|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
11-05-2012, 03:01 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Best Bet Back
Unfortunately for me, I was unable to watch and bet this years Breeders Cup (due to the hurricane). I just started to watch the replays today as a fan and maybe in the hopes of catching one of these horses next out. My question is, assuming that these horses all comeback to race in relative near future, which horse is the best bet back? Some will be due to a horrendous trip, or some had to deal with what seemed like a track bias towards front runners. Maybe you have some other thoughts or reasoning on a horse that just didn't fire. Just looking for some ideas. Thanks.
I thought Animal Kingdom was very impressive in defeat. Unfortunately he's a bad example because he will always take tons of money if and when he races again. But I'm sure someone has an angle on a horse that could be a juicy price next out.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!" 
|
|
#2
11-05-2012, 03:11 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
I will offer Brown Almighty, who got another brutal trip in the Juvy Turf.
|
|
#3
11-05-2012, 03:24 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Before you watch any of the races looking for bet backs -- you'll have to take a position on the race track and you'll have to correctly gauge the pace.
When I get a chance to watch the trips -- I'm going 100% under the assumption the track was fair. If there was a speed bias, it was a marginal one, and I know a lot of people think there was one and that will be reflected next time these horses run back. The Marathon was one of only two BC race where the jockeys actually did bother to ride like the track was speed biased. The ride on Jaycito was stupid... and Smith sure rode Atigun like he believed it was a speed bias. The winner came from another zip code behind. He was a long, long, long, long way dead last. As for the rest of the BC dirt races -- here they are rated from fastest to slowest based on how the paces were in relation to the final time: Juvenile (+26, +17) Distaff (+4, +4) Filly and Mare Sprint (+2, E) Sprint (+3, -1) Classic (-1, E) Juvenile Fillies (-1, -2) Dirt Mile (-12, -8) Juvenile Sprint (-16, -18) The Juvenile pace was the other smoking hot pace. Everyone in the race was falling down late. Of all horses, Royal Delta was the one who set the pace in the race that came back 3rd fastest paced in relation to final time.
|
|
#4
11-05-2012, 08:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
John Scott is one to watch out of the Dirt Mile in my opinion.
Had it doubly tough behind a pretty slow pace and he was wide & trying to rally. Ran a pretty good race, but he's a Cal bred, so all value will be lost if he runs his next vs state breds.
|
|
#5
11-05-2012, 11:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#6
11-06-2012, 07:56 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Capo Bastone ran a good race, w/out lasix and what i've heard is he bled pretty bad.
aside from what i believe is the Horse of the Year in Wise Dan, AK's run down the lane once he was clear was very impressive. another obvious i would say was/is My Miss Aurelia -bt-
|
|
#7
11-06-2012, 08:05 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
|
|
#9
11-06-2012, 02:44 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
|
Hybrid Mode
