All conventional wisdom may be lost...

kentuckyrosesinmay · #1 09-19-2006, 12:24 PM

http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleind...e.asp?id=35360

3-Year-old Eclipse: Bernardini or Barbaro?

"Let's look into the future. Bernardini has won the Breeders' Cup Classic and it's time to vote for the Eclipse Awards. In a move that seemingly makes no logical sense, yet one that actually makes very good sense, albeit in a convoluted way, the vote may very well go like this: Bernardini for Horse of the Year; Barbaro for champion 3-year-old. These are two horses that both deserve an Eclipse Award, and there is no other way to achieve that.

Look at the 3-year-old division this way: Bernardini has won the grade I Preakness and Travers, and grade II Jim Dandy and Withers. Barbaro won the grade I Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby and grade III Holy Bull and Tropical Park Derby. But Barbaro won on the grass and in the slop, and most important, he won the Kentucky Derby -- by 6 1/2 lengths against one of the strongest and deepest fields assembled in years. Forget his miraculous recovery and the unprecedented publicity he generated for the sport. In the 3-year-old division, he will have achieved basically just as much as Bernardini, who with a victory in the Classic would make him as worthy a Horse of the Year as we've had in years.

So, if Bernardini does win the Classic, it may be time to throw away conventional wisdom and reward two horses who both deserve championship honors."

I don't know if I agree with this. It defies all logic. I can't believe that some are actually considering this. However, Bernardini hasn't won the Classic yet so we will see.

Cajungator26 · #2 09-19-2006, 12:26 PM

I figured they may do that IF Bernardini wins the classic (which I don't think will happen.) I don't agree with it personally. If Bernardini wins the BC Classic, then he deserves both honors.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #3 09-19-2006, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I figured they may do that IF Bernardini wins the classic. I don't agree with it personally. If Bernardini wins the BC Classic, then he deserves both honors.

Yeah, I agree with you. I think that if Bernardini wins the Classic, he deserves both. However, if he doesn't win or finish well in the Classic, 3 yr old honors will most likely be very close. I don't know though. A win in the JCGC may put Bernardini past Barbaro in the polls, but it wouldn't be much of a difference. Barbaro is only slightly ahead of Bernardini in the polls right now. Usually we have a pretty good idea who has got what by this time of the year as far as championship honors go, but this year, it is up in the air.

#4 09-19-2006, 12:29 PM

BERNARDINI, off of 6 lifetime starts, will not win the classic, he just won't. and further,lets let him hit the wire before at least 1 older horse before we call him anything close to a champion, he still has yet to do that.

we all saw what SHOWING UP did when he faced the real horses,not the colts, CACIQUE made him look his age.

blackthroatedwind · #5 09-19-2006, 12:32 PM

If Bernardini wins the JCGC then there is absolutely no possible logical defense of " Barbaro for 3YO champ ".

Maybe there should be a double winner in every group...winner based on merit and top horse in each group that got injured. The Eclipse Awards have been ridiculous for a while and they just keep getting worse.

#6 09-19-2006, 12:39 PM

It is all speculation right now but that will end when Bernardini wins his next two starts.....

Cajungator26 · #7 09-19-2006, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It is all speculation right now but that will end when Bernardini wins his next two starts.....

LOL Joel. He'll win his next start, but he won't win the Classic.

ateamstupid · #8 09-19-2006, 12:53 PM

This is nonsense. Champion 3-year-old should go to THE BEST 3-YEAR-OLD, not the horse who performed best in restricted 3-year-old races.

Can everyone please stop having a heart attack about Bernardini being better than their hero Barbaro? That doesn't make Barbaro a nag or a rat.. He was a very nice 3-year-old.. But Bernardini is a monster. There's a difference.

King Glorious · #9 09-19-2006, 12:53 PM

It would be one of the stupidest things in the history of sports to say that the horse that could be named as the best one in the country is not even deserving to be named as the best one in his own division.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #10 09-19-2006, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If Bernardini wins the JCGC then there is absolutely no possible logical defense of " Barbaro for 3YO champ ".

Maybe there should be a double winner in every group...winner based on merit and top horse in each group that got injured. The Eclipse Awards have been ridiculous for a while and they just keep getting worse.

Aren't selected members of the media the ones who cast votes? I have heard that a lot of these who have voting rights do not have the credibility or ability to make sound judgements regarding these matters. They ought to let us vote here on derbytrail.com! Wouldn't that be fun (wishful thinking)! If that is the case, I think most of us probably know a lot more about what is going on than some of those that do have the voting rights.

Rupert Pupkin · #11 09-19-2006, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secretariat

BERNARDINI, off of 6 lifetime starts, will not win the classic, he just won't. and further,lets let him hit the wire before at least 1 older horse before we call him anything close to a champion, he still has yet to do that.

we all saw what SHOWING UP did when he faced the real horses,not the colts, CACIQUE made him look his age.

I think Bernardini will win the Classic. I think he is head and shoulders of above anyone out there with the possible exception of Lava Man. But with Lava Man, we don't know that he can necessarily run as well on the road and his last two races were not quite as good as some of his past races. I make Bernardini a pretty heavy favorite to win the Classic.

Showing Up is a different story. Even after he won the Arlington race in a faster time than The Tin Man ran on the same day at the same track, everyone on this board including myself agreed that Showing Up would have no chance agaisnt The Tin Man. Showing up had been very impressive but he still didn't look quite as good as the top older turf horses.

Cajungator26 · #12 09-19-2006, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think Bernardini will win the Classic. I think he is head and shoulders of above anyone out there with the possible exception of Lava Man. But with Lava Man, we don't know that he can necessarily run as well on the road and his last two races were not quite as good as some of his past races. I make Bernardini a pretty heavy favorite to win the Classic.

Showing Up is a different story. Even after he won the Arlington race in a faster time than The Tin Man ran on the same day at the same track, everyone on this board including myself agreed that Showing Up would have no chance agaisnt The Tin Man. Showing up had been very impressive but he still didn't look quite as good as the top older turf horses.

Not many would have had much of a chance against The Tin Man on that day. The fractions were ridiculous.

#13 09-19-2006, 01:11 PM

KYrosesinMay
if you remeber our discussion on this matter
I suggested the same thing as this proposal
and you and the rest jumped down my throat
now a "published writer" says the same thing
and everybody buys into it? stealing my thunder
possibly from reading this very board
bunch of robots! programmed by the media

kentuckyrosesinmay · #14 09-19-2006, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BellamyRd.

KYrosesinMay
if you remeber our discussion on this matter
I suggested the same thing as this proposal
and you and the rest jumped down my throat
now a "published writer" says the same thing
and everybody buys into it? stealing my thunder
possibly from reading this very board
bunch of robots! programmed by the media

Actually BR, everyone on this board is basically saying that if Bernardini wins HOY, then it will be ridiculous if Barbaro wins the 3 yo title because Bernardini will be deserving of both titles if he wins the BCC. In fact, I believe everyone has said that what the author of the article has proposed is completely ridiculous.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #15 09-19-2006, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think Bernardini will win the Classic. I think he is head and shoulders of above anyone out there with the possible exception of Lava Man. But with Lava Man, we don't know that he can necessarily run as well on the road and his last two races were not quite as good as some of his past races. I make Bernardini a pretty heavy favorite to win the Classic.

I really believe that the high weights in the Hollywood Gold Cup and his tough campaign are responsible for his last two races not being quite as good. That HGC race was so hard on that horse. It is just amazing that he managed to win with all of the weight that he was giving to the other horses in addition to the facts that he stumbled out of the gate and had horses attacking him from every side throughout the entire race. I think that if he gets some well needed rest that he will be good as new! He ran some nice races earlier in the year, although I don't know if they were as impressive as those three last year. He certainly has been more consistent this year though.

Like you though, I don't know how he ships, and even if everything goes perfect for Lava Man, his best may still not be good enough to beat Bernardini.

Nostradamus · #16 09-19-2006, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think Bernardini will win the Classic. I think he is head and shoulders of above anyone out there with the possible exception of Lava Man. But with Lava Man, we don't know that he can necessarily run as well on the road and his last two races were not quite as good as some of his past races. I make Bernardini a pretty heavy favorite to win the Classic.

Showing Up is a different story. Even after he won the Arlington race in a faster time than The Tin Man ran on the same day at the same track, everyone on this board including myself agreed that Showing Up would have no chance agaisnt The Tin Man. Showing up had been very impressive but he still didn't look quite as good as the top older turf horses.

Showing Up is just as good as any older turf horse, but only up to around 10f. It is not so much that Showing Up is so great, but he fits right in with the good, but not great american turf horses. They all just beat each other over and over and Showing Up will beat them one day, when his turn comes around. Next year he should not have Cacique and English Channel either.

Showing Up though, is not in Bernardini or Barbaro's league. He is likely to be another Lava Man type. Very good, but never great.

Rupert Pupkin · #17 09-19-2006, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

Showing Up is just as good as any older turf horse, but only up to around 10f. It is not so much that Showing Up is so great, but he fits right in with the good, but not great american turf horses. They all just beat each other over and over and Showing Up will beat them one day, when his turn comes around. Next year he should not have Cacique and English Channel either.

Showing Up though, is not in Bernardini or Barbaro's league. He is likely to be another Lava Man type. Very good, but never great.

I think that Showing Up is a good horse. The thing we were talking about on this board after the Arlington Million was how Showing Up ran faster than The Tin Man at the same track, on the same day, at the same distance. So the discussion was about what would have happened if Showing Up would have been in the Arlington Million. Would he have won the race? He ran faster than they did. My answer was that I did not think he would have won. I thought the final time of his race was faster only because the fractions were so slow in the Million. I'm not saying that Showing Up would have embarrassed himself in the Million. I just don't think he would have won.

Nostradamus · #18 09-19-2006, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secretariat

BERNARDINI, off of 6 lifetime starts, will not win the classic, he just won't. and further,lets let him hit the wire before at least 1 older horse before we call him anything close to a champion, he still has yet to do that.

we all saw what SHOWING UP did when he faced the real horses,not the colts, CACIQUE made him look his age.

Showing Up could not hold Bernardini's jock, and while Barbaro might have been better, there is no way of knowing that. Bernardini will win the JCGC and the Breeders Cup Classic, and he will win both easily. That coming from a huge Lael fan. Bernardini deserves the three year old and the HOY if he wins both, which he will.

Betsy · #19 09-19-2006, 04:40 PM

I love Steve Haskin, but this makes no sense whatsoever. You can't be HOY and not be the best of your division, and I disagree with him that Barbaro has accomplished more then Bernardini. It's tragic that Barbaro broke down, but it happened. The facts are that Bernardini has continued to run tremendous races outside of the Preakness and should not rewarded as such.

#20 09-19-2006, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy

I love Steve Haskin, but this makes no sense whatsoever. You can't be HOY and not be the best of your division, and I disagree with him that Barbaro has accomplished more then Bernardini. It's tragic that Barbaro broke down, but it happened. The facts are that Bernardini has continued to run tremendous races outside of the Preakness and should not rewarded as such.

Even if he doesnt win anymore Betsy?