12/26: Santa Anita Park (Opening Day; 1st-9th)

[Kasept]

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and are ready for one of the great afternoons of the racing year with Santa Anita's winter season lifting its' lid. A terrific card gets it going..


SANTA ANITA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (PL Pick All, P5, P3, DD)

Plenty of speed lined up in the season opener to want a stalker-closer. Hollendorfer Cal-bred Tribal Jewel has been noticably stronger 2-turning and seems sure to be all of his 9-2 or more..

Best Value: #3 Tribal Jewel 9-2 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #7 Sir Bond 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Macho Dorado 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Bobby Flay 8-1 6th


2nd: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Drift King 2nd
Best Value: #10 Smoken Legacy 5th
Next Best: #14 Stacy's Hope 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Stoneside WON ($17.00)


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sky Fox 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Time to Doubledown 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #12 Goodbye Charlie 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Cold Bay 5-1 11th


4th: 40th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Cutback out of big BC Distaff try should suit My Miss Aurelia, but Baffert acquiree Book Review highly accomplished at this specialized trip and supremely dangerous..

Most Likely: #5 My Miss Aurelia 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Book Review 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #1 Mamma Kimbo 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Reneesgotzip 4-1 2nd


5th: 13th Sir Beaufort (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Mandella family may have this race cornered with Gary sending progressive pace presser Silentio and Dick offering hard luck rallying sort Smart Ellis..

Most Likely: #8 Silentio 9-2 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #3 Smart Ellis 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Battle Force 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Fit to Rule 8-1 8th


<$75 P5/<$40 P4 Plays:

1: 2-3-7-9
-------------
2: 2-10
3: 3-5-12
4: 5-7
5: 3-7-8

P5: 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
P4: 2x3x2x3 = $36


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

This juvy maiden event is carded annually and typically produces a quality stakes type (Midnight Transfer-2011, The Factor-2010, Concord Point-2009). Outposted Baffert/Dizney fave Belvin, a half to Apriority and Bahamian Squall, has a big edge on this mostly debutting group. Pedigree players should note that Puype's Cruel Spirits is a half to Leah's Secret; Palma's Lord of Ballandrae is a half to ill-fated Sailor's Cap and though SCRATCHED, be aware that Hofmans' Palm Island is a full to Aggie Engineer..

Most Likely: #12 Blevin 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 Forest Boy 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Footbridge 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Masaru 6-1 4th


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Fable Heaven 9-2 4th
Best Value: #6 We Likey Mikey 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Sarangani 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Rintoo 8-1 WON ($10.80)


8th: 61st Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD)

Certain fixture races on the calendar live up to expectation every year and the Malibu, the last G1 every season, is one of them. Cast of 10 is excellent top to bottom with 4 starters exiting Breeders' Cup events and all seemingly primed for this opportunity. While The Lumber Guy is the horse to beat, he hasn't worked as well under Drysdale's care as Hushion's and there are too many options available to accept the favorite's price. Mandella -- looking to win this for an stunning 5th time in 25 years -- has major player in Jimmy Creed, while Asmussen looks for a breakthrough tally for BC Turf Sprint runner up Unbridled's Note. Politicallycorrect (Ward/Ramsey) and Private Zone (O'Neill/Reddam) were 1-2 in Cup Saturday's Damascus and Rosario displays commitment to maintain ride on Politicallycorrect by making the west coast run. It took Bob Baffert a long time to win his first Malibu when The Factor got it done a year ago, but while you are forced to respect his entrants, none of the 4 players he sends look particularly imposing. Fed Biz and Guilt Trip have paper edge, but Drill is 3/3 going 7/8ths and he and Castaway SCR'D show up here in same layoff manner as The Factor. Fun race is a real treat again this year..

Most Likely: #2 Jimmy Creed 9-2 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #10 Unbridled's Note 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 The Lumber Guy 3-1 7th


9th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 WILD MEDIA 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Soul Saver 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Scorpion Warrior 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Affliction 12-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #4 Delayed 6-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-12
7: 3-4-5-6-8-11
8: 2-4-5-8-10
9: 12

3x6x5x1 = 90 x .50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Rainy morning at Santa Anita. 2nd race already off the turf.

[trenchcoatmafia1]

steve does the change any of your selections of the santa anita card today ?? thanx

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by trenchcoatmafia1

steve does the change any of your selections of the santa anita card today ?? thanx

Perhaps.. Just waiting on the complete SCR/CHG's.

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

SCRATCHES AND CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 26, 2012

Race 1: Scratch #1 Groovin' Solo
Race 2: OFF THE TURF; Scratch #4 Brushburn, #5 Storm in Blairsden, #6 Cherokee Heaven, #11 Newfound Gold, #12 Mr. Bossy Pants
Race 3: Scratch #11 Run Geocas Run, #13 Russel's Run; #7 Rider Mario Gutierrez (124 pounds), #14 Rider TBA
Race 4: No Changes
Race 5: No Changes
Race 6: Scratch #1 Palm Island, #10 Lord of Ballandrae
Race 7: OFF THE TURF; Scratch #7 Winds of Dubai, #10 Generations
Race 8: Scratch #7 Castaway
Race 9: Scratch #13 Just Fishin

[ADJMK]

Can see why you are singling the #12 in your P4. Overcame a bad start in his debut to almost get up for 2nd. Will be interesting to see the money the #8 Scorpion Warrior takes after being 2/5 vs the Derby winner in his last. Long layoff is a huge worry but I don't want to let him beat me.

My .50 P4:

6: 7-12
7: 1-2-3-5-8
8: 1-3-4-5-10
9: 8-12

$50