Derby and Performance Figures

somerfrost · #1 04-17-2011, 06:35 PM

I find the use of Dr Roman's Performance Figures (PF's) superior to Beyer Speed Figures in handicapping the Derby. Since 1998 (first year PF's computed) 10 of 13 Derby winners had a PF within the top 5 horses in the race. The average winning PF in the Derby has been -57 (Monarchos tops with -75, Mine That Bird slowest with -42). This year to date (two turn races) among possible starters:
The Factor -57 (last -18)
Pants on Fire -57
Nehro -56 (last -52)
Shackleford -54
Dialed In -54
Archarcharch -53
Still a couple races to go but these appear the best, note The Factor's last race may eliminate him.

Port Conway Lane · #2 04-17-2011, 07:10 PM

So what is the record of the top five BSF's earned by 3yo's going two turns during the same time frame?

Either system covers 1/4 of the field to win the race. To have any value at all you could show me that the top five PF's or BSF's made up 3/4 of the superfecta or 2/3 of the trifecta a certain percentage of the time.

Honestly I think that by themselves without any other considerations they are both worthless, or at least no better at making money at the windows than they would be in any other race.

somerfrost · #3 04-17-2011, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

So what is the record of the top five BSF's earned by 3yo's going two turns during the same time frame?

Either system covers 1/4 of the field to win the race. To have any value at all you could show me that the top five PF's or BSF's made up 3/4 of the superfecta or 2/3 of the trifecta a certain percentage of the time.

Honestly I think that by themselves without any other considerations they are both worthless, or at least no better at making money at the windows than they would be in any other race.

The use is eliminating 3/4 of the field, making it easier to employ other handicapping factors to narrow 5 prospects down further....note that the average winning PF has been -57, the lowest -42...which horses left can run within those parameters at 10 furlongs? It certainly isn't the sole factor one would use, just one used to "thin the herd".

Port Conway Lane · #4 04-17-2011, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

The use is eliminating 3/4 of the field, making it easier to employ other handicapping factors to narrow 5 prospects down further....note that the average winning PF has been -57, the lowest -42...which horses left can run within those parameters at 10 furlongs? It certainly isn't the sole factor one would use, just one used to "thin the herd".

Well BSF's could "thin the herd" as well. You are eliminating 3/4 of the field for the win position. That could show me a flat win bet profit roughly 75% of the time provided the winner pays at least $11. A 9-1 shot doubles my money when I bet five horses to win and a 19-1 shot gets me back 3-1 on my money. I wouldn't be surprised if the drf speed figure plus track variant could achieve the same "thinning of the herd".

somerfrost · #5 04-17-2011, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Well BSF's could "thin the herd" as well. You are eliminating 3/4 of the field for the win position. That could show me a flat win bet profit roughly 75% of the time provided the winner pays at least $11. A 9-1 shot doubles my money when I bet five horses to win and a 19-1 shot gets me back 3-1 on my money. I wouldn't be surprised if the drf speed figure plus track variant could achieve the same "thinning of the herd".

Again, you are missing the point, using all 5 horses based on this one factor is not my suggestion. There are other factors to consider. When I look at the Derby, I consider this factor, Number of points in horse's DP, number of 3yo preps, races as 2yo, time between last prep and Derby, breeding on both sire and dam side and other factors....then again, sometimes I go with a gut feeling, for example I am waiting this year to hear whether Master of Hounds is coming over...he doesn't fit via PF's, # of 3yo races and other factors but he still interests me. PF's are a tool...one of many!

Port Conway Lane · #6 04-17-2011, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Again, you are missing the point, using all 5 horses based on this one factor is not my suggestion. There are other factors to consider. When I look at the Derby, I consider this factor, Number of points in horse's DP, number of 3yo preps, races as 2yo, time between last prep and Derby, breeding on both sire and dam side and other factors....then again, sometimes I go with a gut feeling, for example I am waiting this year to hear whether Master of Hounds is coming over...he doesn't fit via PF's, # of 3yo races and other factors but he still interests me. PF's are a tool...one of many!

Sorry but I'm not missing the point. Your first post stated you believe PF's were superior to BSF's in narrowing down the field in the derby.

My reply asked for the record of the top 5 BSF horses over the same time frame and you have not addressed that question. I completed my reply by pointing out, maybe not in the same way you just now acknowledged, that they are "simply a tool,one of many."

The Indomitable DrugS · #7 04-18-2011, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I find the use of Dr Roman's Performance Figures (PF's) superior to Beyer Speed Figures in handicapping the Derby. Since 1998 (first year PF's computed) 10 of 13 Derby winners had a PF within the top 5 horses in the race. The average winning PF in the Derby has been -57 (Monarchos tops with -75, Mine That Bird slowest with -42). This year to date (two turn races) among possible starters:
The Factor -57 (last -18)
Pants on Fire -57
Nehro -56 (last -52)
Shackleford -54
Dialed In -54
Archarcharch -53
Still a couple races to go but these appear the best, note The Factor's last race may eliminate him.

What in the hell is a 'Dr. Roman's Performance figure' ?