Another hidden turf sire angle

[Scav]

While GPK and I argue about who 'touted' Lemon Drop Kid as a hidden turf sire, I have two others to throw out that I have scored on recently.

Sweetsouthernsaint - (especially first time routing on turf)

Exchange Rate - By Danzig and won most of his races on the dirt

These are two that are fairly 'quiet' angles that people haven't caught onto late. Most LDK's present no value on the lawn anymore but these two you will see some value.....

[Pointg5]

Do you have any numbers to actually back any of this up?

Sometimes perception does not equate to reality...

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you have any numbers to actually back any of this up?

Sometimes perception does not equate to reality...

ahhh but by the time you have enough numbers to prove it everyone already knows and then you don't get the big prices...like with LDK

Its really quite easy to pick out hidden turf stallions. Lauren Stich does a series every year on the freshman stallions and lists who she thinks will be hidden values on turf. All it takes is a basic grasp of pedigree knowledge.

The real attention should be given to who's get is doing the best on poly. Would love to see those numbers...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Balletto

Its really quite easy to pick out hidden turf stallions. Lauren Stich does a series every year on the freshman stallions and lists who she thinks will be hidden values on turf. All it takes is a basic grasp of pedigree knowledge.

The real attention should be given to who's get is doing the best on poly. Would love to see those numbers...

Stop raining on my parade.....

Is one person walking with a curious sway really considered a parade?

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Balletto

Its really quite easy to pick out hidden turf stallions. Lauren Stich does a series every year on the freshman stallions and lists who she thinks will be hidden values on turf. All it takes is a basic grasp of pedigree knowledge.

The real attention should be given to who's get is doing the best on poly. Would love to see those numbers...

Bingo...I could tell you that LDK might sire some turf runners...

It's basic knowledge and a little luck if it's 1st timers, there's really no skill involved in handicapping msw's turf or non-turf, unless you are someone like Rupert or others that we have here and have seen the horses train to see how they are moving. I don't mind admitting that, because I have had some of my biggest hits with msw's, but it's nothing more than looking at the pedigree, the trainer stats, worktabs and a little luck, unless you have seen them train...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Bingo...I could tell you that LDK might sire some turf runners...

It's basic knowledge and a little luck if it's 1st timers, there's really no skill involved in handicapping msw's turf or non-turf, unless you are someone like Rupert or others that we have here and have seen the horses train to see how they are moving. I don't mind admitting that, because I have had some of my biggest hits with msw's, but it's nothing more than looking at the pedigree, the trainer stats, worktabs and a little luck, unless you have seen them train...

more or less you just described handicapping in general -- studying the information given and making the most rational decision based on that information. i would argue that handicapping msw's takes a fair amount of skill -- if you don't understand the pedigree then it's useless to look at the pedigree, so understanding that and the trainer angles is skillwork if you ask me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you have any numbers to actually back any of this up?

Sometimes perception does not equate to reality...

Just saying from what I have noticed those two horses have scored at non-favorite odds, I have caught a $30 horse today and a $18 horse a week ago on those two sires on the turf.

Sweetsouthernsaint's progeny is almost an auto-play for me 1st time routing