Jerry Brown on Maclean's Music

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I had the track changing, didn't give him as fast a figure, I'm going to be reviewing that race for a while, given how lightly raced the horses were. But has anybody stopped to think about the figures the rest of that field (especially first 5) are going to get if you believe the Beyer?

And, much more fun-- since Ragozin claims tracks don't change speed, and since he has California sprints about 2 points fast, I can't wait to see what they do with that race. I think if they stay true to what they have been doing he has to get as fast as Ghostzapper's best figure as an older horse

intellectual honesty (by Ragozin) requires either making a 3yo first timer into Ghostzapper, or giving out a lot of slow numbers.

Basically, when Brown says "I had the track changing" ... in this instance - it's pretty obvious he had it changing on multiple occasions.

People like Justin Dew (I'm going to be kind and pretend like he knows a little bit about this subject) love to call out Beyer for occasionally cutting a race loose - or splitting a variant.

However, Thoro-Graph makes a habit of doing this extremely often.

The Ragozin's, on the other hand, just about never do unless the weather changes or the track is sealed. The Beyer's are basically somewhere in the middle .. but closer to Ragozin than TG I would say.

Here's something I posted earlier:

If race #1 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 111

If race #2 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 112

If race #6 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 113

if race #9 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 106

if race #10 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 116

Basically - my opinion on what Thoro-Graph is clearly saying here ... The track was consistant for races #1 through #7 ... It suddenly got faster for races #8 (Maclean's Music's race) and #9 ... and suddenly slowed down sharply 30 minutes later for race #10. That is what they mean by "we had the track changing" I would expect the TG # to come back equal to about a 106 Beyer with a 1w or 2w trip.

I'm not being crtical of Brown - though I personally have never been a big believer in that concept of a racetrack changing speeds sharply - IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS - throughout the course of a day.

I'm not being critical of Ragozin either - but his unwilllingness to fool with variants or to cut a race loose because of pace ... leaves some horses with some pretty wild looking sheets.

And obviously - I disagree with Beyer's decisions sometimes as well.

[randallscott35]

Whether it was a 114 or a 106, it was an awesome debut. Sometimes we just miss the point. There is always going to be room for slight debate on figs, it's not as if TG has it as a 2 and Beyer has it as a 114.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

People like Justin Dew (I'm going to be kind and pretend like he knows a little bit about this subject) love to call out Beyer for occasionally cutting a race loose - or splitting a variant.


And obviously - I disagree with Beyer's decisions sometimes as well.

A) Hey! How did I get dragged into this? I though you quit DT.

B) My problem is summed up in your final sentence. There are too many "decisions" that go into assigning speed figures. They like to call it "a science with a little bit of art sprinkled in". That's BS. If there is any art to it, it's not a science.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

My problem is summed up in your final sentence. There are too many "decisions" that go into assigning speed figures.

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

He had a legit excuse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He had a legit excuse.

What - you bet on him?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What - you bet on him?

No.

He's not very good.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

By "clear up in hindsight", I assume you are talking about changing a Beyer weeks after it is earned after the horse in question, who was assigned a 97 for his 2nd place effort, races again and earns a 72, then another 72, and the original 97 is changed to a 91.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

By "clear up in hindsight", I assume you are talking about changing a Beyer weeks after it is earned after the horse in question, who was assigned a 97 for his 2nd place effort, races again and earns a 72, then another 72, and the original 97 is changed to a 91.

The scenerio you mentioned probably never happened before in 20 years since they've been published - at least not to that kind of extreme.

IMO - numbers are tweaked in hindsight far, far, far, less often than I think they should be.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The scenerio you mentioned probably never happened before in 20 years since they've been published - at least not to that kind of extreme.

IMO - numbers are tweaked in hindsight far, far, far, less often than I think they should be.

Are you suggesting that a horse's Beyer has never been adjusted downward by 6 points or more after a subsequent start by him or another horse?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

On Brown, and I like Jerry, his ground is immediately shaky with the 4th finisher, the first to hit the wire with a prior start, pretty much duplicating his debut figure. But, he's a smart guy, so we can't just dismiss him out of hand.

On the person you mentioned in this post.....has he admitted his foolishness or squirmed away like so many that say such idiocy?

What's funny is that Mig and I had that disagreement on the air after the Sam Davis, though without him being idioctically dismissive of figs, but after the Tampa Bay Derby he said on air that he was wrong. We're all wrong a lot of the time....I just wish more people were able to admit it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On Brown, and I like Jerry, his ground is immediately shaky with the 4th finisher, the first to hit the wire with a prior start, pretty much duplicating his debut figure. But, he's a smart guy, so we can't just dismiss him out of hand.

Yeah - he certainly knows a ton. I just think he can be pretty excessive and over-do it a little too much with his constant variant splits and cutting races loose.

For instance - he had Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile no faster than his Champagne win - both got the same number because he believed the Juvenile came back to fast to believe. That basically means Mountain Town (beaten 4.75 lengths by Uncle Mo in the Champagne - but racing 2 or 3 paths wider - both carrying 122lbs) would have utterly drowned a lot of ok horses in the Juvenile with a repeat.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On the person you mentioned in this post.....has he admitted his foolishness or squirmed away like so many that say such idiocy?

What's funny is that Mig and I had that disagreement on the air after the Sam Davis, though without him being idioctically dismissive of figs, but after the Tampa Bay Derby he said on air that he was wrong. We're all wrong a lot of the time....I just wish more people were able to admit it.

To the best of my knowledge - no. And I kind of doubt he ever would.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To the best of my knowledge - no. And I kind of doubt he ever would.

As somebody who likes to tell everybody how smart he is ( I guess this goes for both of us ) I think it's fair to say it helps one's credibility to occaisionally point out when we're wrong.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On Brown, and I like Jerry, his ground is immediately shaky with the 4th finisher, the first to hit the wire with a prior start, pretty much duplicating his debut figure. But, he's a smart guy, so we can't just dismiss him out of hand.

On the person you mentioned in this post.....has he admitted his foolishness or squirmed away like so many that say such idiocy?

What's funny is that Mig and I had that disagreement on the air after the Sam Davis, though without him being idioctically dismissive of figs, but after the Tampa Bay Derby he said on air that he was wrong. We're all wrong a lot of the time....I just wish more people were able to admit it.

sometimes its not "idiotically dismissive of figs"...its just i know who is going to be 6-5...more times then not its the chalk if the numbers look the highest. when the highest number gives me horses over 5-2....i'll love figs.......it works sometimes but c'mon. the faves still lose 2 out of 3 at most places.....with all the talk, you know this horse is going to be some ridiculously, stupid price next out...unless they really move him up...and even then it will probably be over bet. i'm just thinking anyone these days can do/get the number..trying to read the form is an art....you know that...but some of these others....i don't know about. i'm sure they are making bundles betting the "highest" number.....theres tons out there to be made on this horse.....lol

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

sometimes its not "idiotically dismissive of figs"...its just i know who is going to be 6-5...more times then not its the chalk if the numbers look the highest. when the highest number gives me horses over 5-2....i'll love figs.......it works sometimes but c'mon. the faves still lose 2 out of 3 at most places.....with all the talk, you know this horse is going to be some ridiculously, stupid price next out...unless they really move him up...and even then it will probably be over bet. i'm just thinking anyone these days can do/get the number..trying to read the form is an art....you know that...but some of these others....i don't know about. i'm sure they are making bundles betting the "highest" number.....theres tons out there to be made on this horse.....lol

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