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  #1  
Old 11-12-2006, 07:47 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,102
Default Remington Mystery Solved

I finally solved the Remington mystery. If you add up the amount bet on each horse to win, you come up with a different total than what they show as the pool total. I have no idea why their pool total is wrong, but it definitely is wrong.
If you look at the final odds that each horse goes off and then do the math, it is clear that they are only taking 18%.

For example, the 1st race today at Woodbine was a seven horse field. Here are the odds that each horse went off at:

On Silent Wings 10.25
Geniver 3.80
Sunadir 12.10
Gold Quill 6.05
Elusive A.C. 4.65
Straightlittlelady 2.20
Lucky Jen 3.90

When you do the math, you can see that this adds up to an 18% take. The thing that is so confusing is that the pool numbers are wrong. When I called the track the other day to check the numbers, they assured me that the numbers were right, but they are not. In that 1st race today at Woodbine, youbet.com shows the total win pool as $23,839. It shows that the winner(Straightlittlelady) had $5,100 bet on her to win. If that were correct then Straightlittlelady would have gone off at 2.80-1 and not 2.20-1. If you add up the amount bet to win on each horse in the race, the total comes out to $19,779, not $23,839. I have no idea where they got $23,839.

Anyway, the bottom line is that these tracks are in fact taking 18%.
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  #2  
Old 11-13-2006, 08:57 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I finally solved the Remington mystery. If you add up the amount bet on each horse to win, you come up with a different total than what they show as the pool total. I have no idea why their pool total is wrong, but it definitely is wrong.
If you look at the final odds that each horse goes off and then do the math, it is clear that they are only taking 18%.

For example, the 1st race today at Woodbine was a seven horse field. Here are the odds that each horse went off at:

On Silent Wings 10.25
Geniver 3.80
Sunadir 12.10
Gold Quill 6.05
Elusive A.C. 4.65
Straightlittlelady 2.20
Lucky Jen 3.90

When you do the math, you can see that this adds up to an 18% take. The thing that is so confusing is that the pool numbers are wrong. When I called the track the other day to check the numbers, they assured me that the numbers were right, but they are not. In that 1st race today at Woodbine, youbet.com shows the total win pool as $23,839. It shows that the winner(Straightlittlelady) had $5,100 bet on her to win. If that were correct then Straightlittlelady would have gone off at 2.80-1 and not 2.20-1. If you add up the amount bet to win on each horse in the race, the total comes out to $19,779, not $23,839. I have no idea where they got $23,839.

Anyway, the bottom line is that these tracks are in fact taking 18%.
I don't consider the mystery solved. How do we know that the "error" is in the pool total. Maybe there is money in the pool that has not been allocated to any individual horse for some reason. I'm not asserting intentional fraud, I'm asserting incompetence. And incompetence can result in certain bettors unintentionally getting screwed.

Someone in authority at these tracks or at YouBet ought to be able to explain why the pool total is NOT the sum of the individual amounts.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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  #3  
Old 11-13-2006, 09:57 AM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
I don't consider the mystery solved. How do we know that the "error" is in the pool total. Maybe there is money in the pool that has not been allocated to any individual horse for some reason. I'm not asserting intentional fraud, I'm asserting incompetence. And incompetence can result in certain bettors unintentionally getting screwed.

Someone in authority at these tracks or at YouBet ought to be able to explain why the pool total is NOT the sum of the individual amounts.

--Dunbar
I will call Remington today and find out why the total amount bet to win on each horse comes out to a much lower number than the number they show as the win pool total.
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  #4  
Old 11-13-2006, 11:16 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Location: Northwest of The Chi
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Guaranteed the answer will blame Canada.....
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  #5  
Old 11-13-2006, 11:16 AM
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SCUDSBROTHER SCUDSBROTHER is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: L.A.
Posts: 11,326
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Richie I don't follow these tracks,and the races in question,but you should be able to "feel" the difference between a 18% take,and a 30% take. Don't you think you would naturally feel something was wrong if the pool only returned at a rate of 70%? I think you would.Just like you would detect it if the oxygen in the air of the room your in went down substantially. Even though your calculations were telling you it was a 30% take,the payoffs should have felt like the same payoffs you would get at most tracks(for the given handicapping situation.)Did the payoffs seem off to you,or did you let the calculations take you there?
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  #6  
Old 11-13-2006, 12:31 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
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Net pool pricing (which is what allows CDN dollars into the pool) means the conversion occurs BEFORE the money gets added into the listed pool.
I.E., if someone at Woodbine bets $5 CDN to win on the 1 and the exchange rate is $1.25 that day, it actually adds $4 USD to the pool on the 1.

They're bull****ting you if they give you an answer that it's foreign money coming in, especially at Remington. 99.9% of players in Canada wouldn't know Remington Park from Remington Guns...

More than likely, the error lies with Youbet. I wouldn't trust the numbers they report as "final."
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  #7  
Old 11-14-2006, 04:48 AM
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disappearingdan_akaplaya disappearingdan_akaplaya is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: chicago
Posts: 1,217
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the real mystery@remington is why my fav jock isnt gettin many mounts. shes over 10% for the meet and still shes not riding anywhere near the amount she should be while other jocks who are absolutely brutal are almost ridin the card on a nightly basis there
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