Saturday Pimlico Weather . . . impact on race???

[DonGuido]

So if you believe the weather forecast for the Baltimore area, it's supposed to rain all day Saturday on into Sunday. Sat high in the low 60's.

I read that this should not impact Nyquist but I've had little time to study him or others. I guess I'll look and the PP's to see how they've all handled the rain/slop/mud already. With the right horse it usually favors the front runners.

Any thoughts on advantages or disadvantages for any of the entries?

[JolyB]

Based on his performance in the Santa Anita Derby, I would guess that a muddy track would move Exaggerator up quite a lot.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

Based on his performance in the Santa Anita Derby, I would guess that a muddy track would move Exaggerator up quite a lot.

Yes, that's a fact. Bloodhorse reports that Desormeaux is hoping Nyquist doesn't come out of the Derby with the same energy left that Exaggerator will have adding that his horse rebounds and recoups after races extremely well.

Rain and that may prove too tough for the 3-5 ML favorite?

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Any thoughts on advantages or disadvantages for any of the entries?

To expand upon my previous reply, I noticed that Cherry Wine won a 2 turn race in the slop at CD last November by 9 1/4 lengths (although it was an off the turf race, so he might have just beaten a bunch of turf horses )

[Alabama Stakes]

A bunch of turf hosses ? Not likely in November of their 2 year old season

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

A bunch of turf hosses ? Not likely in November of their 2 year old season

I'm sure JB was joking around, in fact I lay you 10-1 odds he was . . .

[JolyB]

Thanks for trying to provide me a way out, Don. That was very generous of you. But I really wasn't kidding around as much as I was trying to express my opinion that I tend to place less stock in a blow out win in an off the turf race than I do in a race that runs on the surface for which it was intended. My hunch is that in the former situation, the runaway winner may not have beaten a field in which all of the runners were on their preferred surface.

Under that theory, when looking for wet track prowess I'd personally be more impressed by Exaggerator's win in the slop of the Santa Anita Derby than I would be in Cherry Wine's win in the slop of an off the turf race at CD last November. Like all other handicapping theories, the horseplayer can use it in his or her evaluation if he agrees or disregard it entirely if he or she doesn't. That's one of the beauties of this game.

[Alabama Stakes]

It would be nice if we had someone clocking feet and reporting back to the board