Chelokee

[eajinabi]

I like this horse very much. Too bad he wont have enough earnings to secure a spot in the KY derby. His past two races he was checked pretty hard and still he re-rallies. I had a nice win wager on him in the FL derby and I really think he would have won if not compromised. Matz said he is looking toward the preakness for his next. I think this horse could have a future.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Not too many horses get left out of the Derby with 100k in graded stakes earnings (Sunriver and Windward Passage come to mind) and it's my understanding that if they can get into the Derby, they'll run him. They likely wont run him in the Lexington to accumulate any more graded stakes earnings.

[eajinabi]

well he is 22 on the list so as of now he is out and there is still 4 major preps to go. Only way in is if others who have the earnings dont decide to go.

[hockey2315]

Birdbirdistheword has NO business going. . . I doubt Adore the Gold will go now. . .

[declansharbor]

His run in the Florida Derby was very impressive..I believe if Duh-minguez shoots through the hole on the rail, he gets at least a shot for second..Instead, he checked, and Chelokee is out of the derby (barring defections)..The horse that impressed me the most besides the Daddy was Notional..I think that the derby is going to set up perfectly for him..He has enough tactical speed to keep him midpack, and is an impressive stretch runner as well..Cant wait for the upcoming preps, and of course, the big dance...

[slotdirt]

I don't know how well the Derby is going to set up for closers this year though. Stormello's the obvious pace, but unless he goes all Songandaprayer and runs a 44 and change for the first half, I don't think the pace will compromise the stalkers in the race. My point? I think the race is going to set up better for a Street Sense or a Great Hunter instead of Notional or Circular Quay.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Birdbirdistheword has NO business going. . . I doubt Adore the Gold will go now. . .

agree neither of those horse have any business in the starting gate

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know how well the Derby is going to set up for closers this year though. Stormello's the obvious pace, but unless he goes all Songandaprayer and runs a 44 and change for the first half, I don't think the pace will compromise the stalkers in the race. My point? I think the race is going to set up better for a Street Sense or a Great Hunter instead of Notional or Circular Quay.

i think the race will setup perfectly for nobiz

[slotdirt]

Or Nobiz like Shobiz, yes.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i think the race will setup perfectly for nobiz

The same NObIz that was a mortal lock to win the Fountain of Youth??

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

The same NObIz that was a mortal lock to win the Fountain of Youth??

lol yes that same nobiz im expecting a HUGE PERFORMANCE this saturday!

1 Street Sense $1,332,000
2 Scat Daddy $1,308,500
3 Circular Quay $1,116,134
4 Great Hunter $730,000
5 Stormello $642,900
6 Birdbirdistheword $637,000
7 Notional $472,000
8 Jack Junior $400,000
9 Hard Spun $360,000
10 Nobiz Like Shobiz $328,500
11 King of the Roxy $280,000
12 Xchanger $202,890
13 Curlin $180,000
14 Officer Rocket $153,260
15 Cobalt Blue $150,000
16 Cowtown Cat $137,253
17 Zanjero $130,000
18 Ketchikan $120,000
19 Sedgefield $120,000
20 Liquidity $116,200
21 Adore the Gold $114,387
22 Bwana Bull $110,000
23 Any Given Saturday $102,969
24 Chelokee $100,000
25 Teuflesberg $85,442
26 Sam P. $56,500
27 Joe Got Even $56,445
28 Air Commander $50,000
29 Storm in May $27,500
30 Summer Doldrums $21,334


So lets see what happens here for Chelokee to get in. Stormello should probably not run. His outspoken owner/trainer has indicated he will not unless the horse shows he wants to. Birdbird should not run. But the Giacomo effect might take place for a hoplessly slow horse. Jack Junior is in other parts and does not appear capable... right? If Nobiz bombs in the Wood and pulls some strange act again with blinkers, he most likely would not go. I think if Curlin or Cobalt Blue bomb, they wont go. If Liquidity shows poorly in Santa Anita, I doubt he would go. The Blue grass is loaded. I would think that if Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, or Great Hunter run a ratty race(no clean excuses), you would get rid of one of these (or on the other hand, horses considered lesser Zanjero, Sedgefield could lose both). So the Blue Grass could possibly be a big eliminator. Ketchikan does poorly in the Arkansas. I dont know if Pletcher sends King of the Roxy at the distance. Cowtown cat... if he blows it, I dont know as Pletcher has a wealth of runners.

But then you have the problem of horses below, like Summer Doldrums, Sam P., etc... doing the opposite and showing they might belong. Looks tough, but not impossible, even with no injuries.

Then again if the poly trackers that lose, they might really look at it as a prep and go anyway. Why did I even type this, its too far out.

[jpops757]

I think the lightly raced Curlin is going to break another tradition and move forward in the Ark or maybe the Ak derby. Instead of not having the foundation to get the derby distance, I think he has more room to improve and he has shown the talent in his two races.

[AeWingnut]

I could see someone in Pletcher's situation running a horse just to keep a horse like Chelokee out of the Derby or better yet scratching after the draw.

I like Chelokee.

I dislike Scat Daddy

but the SD horse keeps beating me.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i read that jack junior is coming for the triple crown races, i dont know if that means the derby or not ?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i read that jack junior is coming for the triple crown races, i dont know if that means the derby or not ?

from thedowneyprofile.com

Jack Junior Less Likely for Derby Now. But the Preakness may be in his sights. Eamonn Connolly, racing manager for owner Roldvale Limited, told British Racing Post that Britain's 2000 Guineas remains a possibility for Jack Junior (Worth Watching), but he is also being considered for the Preakness, the second jewel of America's Triple Crown.

"He's an exciting horse to have. The Guineas may be a bit early for him, and although it is expensive to go there, the Preakness is a bit later and we know he handles the dirt."--Eamonn Connolly

Jack Junior finished second in Saturday's Group 2 UAE Derby in just his third overall start, and his first this year. He earned $400,000 for the effort.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

from thedowneyprofile.com

Jack Junior Less Likely for Derby Now. But the Preakness may be in his sights. Eamonn Connolly, racing manager for owner Roldvale Limited, told British Racing Post that Britain's 2000 Guineas remains a possibility for Jack Junior (Worth Watching), but he is also being considered for the Preakness, the second jewel of America's Triple Crown.

"He's an exciting horse to have. The Guineas may be a bit early for him, and although it is expensive to go there, the Preakness is a bit later and we know he handles the dirt."--Eamonn Connolly

Jack Junior finished second in Saturday's Group 2 UAE Derby in just his third overall start, and his first this year. He earned $400,000 for the effort.

thank you

And now we read about CQ. The bottom of the list looks a little better. Chelokee gets a bit closer.

[Linny]

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And now we read about CQ. The bottom of the list looks a little better. Chelokee gets a bit closer.

we dont know for sure yet about CQ and there are more preps to be run, the santa anita derby is very very weak a longshot could win that race and come from out of nowhere and make the starting gate, i think tiago will run huge in the santa anita derby... i guess my point is, i think chelokee is a huge longshot to make the starting gate at this point