Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-05-2012, 07:42 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default Projected Morning-Line for the Belmont Stakes

Atigun (McPeek/Leparoux) ML: 8-1
Dullahan (Romans/Castellano) ML: 3-1
Five Sixteen (Schettino/Napravnik) ML: 20-1
Guyana Star Dweej (Shivmangel) ML: 20-1
I'll Have Another (O'Neill/Gutierrez) ML: 1-5
Optimizer (Lukas) ML 10-1
Paynter (Baffert/Smith) ML: 4-1
Ravelo's Boy (Azpurua) ML: 15-1
Street Life (C. Brown) ML: 8-1
Union Rags (Matz/Velazquez) ML: 8-5
Unstoppable U (McPeek) ML 10-1

- Odds courtesy of Presque Isle Downs back-up morning line maker.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 06-05-2012, 08:36 PM
DEES3 DEES3 is offline
Suffolk Downs
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 111
Default

I don't see any reasonable way to play intra-race wagers if you're close.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-05-2012, 08:56 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

The actual odds should look something like this:

Atigun (McPeek/Leparoux) 30-1
Dullahan (Romans/Castellano) 6-1
Five Sixteen (Schettino/Napravnik) 100-1
Guyana Star Dweej (Shivmangel) 100-1
I'll Have Another (O'Neill/Gutierrez) 4-5
Optimizer (Lukas) 20-1
Paynter (Baffert/Smith) 10-1
Ravelo's Boy (Azpurua) 60-1
Street Life (C. Brown) 15-1
Union Rags (Matz/Velazquez) 9-2
Unstoppable U (McPeek) 40-1
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-05-2012, 08:59 PM
justindew's Avatar
justindew justindew is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,640
Default

My Adonis is in.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 06-05-2012, 09:05 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Offically?

The last 11 horses attempting to go for the triple crown went off at avg odds of 0.83-to-1.

I'll Have Another will be 4-to-5 IMO.

Union Rags 2nd choice, Dullahan 3rd choice, Paynter 4th choice.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 06-05-2012, 10:25 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Offically?

The last 11 horses attempting to go for the triple crown went off at avg odds of 0.83-to-1.

I'll Have Another will be 4-to-5 IMO.

Union Rags 2nd choice, Dullahan 3rd choice, Paynter 4th choice.
Do you have the 11 individual odds handy enough to post? I'm curious about the range.

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 06-07-2012, 07:55 AM
Powderfinger's Avatar
Powderfinger Powderfinger is offline
Pimlico
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 70
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
The actual odds should look something like this:

Atigun (McPeek/Leparoux) 30-1
Dullahan (Romans/Castellano) 6-1
Five Sixteen (Schettino/Napravnik) 100-1
Guyana Star Dweej (Shivmangel) 100-1
I'll Have Another (O'Neill/Gutierrez) 4-5
Optimizer (Lukas) 20-1
Paynter (Baffert/Smith) 10-1
Ravelo's Boy (Azpurua) 60-1
Street Life (C. Brown) 15-1
Union Rags (Matz/Velazquez) 9-2
Unstoppable U (McPeek) 40-1

Donovan has Dullahan as the second favorite, whereas you and Presque like UR. It will be interesting to see who's right. Donovan has a way of digging out the wise-guy selection. He's usually right.
__________________
!
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 06-07-2012, 08:05 AM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

A morning line is just a guess at how you believe the public will bet the race.

After reading Class Handicapper and 12 different DRF writers twitter away about how well Dullahan is training, I wouldn't be surprised now if he does go 2nd favorite.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 06-07-2012, 08:33 AM
Powderfinger's Avatar
Powderfinger Powderfinger is offline
Pimlico
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 70
Default

Omayad looks like a nice value play. Invasor-like record down under. Only ran once counter-clockwise and did ok. Stretching out which should help.
__________________
!
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 06-07-2012, 09:55 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
After reading Class Handicapper
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 06-06-2012, 12:50 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

I don't think Paynter will be 10-1. Around 6 with 8 being tops.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.