems too juicy to pass up.

Also, he is a half brother to Cashel Castle (by Silver Ghost) who won the G3 Lafeyette in 2002 at Keeneland over 7f on dirt. Cashel Castle made 11 starts and won 5 with 3 seconds and 1 third. He made $240k and earned a top TFUS fig of 107.

Leaving tomorrow at noon. Five hours in the car to convince my two buddies to help stake me in the BCBC. ;-)

Cheers,

Otis

[Easy Goer Otis]

FYI. Team Valor and Gary Barber purchased 75% share of Riker yesterday. Sold out in 30 minutes.

While I did not get in on this syndication, it should be a very exciting addition to the TVI 3yo stable.

O