8/30: Saratoga (Woodward Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Opening note is that all the AE's demand attention should any draw in, especially C. Brown's Royal Squeeze. Epsilon (Desert Party) a half to Alpha, though relation to turf router Lavender Sky as appropriate as any sibling strength tie-in. Will protect on favorite Firespike WON ($5.30), but think he's the type that will be leapfrogged by new faces..

Most Likely #7 Epsilon 5-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Congrats to Ken 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Tapkee 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Sierra Delta 15-1 10th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

From famed Steinbrenner racemare Dream Supreme by Md'O, Gold Shield a $1,000,000 Farish purchase that Kinsman bought back into as partner. Half to Majestic Warrior working at Fair Hill, so you don't get Clocker Report insight, but Shug regularly live in 7f debuts. 5-1 ML, so watch board for additional clues. Da Jenius was moving well late in 5.5f debut behind sharp Requite..

Best Value: #6 Gold Shield 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Two Weeks Off 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Da Jenius 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Frammento 12-1 4th


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Dangerous Lad 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Mshawish 2-1 3rd-Down on DQ from WIN
Exotics Use: #3 Set the Sail 6-1 WON-on DQ ($18.80)
Super Add: #6 Marine Patrol 7-2 5th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Zayat-Terranova El Kabeir adds Lasix for 2nd start which came in well rated 8/14 heat that produced Blofeld; Kick Off (Bernardini) is FTS out of fast MGSW Game Face that has worked sharply; Royal Son returns for 2nd start after highly contentious debut that produced Pride of Stride; Butchy Reid brings Bird Barrage to NY off Philly debut 3rd which says he expects win early type to improve here..

Most Likely: #5 El Kabeir 5-2 WON ($7.50)
Next Best: #7 Royal Son 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Kick Off 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Birdie Barrage 12-1 8th


5th: 56th Bernard Baruch (G2), 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Spot like this is where you're supposed to try and beat a horse like Wise Dan due to illness and fact that he's giving away 8-13#'s to the field. I'm not going try, but you're supposed to..

Most Likely: #4 Wise Dan 3-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #1e Wachtel entry 5-1 5th/8th
Best Value: #10 Sky Blazer 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Five Iron 8-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 1-7 (A), 5-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
2: 4-6 (A), 1 (B), 5-8-9 (C)
3: 5-7 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-9 (C)
4: 5 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
5: 4 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-10 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 4x3x4x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C method): $80


P4 Grid:

2: 4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-8-9 (C)
3: 3-5-7 (A), 6 (B), 1-9 (C)
4: 5-7 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
5: 4 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-10 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 4x4x3x1 = $48 ($1) $1.00 Pick 4 (4/3/5/4,5,7) Paid $327.00
Full (A/B/C method): $72


[quote=Kasept]6th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Duke of the City 5-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Prosecution 9-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Regulus 4-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Jade Master 15-1 4th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Challenging group with so many making 2nd starts and/or switching surface. Shift Colors, after Set the Sail and Wise Dan, could make it a big day for LoPresti. Mott 2nd timer Colorful got on track late in debut and worked well out of it. Maggie Bryant had a big day last Saturday running 1-2 in the Travers and she's got every chance here with Hope Cross from C. Brown. Chad also sends a seemingly live firster in Justice's Love and Marriage..

Best Value: #9 Shift Colors 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Colorful 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Hope Cross 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #5 Love and Marriage 6-1 4th

.10 SUPER: 9 w/ 3-4 w/ 2-3-4-5-6-7-10-12 w/ 2-3-4-5-6-7-10-12 (1x2x7x6 = 84 x .10 = $8.40)


8th: 67th Prioress (G2), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Quirky group as almost all have similar near-lead running style. As Nick Tammaro explained Friday on ATR, Stonetastic likely offers the most versatility for assignment today, but not one of these would surprise as a photo subject..

Best Value: #2 Stonetastic 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #6 Miss Behaviour 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tea Time 12-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Sweet Whiskey 2-1 6th


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ballerina Belle 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Runway Ready 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Orient Harbor 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Scatcapade 5-1 3rd


10th: 35th Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Clearly Now gets his opportunity for G1 win and obviously is best on paper, but has reacted to big tries in the past and last was huge effort..

Most Likely: #8 Clearly Now 7-5 8th
Next Best: #6 Palace 3-1 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #10 Confrontation 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Big Business 15-1 2nd


11th: 61st Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Can see Moreno/Itsmyluckyday 1-2 all the way around or possibility of the pair at each others' throats immediately. Is this the sport that one or the other of the Godolphin pair (Long River/Romansh) get over the top? Maybe. They'll get trips that put them in position to pounce. Chad Brown pair (Zivo/Last Gunfighter) have their merits. Interesting jockey moves for this include Castellano -- formerly on Last Gunfighter who gets Bravo back -- going to Norumbega with Rosario -- Norumbega's recent regular -- to Stephanoatsee after Lezcano sticks with Zivo..

Best Value: #1e Godolphin entry 8-1 7th/8th
Next Best: #2 Itsmyluckyday 5-2 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #4 Moreno 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Norumbega 10-1 9th


12th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T

Most Likely: #7 Belisarius 3-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Jonrah 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Iron Power 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Special Agent 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lure of the South 20-1 11th


P4 Grid:

9: 6-8 (A), 1-7 (B), 2-9-11 (C)
10: 6-8 (A), 10 (B), 2-4-9 (C)
11: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 6-7-8 (C)
12: 1-7 (A), 8-12 (B), 4-10-11 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C method): $80


Good luck!
Steve

[ScottJ]

The positioning of the Bernard Baruch as the fifth race could not be more of a puzzler today. By having Wise Dan figure into both the early Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences, you are forced to play one set of tickets backing the big horse for all he has achieved on the turf going one mile, but also need to handicap the race a second time assuming Wise Dan either folds his tent in the final sixteenth or does not show up after all his health problems. To me, this "double play" will force some tighter handicapping (and less spreading) earlier in these sequences.

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Bogey]

Steve, nice work on the early PK4 and a decent payoff which included Wise Dan's comeback win.