2007 Kentucky Derby Future Wager

[MisterB]

NO HORSE FINAL ODDS
1. Adore the Gold 33-1
2. Any Given Saturday 14-1
3. Belgravia 29-1
4. Buffalo Man 59-1
5. Circular Quay 12-1
6. Day Pass 38-1
7. Dreaming of Anna (f) 53-1
8. Drums of Thunder 41-1
9. E Z Warrior 41-1
10. Exhale 27-1
11. Forefathers 44-1
12. Great Hunter 24-1
13. Hard Spun 10-1
14. Lawrence the Roman 35-1
15. Liquidity 33-1
16. Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
17. Notional 27-1
18. Out of Gwedda 157-1
19. Ravel 11-1
20. Scat Daddy 44-1
21. Stormello 40-1
22. Street Sense 10-1
23. Zanjero 56-1
24. All Other Three-Year-Olds 5-2

It appears things never change, All 3yr olds bet down to 5/2

[slotdirt]

I don't think it would be going out on too much of a limb to say that your Kentucky Derby 133 winner is on this list. I have no idea why folks would bet the all other 3YO's line.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't think it would be going out on too much of a limb to say that your Kentucky Derby 133 winner is on this list. I have no idea why folks would bet the all other 3YO's line.

We need a (who stay's healthy list) too

[estreetposse]

Congrats to all the Dreaming of Anna backers. If you thought 15-1 was good you must be beside yourself with 53-1... i like her chances after this weeks performance, huh

-bt-

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't think it would be going out on too much of a limb to say that your Kentucky Derby 133 winner is on this list. I have no idea why folks would bet the all other 3YO's line.

If the odds were better, I would. But not at 5/2.

[Mac88]

Only action I got in on was Forefathers and Liquidity, but again just for fun as we are twelve weeks out. Think 44-1 and 33-1 are fair prices on both, especially Liquidity as I put him on my short list of contenders right now

[slotdirt]

Yeah, Dreaming of Anna should really be pointed for races with the boys...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Yeah, Dreaming of Anna should really be pointed for races with the boys...

Slot, I think she was a really poor winner of a watered down group of juvy fillies last year. Got the perfect trip and she isn't that fast to begin with. Long season for her in store.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't think it would be going out on too much of a limb to say that your Kentucky Derby 133 winner is on this list. I have no idea why folks would bet the all other 3YO's line.

Here are some reasons for you:

1. On average, about half the Derby field will be made up of horses not on that list.

2. Summer Doldrums is not on that list

3. More than 400 other Derby nominees are not on that list. Isn't it possible, dare I say likely, that a few of them will show some Derby-worthy talent in the next few weeks? It costs $600 to nominate a horse for the Derby; therefore many of these owners must be at least ready to go forward if their horse jumps up and shines.

4. In the 8 previous renditions of Pool 1 of the Future Wager, the Derby winner was not on the list 3 times. I don't see how this year's list is more impressive than each of those other years.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

If the odds were better, I would. But not at 5/2.

If the odds were worse, I still would have. Down to maybe 9-5. At 5-2, I feel like I've been given a gift. I doubt I'll make a better horse bet this year.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are some reasons for you:

1. On average, about half the Derby field will be made up of horses not on that list.

2. Summer Doldrums is not on that list

3. More than 400 other Derby nominees are not on that list. Isn't it possible, dare I say likely, that a few of them will show some Derby-worthy talent in the next few weeks? It costs $600 to nominate a horse for the Derby; therefore many of these owners must be at least ready to go forward if their horse jumps up and shines.

4. In the 8 previous renditions of Pool 1 of the Future Wager, the Derby winner was not on the list 3 times. I don't see how this year's list is more impressive than each of those other years.




If the odds were worse, I still would have. Down to maybe 9-5. At 5-2, I feel like I've been given a gift. I doubt I'll make a better horse bet this year.

--Dunbar

I bet the field one time and that was War Emblem's year and I got 2.8-1 which was fair b/c the list that year was poor and I knew it. In fact, I think 4 out of the first 5 finishers were in the field that year. Something like that....Mind you they have become better at picking the horses for this thing. The field hasn't won in 3 years.

[jpops757]

We all know that the key is getting the gate. With that being the key, will these future odds be better than you can get on derby day? I was sold on EZ Warior early this week but the sore feet anounced realy made me back up. . The one 3yr old that realy looked good this week-end was the fillie of Team Pletcher Tabor, Rags to Ritches. She looked like she could replace ther CQ as there darling. Dont think they will consider going against the boys but she did step up in the Oaks division.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i agree with slotdirt, but i will go a step further i'd say im 100 percent sure the derby winner comes off this list.

[MisterB]

Lawrence the Roman won't make the derby, has no heart

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i agree with slotdirt, but i will go a step further i'd say im 100 percent sure the derby winner comes off this list.

Well, in that case, I definitely change my mind.

It's must be nice to know things 100%.

Considering that 23% of the money in the Future Wager pool was bet on "All others", you could have bet on every listed horse and guaranteed yourself a nice profit. In other words, the money on "All others" more than offset the 16% takeout. You should have borrowed all the money you could so that you could have had your sure 7% profit in 3 months. That's what I would have done if I was 100% sure of making 7% on my money in 3 months.

--Dunbar