I believe this one.

Indian Charlie · #1 10-14-2011, 12:13 PM

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...r-breeders-cup

RolloTomasi · #2 10-14-2011, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...r-breeders-cup

If he comes over for the BC, he should be in the Classic. I know I'm going against the opinion of the great Tom Amoss, but I think he'll handle dirt fine.

But back to reality, he's quickly become the UK answer to Zenyatta. Despite talk of the Derby, the Juddmonte International, etc., he still hasn't run further than a mile. I expect more of the same next year. 4 or 5 starts at a flat mile and done.

Indian Charlie · #3 10-14-2011, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If he comes over for the BC, he should be in the Classic. I know I'm going against the opinion of the great Tom Amoss, but I think he'll handle dirt fine.

But back to reality, he's quickly become the UK answer to Zenyatta. Despite talk of the Derby, the Juddmonte International, etc., he still hasn't run further than a mile. I expect more of the same next year. 4 or 5 starts at a flat mile and done.

I expect him to be mated to 100 mares next year.

I could easily be wrong on that though.

Cannon Shell · #4 10-14-2011, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If he comes over for the BC, he should be in the Classic. I know I'm going against the opinion of the great Tom Amoss, but I think he'll handle dirt fine.

But back to reality, he's quickly become the UK answer to Zenyatta. Despite talk of the Derby, the Juddmonte International, etc., he still hasn't run further than a mile. I expect more of the same next year. 4 or 5 starts at a flat mile and done.

What makes you think he will handle dirt or 1 1/4?

RolloTomasi · #5 10-14-2011, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What makes you think he will handle dirt or 1 1/4?

Tom Amoss thinks he can't.

Cannon Shell · #6 10-14-2011, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Tom Amoss thinks he can't.

You may not like him for whatever reason but there is zero evidence that Amoss is wrong. The horse is by a 100% turf sire out of a Danehill mare. Danehills runners were amazingly bad on the dirt considering how great of a sire he was. Not to mention Frankel's dam was a sprinter and that Cecil doesn't even try to stretch him out on turf let alone dirt.

RolloTomasi · #7 10-14-2011, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You may not like him for whatever reason but there is zero evidence that Amoss is wrong. The horse is by a 100% turf sire out of a Danehill mare. Danehills runners were amazingly bad on the dirt considering how great of a sire he was. Not to mention Frankel's dam was a sprinter and that Cecil doesn't even try to stretch him out on turf let alone dirt.

Tom Amoss's opinion was based on the horse's stride (I think in his 3yo debut), which seems shaky ground to stand on, as the surfaces in UK are not consistent, even, etc. and certainly not comparable to anything in the USA. Had he been watching the horse galloping on the main track in preparation for the Kentucky Derby or something, then his opinion would hold more water.

As for reasons why he could handle dirt:

As far as the pedigree, I don't think we've seen any Galileo's on dirt. Galileo himself ran on dirt in the '01 BC Classic, splitting the field while beaten about 7 lengths. Include, Aptitude, and Orientate finished behind him. He certainly didn't move up on it (which is not what I was suggesting with Frankel), but it's not like he eased the way horses like Steinlen, Dylan Thomas, etc. were. Danehill stood in Ireland and Australia. Why would he have a bunch of dirt runners? I presume that most of his offspring that tried were Euros in a one-off dirt attempt in the BC or similar.

Frankel has speed. His run-off type style in Europe may prevent his connections from stretching him out there, but the popular generalization in this country is that you need to have speed to be competitive. Might not be necessarily so for the Churchill surface, but his frontrunning speed would be an asset for the transition to dirt.

Frankel is better than everyone else (at least in the UK) if you buy into his reputation. Nothing about the BC Classic would be ideal for him (shipping, surface switch, different style of racing, longer distance, no time to adapt, etc.), but he could be the type of horse that overcomes those things because of the talent level. A similar argument as to why Zenyatta should have come out of her comfort zone more often in '09 and '10.

freddymo · #8 10-14-2011, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If he comes over for the BC, he should be in the Classic. I know I'm going against the opinion of the great Tom Amoss, but I think he'll handle dirt fine.

You couldn't muck Tom Amoss's stalls

my miss storm cat · #9 10-14-2011, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...r-breeders-cup

... meaning you believe he will actually come over?

I'm not being rude Charles just asking if that's what you mean.

I don't think he'll come for a second but what do I know?!

Indian Charlie · #10 10-14-2011, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

... meaning you believe he will actually come over?

I'm not being rude Charles just asking if that's what you mean.

I don't think he'll come for a second but what do I know?!

The likelihood of Frankel running in the BC this year are about the same as GP making it into the HOF.