Thursday 8/31 Saratoga Analysis

WOuld love to use the excuse that the races being off the turf yesterday was the reason for a cold day but it wasn't. A few horses won who I just wouldnt have ever played. Today there are back on the grass and the track is fast. Lets start with the scratches and changes:
http://www.nyra.com/chart/today.asp?track=S

Race 1- This is the most uninspiring race on the card. Best thoughts are that La Coruna, Polkadot, and Dixie Bridge appear like the most likely horses to win. Stag Dancer won her last when several contenders got brutal trips and since she was 0-18 entering that race, the likliehood that she will find heart again are slim. Use her underneath only.
Key the 3,4,6 and use the 2 underneath in tris and exactas.

Race 2- The likliehood that Dram and Proveyourlove may hook up early is the basis for my summation. Deputy Chairman is working awesome according to my clocker. Returns from a layoff for good connections. Oden's Tale has very good buried sheet numbers and has faced some killers. Switches to Leparoux today and may get part of the money at a big price.
Key the 2,6. Use the 6 in all three trifecta slots with the contenders.

race 3- Kaui Calls and Cherokee Sheikh both benefitted from perfect trips on the outside part of the track tracking speed duels on outside closing biased tracks. This Just In was fantastic when she added Lasix last time and is faster than both of these in both her debut and her last start. Single her in all pik's.
Single the 7

race 4- Ochre is fantastically grass bred and trained and has worked very well. Pletcher owns 2 year old grass route races. Block is trained Bill Mott who is much deadlier 2nd out that 1st out. Sneaky good debut when she ran 4th while buried inside and never really ridden hard the whole way.Mott is also huge with first lasix angle. Whole Emblem is trained by recently live barn of Weaver. Lots of strong works and good jock with lasix as well.
Key the 1,9 save with the 2.

race 5- Likelihood of speed duel between Traumatic and Genevil. Don't like the claimed away from Dutrow angle(Life Savior) so whats a guy to do?
Good race to take a shot with prices based on the above. Brushonme returns to NYRA circuit from the Finger lakes where she ran two very nice races. Very live at a price. Roxanne's Dancer and Snitch aren't impossible but I like Jerkens horse Prosperous Queen switching to a human being today afetr being ridden by drones, and she has decent figs.
Key the 9 and use the 3,5,10

race 6- Speed all over the place in this race. Mambo with G, Miracle Moment, Rasta Farian and Somethinabout betty. Meribel will be hugely overbet off 21 length less impressive than it looked closing effort.
I like 4 horses to use in exactas and pik's. Better Now has great grass breeding and exits race with tough trip when steered to dead rail in her last. her prior race was her fastest effort ever and her trainer's stats in this situation are very good. She also has grass breeding on both sides. Crystal Current exits a race where she battled hard and 3rd place finisher came back and won and 4th place finisher Kerns caper returned 2nd with a bad trip to My Typhoon in s stakes race. Southen Protocols last can be forgiven on softer turf and her prior was a very troubled trip win where she beat meribel. Amansara beat return multiple stakes winning Aunt Henny in her last start at Gulfstream. Shows a long worktab with several fast works in there for live barn Weaver.
Use the 1,3,7,8

Race 7- Precision Perfect and Fairway Drive(blinks back on, was speed crazy with them on two back) figure to hook up. Phoneulater was just fantastic last out being grabbed and hard held on the backside before winning by 7. Two bullets since then at Aqueduct and looks great. Raff and Tumble had a streak of nice route figs earlier this year. returned in an obvious prep race and was last at the top of the lane before finishing strongly and beating half the field in a fast sprint race. Stretches back out and looks strong as well.
Key the 7,8

race 8- I don't do steeplechases!!!

race 9- The race on August 3rd that several including favored Tomorrow's nano exit was dreadful. The winner was dreadful and the rest hung like cheap suits in the lane. I'm tossing everyone out of that slow fig bad race field.
Whats That Marnie raced with a bar shoe on last out and showed speed while taking serious tote action after shipping in from Ky. Her mom loved the grass and so did two of her siblings. Bar Shoe off today boys and girls!!! And they reach to live rider Gomez for her turf debut. Keuka Maid was trapped between horses in a cutthroat battle last out was very game. has good grass breeding and a greta grass work for a live barn. Rausehenbach was a troubled and good third off a LONG layoff in her only grass start this year. came back with two huge dirt efforts and switches to Jara.
Key the 2,8,10.

This is a great money makiing card. I suggest a trip to the ATM or under the mattress to everyone. Good luck.

[GPK]

Nice Michael....a $59 winner in the 2nd race was your key horse....well done.

$135 exacta too.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Good **** Oracle! Very well done!!!!!

[KY_Sasquash]

Great pick on Oden's Tale.

[GPK]

didn't look good for This Just In....pulled up and looked like a bad step. Hope she is ok.

[ninetoone]

Excellent job today through race 5...especially race 2, you really nailed it.

[Cpt.Bodgit]

Throws a 30-1 shot on top with confidence and nails it, that win right there would carry anyone through the rest of the day but he comes out with another tri and ex later on too.

Nice!

Just checked it out.
Much better job today.
You nailed a few good ones, especially the 2nd.

Credit where it is due.

[Gander]

didn't look good for This Just In....pulled up and looked like a bad step. Hope she is ok.

Unfortunately This Just in was immediately put down after the race (broke canon bone in right foreleg). Very sad, this one was very promising. I read that Jerkens was so upset he wanted no part of going to the winners cirlce after his horse won the 5th race an hour after the accident.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Gander

didn't look good for This Just In....pulled up and looked like a bad step. Hope she is ok.

Unfortunately This Just in was immediately put down after the race (broke canon bone in right foreleg). Very sad, this one was very promising. I read that Jerkens was so upset he wanted no part of going to the winners cirlce after his horse won the 5th race an hour after the accident.

Yeah Tim....I read the same thing last night.