Derby Favorite

[Smarty Cide]

Who do you think will be the derby favorite? I know this conversation is like a week too soon and we will have a better idea after next week. But I think as a whole this years crop looks like another solid one and I can see the favorite like 5-1 or so. As of now not much separates Dortmund, Materiality, American Pharaoh, Carpe Diem, Internatonal Star etc... and who knows how Mubtaahij fits into all of this. Granted maybe this will change after next week but right now as we stand today its hard to see a favorite at less then 5-1...

[asudevil]

The race certainly has added some speed (or more for that matter), with the additions of Stanford and Materiality.

[Smarty Cide]

doubt we get a long shot winning it this year bunch of good horses at the top of the class

[Thunder Gulch]

The good thing is that it's open because we have some really fast young 3yo's with decent pedigrees who don't need the lead. In many recent years, handicapping the Derby was tough because you didn't see a lot of particularly fast routers (+/-105 Beyer types), so it was a game of figuring out who was suited to pop a big number under fast paces.

[Kitan]

You're also getting three runners expected to take a lot of money (three of the top five, excluding field, from the last future wager pool), American Pharaoh, Materiality and Mubtaahij, that won't win the Derby. That means you'll get relatively good odds on Dortmund or Carpe Diem, and overlay odds on runners who normally wouldn't be in the mid teens or higher in other years, such as Upstart.

[senator L]

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo