"Spaced" Races And "Fresh" Horses Are Killing The Sport

Here we all are ... doing what we have become accustomed to doing ... waiting ... and waiting ... and waiting ... for something interesting to happen at the top tier of the sport we all love.

Weeks and weeks and weeks go by ... without any sighting of our best horses bursting out of a starting gate.

I did a bit of research a few weeks ago into the performances of past champion fillies ... and revealed that most of them were making 12 to 15 starts per campaign ... and some made several more.

Not that many years ago ... a horse who made fewer than 10 starts in a given year would not even be considered for a championship because of lack of activitiy.

Now ... we're thrilled when the best horses make four starts in a year ... and absolutely ecstatic when they're asked to make a heroic total of six.

Here we are in a banner year for quality race horses ... the likes of which haven't been seen for many a moon ... and what do we get ... weeks and weeks and weeks of waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting.

We're the fanatics ... and we're being bored to sleep. Just imagine how this plays with the general public.

[paisjpq]

I find it hard to believe this let alone say it...but for once Bold I COMPLETELY agree with you.

[PSH]

Bold Brooklyn:

Great post. Did Forego ever miss a race - at least once a month under 130 pounds or more?


I read that the average horse makes 7 starts per year...
Yes, it makes sense to space races and yes an extra week off probably is beneficial but why can't we get 9-10 starts per year?

Horses are being ruined by these early 2 year old sales which a horse runs 11 seconds per 1/8 mile and their knees aren't even closed yet. The horse then starts in April in Keeneland in MSW races and we never hear about them again after they are 3...

I don't know if the breeding has anything to do with it or not. The predominant Mr. Prospector - Northern Dancer outcross which appears in over 90% of horses bred today may or may not contribute to speed and the lack of durability....

PSH

[Phalaris1913]

Great post. Did Forego ever miss a race - at least once a month under 130 pounds or more?

Actually, yes. He missed the end of the season due to injury in all of his later years on the track.

1975: Injury to leg prevented JCGC participation
1976: Ankle trouble; dropped from JCGC consideration days before race
1977: Ankle injury prevented likely starts in Marlboro Cup and JCGC.

I read that the average horse makes 7 starts per year...
Yes, it makes sense to space races and yes an extra week off probably is beneficial but why can't we get 9-10 starts per year?

Horses are being ruined by these early 2 year old sales which a horse runs 11 seconds per 1/8 mile and their knees aren't even closed yet. The horse then starts in April in Keeneland in MSW races and we never hear about them again after they are 3...
?

We're down to about 6.5 starts per season now. There has been a decline in the average number of starts per season every year since 1992 and a general trend toward it since the early 1960s. 2YO-in-training sales probably have nothing to do with it, considering that back in the 1960s, when horses averaged more than 10 starts a year in this country, it was perfectly normal for 2YOs to be running in real races in January and February. Decent horses on good going routinely covered 3fs in 33 and change and faster. I started a project of studying the future race records of these horses and ran out of time before I got very far, but found that a large number of the horses I'd checked up until then went on to have long careers.

I don't know if the breeding has anything to do with it or not. The predominant Mr. Prospector - Northern Dancer outcross which appears in over 90% of horses bred today may or may not contribute to speed and the lack of durability....

Two words: Native Dancer. That pretty much covers the Northern Dancer/Mr Prospector axis, as Native Dancer is the grandsire, through unsound offspring, of both. However, it doesn't help that pretty much every breeding line that once produced durable horses has been discarded as unfashionable.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Phalaris1913

Actually, yes. He missed the end of the season due to injury in all of his later years on the track.

1975: Injury to leg prevented JCGC participation
1976: Ankle trouble; dropped from JCGC consideration days before race
1977: Ankle injury prevented likely starts in Marlboro Cup and JCGC.



We're down to about 6.5 starts per season now. There has been a decline in the average number of starts per season every year since 1992 and a general trend toward it since the early 1960s. 2YO-in-training sales probably have nothing to do with it, considering that back in the 1960s, when horses averaged more than 10 starts a year in this country, it was perfectly normal for 2YOs to be running in real races in January and February. Decent horses on good going routinely covered 3fs in 33 and change and faster. I started a project of studying the future race records of these horses and ran out of time before I got very far, but found that a large number of the horses I'd checked up until then went on to have long careers.



Two words: Native Dancer. That pretty much covers the Northern Dancer/Mr Prospector axis, as Native Dancer is the grandsire, through unsound offspring, of both. However, it doesn't help that pretty much every breeding line that once produced durable horses has been discarded as unfashionable.

If you took out the stats for the upper level Stakes horses would you find that average starts are declining as quickly?

[randallscott35]

This is once again why I upgrade the amazing year Mineshaft had a few back. Every 3-4 weeks like clockwork and no bounces ever.


But yes, it is a negative for the sport.

[FATPIANO]

Blame The Breeders Cup.............These days all you have to do is win one or two races and then win the BC and you are champion.........what a shame

[Phalaris1913]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

If you took out the stats for the upper level Stakes horses would you find that average starts are declining as quickly?

Unfortunately, the lack of readily available data in electronic form prevents an easy answer to that. I'm working on a project which will eventually have race records for stakes winners across a lengthy span of time (which could then be compared to contemporary breed norms), but for practical reasons, I had to rearrange the order in which I am doing certain tasks so I won't be working on that aspect for a long time, probably years.

Sticking to relatively current data, I can run average start-per-season figures for crops back to the early 1990s. During this recent span, it appears that the horses who earned significantly more than average for a year (generally indicative of better stakes-caliber form) show a faster decline in average starts per season, but started at a much higher average compared to lesser-earning runners. I would be curious to see what would happen if I ran comparable numbers for more distant times, as the current trend toward fewer starts per season was well-established by the early 1990s.

Originally Posted by Phalaris1913

2YO-in-training sales probably have nothing to do with it, considering that back in the 1960s, when horses averaged more than 10 starts a year in this country, it was perfectly normal for 2YOs to be running in real races in January and February. Decent horses on good going routinely covered 3fs in 33 and change and faster. I started a project of studying the future race records of these horses and ran out of time before I got very far, but found that a large number of the horses I'd checked up until then went on to have long careers.

I did research on this ... which I published on the "other" forum last year ...

... and it showed that 26 champions from the 1940s thorugh the 1960s started their 2YO careers in February, March or April ... and 25 of them ... all except Hail To Reason ... had full, essentially injury-free careers.

Now ... this may have been a Darwinian outcome ... the survivial of the fittest ... but I really don't think so.

I'm absolutely convinced that racing early and racing often is more beneficial to developing race horses into professional athletes ... than months and months of shedrow walks and three spaced races per year.

Someone please convince me otherwise ... with hard statistics.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

I did research on this ... which I published on the "other" forum last year ...

... and it showed that 26 champions from the 1940s thorugh the 1960s started their 2YO careers in February, March or April ... and 25 of them ... all except Hail To Reason ... had full, essentially injury-free careers.

Now ... this may have been a Darwinian outcome ... the survivial of the fittest ... but I really don't think so.

I'm absolutely convinced that racing early and racing often is more beneficial to developing race horses into professional athletes ... than months and months of shedrow walks and three spaced races per year.

Someone please convince me otherwise ... with hard statistics.

I certainly can't, perhaps others have access to such data. There were studies done in Europe that appeared to demonstrate increased bone mass and tendon strength in horses racing early and often at two, but I understand there has been a problem with replication of results and one would think that shouldn't be the case with a "Historical" type study so...
It's just my personal feeling that pushing everything back a year would be beneficial...a moot point as long as money dictates such things (that reads as NEVER). My point remains that the problem is in the breeding...breed the best to the best and hope for the best has changed to breed the fastest developing to the most fragile and make a quick buck while the horse can still stand!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

I find it hard to believe this let alone say it...but for once Bold I COMPLETELY agree with you.

lol, I had the same reaction, paisjpq! Can I REALLY be agreeing with BB?

Earlier this morning I re-checked the date for the JCGC and thought, soooo long to wait!

I was hoping Phalaris would chime in, too. As opposed to most who will comment on why horses can and cannot run more often today, Phalaris has substantial data supporting what he/she says.

--Dunbar

[Phalaris1913]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Here we all are ... doing what we have become accustomed to doing ... waiting ... and waiting ... and waiting ... for something interesting to happen at the top tier of the sport we all love.

There has been an evolution in the wrong direction. We once demanded a body of accomplishment. As near as I can tell, we are now we are stuck in a rut where all we want are perfect superhorses. Any horse with sufficient starts (say, more than four or five) to appear that he or she is not the best horse ever to step onto a track is discarded in favor of a maiden winner "who might be anything." We never want to see a horse lose a race, so if that means giving crowning adulation for winning parades against hapless third-raters or simply assuming a horse is so superior that he needn't even actually run in races to prove it, so be it. So that's what we get: carefully choreographed, brief campaigns which are focused upon winning races, never mind the competition, culminating with the hope that these half-tested, underprepared animals can manage to stay sound and in form long enough to win on Breeders' Cup day.

We are, truly, moving toward a point when horses - aside from classic-bound 3YOs - with championship aspirations will rarely be spotted on the track before the late summer, and will have two- or three-race seasons (a prep and the Breeders' Cup). What else would they need to do? Why would anyone bother risking their horse's reputation and limbs running in races that don't matter? Reputations are built in a day and come undone just as quickly. Welcome to the 21st century.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Here we all are ... doing what we have become accustomed to doing ... waiting ... and waiting ... and waiting ... for something interesting to happen at the top tier of the sport we all love.

Weeks and weeks and weeks go by ... without any sighting of our best horses bursting out of a starting gate.

I did a bit of research a few weeks ago into the performances of past champion fillies ... and revealed that most of them were making 12 to 15 starts per campaign ... and some made several more.

Not that many years ago ... a horse who made fewer than 10 starts in a given year would not even be considered for a championship because of lack of activitiy.

Now ... we're thrilled when the best horses make four starts in a year ... and absolutely ecstatic when they're asked to make a heroic total of six.

Here we are in a banner year for quality race horses ... the likes of which haven't been seen for many a moon ... and what do we get ... weeks and weeks and weeks of waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting.

We're the fanatics ... and we're being bored to sleep. Just imagine how this plays with the general public.

All that really matters is how the bettors feel about it. As long as the bettors like it, that's all that matters. I'm a relatively big bettor. I'm not saying whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but if I like a horse
alot, I'll bet somwehere between $500 and $1000 on him.

Didn't you say that you're not even a bettor? It only matters what the bettors think. They're the ones who keep the sport going.

If I wanted to check on how a candidate was going to do in an election, I would poll people who were going to vote. I wouldn't poll people who are not going to vote. That wouldn't give me any information.

I'm not putting you down. My point is that if you are only a fan and not a bettor, then what is important to you may be entirely different from what is important to a bettor. As a bettor, I want to see horses have plenty of time between races. Then I have more confidence that the horse will fire. I'm usually not going to make a big bet on a horse that I feel is coming back too soon even if I think the horse is the best horse in the race, the reason being that I will not have confidence that the horse will run his best if he hasn't had enough rest.