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#1
10-04-2014, 07:15 AM
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10/4: Keeneland (4th-10th)
Wet weather only slightly dampened the enthusiastic reception for Keeneland Friday and a much more picturesque day expected for Saturday. Was humming along until the Alcibiades collapsed into a scrum for the late runners and imported Peace and War picked up the pieces at 23-1. Some early scores boosted the Lexington opener as Joan Scott's Best Value idea Ambidextrous Alex ($22.40) ended a $93 P3 and keyed the nice $224 triple over favorites Tapit Wicked and Exodus. Fun start to the newest incantation of Keeneland. Jope everyone did well. I'll stay with the venue today with a nicer afternoon expected there than in New York.
KEENELAND PRE-SCRATCHES 4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD) 2nd division of juvy routers features slightly less experienced set than in Race 2. Nothing particularly clever to note though Vogner (Point Given), Calumet H/B half to Skyring, looks mildly appealing as price inclusion moving to main track off turf route debut.. Most Likely: #6 Frammento 3-1 WON ($7.60) Best Value: #2 Westbound 6-1 5th Next Best: #9 Starbound 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Vogner 10-1 9th 5th: 18th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD) Always potential for chaos in quality lawn dash and this has real pace signed on to guarantee an honest running. Not adventurous tabbing co-2nd choice Marchman (7-2) here, but No Distinction (20-1) seems capable of juicing up the mutuels.. Most Likely: #10 Marchman 7-2 6th Best Value: #3 No Distinction 20-1 4th Next Best: #11 Spring to the Sky 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #5 Positive Side 12-1 8th 6th: 34th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, All Stakes P4, P3) Found this trickier than it should be and admit to not having a great feel for how it plays out. R Free Roll and Stonetastic obviously have races that win this easily. Southern Honey has a look setting up behind the speed. WO-based runners Leigh Court returns to dirt and Northern Passion sees a dry fast main for the first time.. Most Likely: #5 Stonetastic 2-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Southern Honey 5-1 2nd Next Best: #3 R Free Roll 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #4 SCR 7th: 17th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Don't you feel as if you know all of these intimately? Don't discount Better Lucky's chance for a repeat here at a square price.. Best Value: #5 Better Lucky 6-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Dayatthespa 3-1 WON ($9.60) Exotics Use: #1 Filimbi 7-2 3rd Super Add: #8 Somali Lemonade 9-2 5th 8th: 101st Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD) Didn't help get us to the winner or show runner, but discussed the potential for chaos in Friday's Alcibiades based on pace and stretchouts and collapse scenario unfolded on cue. This group didn't look as hot-blooded at first glance, but there are enough fast-early types and prompters to ensure this is run fairly. Top 4 ML faves all have established themselves (Carpe Diem, Bold Conquest, Conquest Tsunami, Hashtag Bourbon), but Ike Walker (8-1) looks like a live key from Stidham and the Thrashes showing steady improvement at Chicago and with a right to jump up first time dirt. The Bellamy Road colt sold for twice the average of his sire's yearlings, should appreciate the 2 turns and gets barn's go-to rider in Albarado who should set up shop towards the front of the second flight.. Best Value: #9 IKE WALKER 8-1 12th Next Best: #6 Bold Conquest 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Carpe Diem 4-1 WON ($6.80) Super Add: #10 Hashtag Bourbon 4-1 7th 9th: 29th Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD) Always willing to believe Wise Dan is vulnerable, but confidence of typically austere LoPresti rather telling of expectations for champ on course he relishes. Sayaad, Grand Arch, Seek Again and Kaigun all pose authentic threat.. Most Likely: #6 Wise Dan 4-5 WON ($3.60) Best Value: #1 Sayaad 12-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Seek Again 7-2 - Exotics Use: #3 Grand Arch 12-1 2nd <$75 P4 Grid: 6: 5-6 (A), 3-4/SCR (B), 2-7 (C) 7: 1-5-7 (A), 8 (B), 6-9 (C) 8: 9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-7-10 (C) 9: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C) All A Entries 1 $1.00 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6 - $6.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6 - $3.00 3 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 8 with 9 with 6 - $1.00 4 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 5,6 with 6 - $6.00 5 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 1,8 - $6.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 9 with 6 - $1.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,5,7 with 5,6 with 6 - $6.00 8 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 1,8 - $6.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 8 with 5,6 with 6 - $2.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 8 with 9 with 1,8 - $2.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,8 - $12.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6 - $3.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 6,9 with 9 with 6 - $2.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 1,7,10 with 6 - $9.00 15 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 3,4,5 - $9.00 Total: $74.00 10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5) Pletcher and Coolmore unveil $950,000 Malibu Moon filly Enchantress here and it will be surprising if she isn't ready at first asking. Notable as the as the highest priced filly and last hip to sell at Barrett's March Sale this year, she was selected by Pletcher himself who has an affinity for Malibu Moon female progeny (Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Malibu Prayer, et al).. Most Likely: #7 Enchantress 3-1: See above; Expensive bay well-drilled for bow.. WON ($5.20) Next Best: #4 Pattitude 6-1: Foley City Zip miss moves to main for 2nd start.. 4th Best Value: #11 White Clover 8-1: Half to accomplished GSW Ermine.. 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Zeven 4-1 2nd Hi-5 Play: #2 Pinata Cat 10-1 7th <$75 P5 Play: 6: 2-3-4/SCR-5-6-7 7: 1-5-7 8: 5-6-9-10 9: 1-6 10: 7 5x3x4x2x1 = 120 x .50 = $60 $0.50 Pick-5 (2/7/5/6/7) Paid $477.35 $0.50 Pick-5 (2/7/5/6/7) Paid $7.75 (4OF5) x 10 = $77.50 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-5-7 (A), 8 (B), 6-9 (C) 8: 9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-7-10 (C) 9: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-3-4-5 (C) 10: 7 (A), 4-11 (B), 2-9 (C) All A Entries 1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 6 with 7 - $3.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 6 with 7 - $1.00 3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 5,10 with 6 with 7 - $3.00 $0.50 Pick-4 (7/5/6/7) Paid $83.35 4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 1,8 with 7 - $6.00 5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 6 with 4,11 - $6.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 5,10 with 6 with 7 - $1.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 1,8 with 7 - $2.00 8 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 6 with 4,11 - $2.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 5,10 with 1,8 with 7 - $6.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 5,10 with 6 with 4,11 - $6.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 1,8 with 4,11 - $12.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 6,9 with 6 with 7 - $2.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 1,12 with 6 with 7 - $3.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 2,3,4,5 with 7 - $12.00 15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 6 with 2,9,12 - $9.00 Total: $74.00 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-05-2014 at 05:14 AM. 
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#3
10-05-2014, 05:18 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
10-05-2014, 06:36 AM
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I had a cell phone meltdown trackside but managed to get back up and running to hit the late double on repeat a bunch of times..thanks steve
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#6
10-05-2014, 08:43 AM
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Great job, Steve! I am at Keeneland for the weekend and have had a blast. Caught both P4's and the P5 yesterday, too! I narrowed in spots and exchanged a few but they still got home.
First time at the track (day trip in '98 was a blur) and this place is amazing. Should set up a "DT" Tent next year on Opening Fall Weekend... I volunteer to work a shift or two! 
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"Are you losing?" - Mrs. Wire "Winning less than planned" - Mr. Wire
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