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#1
08-14-2011, 07:53 AM
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8/14: Saratoga (Day 21; Adirondack; $76k C/O)
Threat of heavy weather this afternoon (Saratoga Weather Underground forecast) for carryover sequence of $76.5k precipitated Saturday by $134.00 Frank Martin nightcap shocker Ess Shape. The quirky maiden-laden slate was a bit of a roller coaster ride all afternoon actually, with plenty of opportunities to score with even the most random ideas.
Was able to cover the quad expense in the chalky early P4 ($86 back on $72 play), but got 10-1 in the triple utilizing the inverted key approach. As has been broached recently, the play takes logical players -- here Imaging (2-1), Corporate Jungle (5-2), Unbridled Ocean (8-1) -- in the top slots over prices -- Simbamangu (10-1), Santo Gato (20-1), Clear Note (28-1). The 3x2x3 wager was $18, and when Corporate Jungle, Imagining & Santo Gato came under the wire, the $1 punt returned $176. I didn't get a bet in, but a similar approach in the 8th had the potential to bring in $574 with Karakorum Legend (9-2), Unaccountable (7-2) & Bergerac (21-1)! As I've talked and written about, I'm finding this wager intriguing, and have now hit 4-5 for good money. The Spa turf races seem like the perfect place to play with this concept. Overall it was a good day with another couple of modest hits, and I hope everyone did well and enjoyed Saratoga, Arlington, Del Mar or whatever else you were watching! Del Mar has a $140k+ carryover themselves today, and the weather there is certainly going to be less volatile than here! SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Brilliant Future 2-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Dreamingly 9-2 WON ($10.40) Exotics Use: #7 Ostensibly 6-1 4th Super Add: #8 Storm Palm 6-1 6th 2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #8 Bargain Blitz 8-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Wait Til Dawn 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Isra 3-1 6th Super Add: #3 Remarkable Moon 10-1 7th 3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Lender's Way 3-1 4th Best Value: #5 Proud and Charming 5-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Wildcat's Smile 5-2 WON ($6.10) Exotics Use: #1e Broman entry 7-2 2nd/7th 4th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Grand Strategy 3-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Trulee Scrappin' 7-2 WON ($7.00) Exotics Use: #6 Won Fast Bullet 5-2 3rd Super Add: #1 Whateverittakes 10-1 4th 5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) $76k P6 C/O starts here.. Best Value: #3 Carson Bandit 6-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Strolldownbroadway 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Diceman 4-1 8th Super Add: #9 Rudy Rudy Rudy 3-1 WON ($7.90) <$75 P4 Play: 2: 1-5-8 3: 2-5-8 4: 1-3-5-6 5: 3-6-7-9 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Best Value: #6 Awesome Arceno 5-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Pistols at Dawn 8-5 4th Exotics Use: #4 Skinny Peter 6-1 6th 7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Delightful Magic 5-2 3rd Next Best: #1 Stopshoppingmaria 2-1 WON ($5.30) Exotics Use: #7 Book Review 6-1 2nd Super Add: #8 Terralba 12-1 6th 8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #4 Glory in Motion 9-2 5th Next Best: #7 Australis Princess 5-1 WON ($9.20) Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Tiger 4-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Nurse Dolce 8-1 4th 9th: 95th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6f (DD) Most Likely: #5 My Miss Aurelia 6-5 WON ($3.00) Next Best: #4 Millionreasonswhy 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #1 New Wave 10-1 4th 10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super) Most Likely: #3 City Scamper 10-1 3rd Best Value: #9 Drinksonthehouse 3-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Seattle Dynasty 8-1 6th Super Add: #2 Bella Silver 12-1 9th <$200 P6 Play: 5: 3-6 6: 4-5-6 7: 1-4-7-8 8: 4 9: 4-5 10: 3-9 2x3x4x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-4-7-8 8: 3-4-7 9: 1-4-5 10: 2-3-9-10 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 08-14-2011 at 08:27 PM. 
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#2
08-14-2011, 10:39 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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