5/25: Churchill Downs ~ $290k Late P5 C/O

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ $290K LATE P5 C/O


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$290k P5 carryover starts here..

Very difficult sequence..

Most Likely: #9 Good Game 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Toolatebabydoll 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Oak Alley 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Play With Magic 8-1 12th


7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Amoss tough of the claim and Lend It Tewmey could be a good lean for small budgets..

Most Likely: #5 Lend It Tewmey Gate SCR
Next Best: #8 Xander 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #6 Sutherland Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Rivalry 8-5 2nd


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Devilishly deep and tricky group. Getting through this likely key to sequence. 1-2-4-5-6-10 the leading candidates, but the other 5 players are not far from their reach..

Best Value: #2 Nicolai 15-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Dapper Moon 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Missed the Turf 20-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Jack's Promise 12-1 10th


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Mountain Bear 'appears' formidable, but he's outposted and is coming back from nearly 8 months off. And there's competitive options in here..

Best Value: #7 Nantasket Beach 20-1 WON ($15.70)
Next Best: #12 Mountain Bear 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tut's Revenge 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Alder 20-1 3rd

$1 EXA (7/12) $26.51
$1 TRI (7/12/10) $721.32
$1 SUPER (7/12/10/2) $3,739.10


10th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (Hi-5)

Lightly raced Next Up as viable as any, should get a good up close stalking trip and is a big overlay at 15-1..

Best Value: #2 Next Up 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Take Charge Omaha 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Flash Wear 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Princess Ny 15-1 7th


C/O P5 Grid:

6: 1-9 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
7: 5/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 3-8-9-11 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x7x2x3 = 168 x .50 = $84
All A's: 2x1x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x1x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-8-9-11 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

7: 5/SCR-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), 3-8-11 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAA): 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3-8-11 in 8th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

Your post convinced me to take a look at the sequence. I’m not far off from you. I love the 1 horse in the first leg and will keep an eye on its odds as it might be worth a hefty win bet for me if it stays at 10/1.

I’ve got:

1,9 / 5 / 4,6,7,8 / 4,7,12 / 1,2,4

That horse #7 Nantasket Beach in race 9 has been beating up on lesser but wow that horse has been impressive. I’m always skeptical of Gulfstream park turf horses but he’s also run well at Meadowlands, Parx, and Tampa Bay. Maybe he can steal it. Another horse worth a win bet if he’s 20/1. I threw in Ak Sar Ben Derby as I expect him to take a big step forward from his 3YO season.

Best of luck. Hoping we both cash this.

[moses]

Steve, great call on the #7 in Race 9. For race 10, I don’t know how that 2 didn’t get up. He looked like the winner and would have won if 1-2 more strides.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve, great call on the #7 in Race 9. For race 10, I don’t know how that 2 didn’t get up. He looked like the winner and would have won if 1-2 more strides.

THX Mose.. That was a terrific effort by Nantasket Beach whose previous win was as good as anyone's and screamed 'bet me'. And there was no reason to give in to the underlaid favorite. Alder was the key to the exotics though and helped ease the anguish of missing the P4 (which paid less than the tri the 9th). Heard from a guy in Louisville that only got the super because he used Alder as his 4th despite preferring several others more. Love hearing that.

Fun sequence to attack. Hope everyone got something.