12/2: Aqueduct ($50k C/O); Hollywood ($249k P6-$30k Hi-5 C/O's)

Kasept · #1 12-02-2009, 06:57 AM

Thanksgiving Holiday racing was especially fun with a number of important Derby Trail foreshadowing performances (Super Saver, Maximus Ruler, Buddy's Saint); career-enders (Ventura, Einstein, Flashing); a possible Championship decider (Kodiak Kowboy) and lucrative big prices (T.D. Vance, Rahystrada). Hope you did well and enjoyed the coverage!

Race week and December starts with carryovers galore including $50k (P6) at Aqueduct to coincide with the Inner Meet Opener, $249k (P6) and $30k (Super High Five 8th) at Hollywood...

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pleasant Sister 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Amelia the Cat 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Siren's Call 1-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Southern Princess 8-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Early Response 4-1 7th
Most Likely: #2 Woodacre 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Moose Man 9-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Papa Charlie 12-1 8th

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

NOTE: OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #2b Embrace Change 15-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Dreamnote 10-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Frontal Stride 12-1 3rd

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Not a Peep 7-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Submerge 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Citifesta 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Way to Karakorum 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $12.80
$2 Trifecta (3-8-1) Paid $32.75
$1 Superfecta (3-8-1-7) Paid $182.70

8th: The Tate, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Super tricky little overnight here with top ML pair looking alternately run-off dominant or speed duel vulnerable. Likely a make or break stop on the P6 line..

Most Likely: #7 Bold Union 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Powder Princess 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Boodles 7-2 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bon Marie 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Midwatch 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Maddy's Crowd 7-2
Super Add: #6 White Holiday 12-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-7-8
5: 2-4
6: 2
7: 3-8
8: 1-7
9: 1-5

3x2x1x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 P6 Conso (5 of 6) Paid $14.00 x 2 = $28.00

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 3-8
8: 1-2-5-6-7
9: 1-5-6-7-10

1x2x5x5 = $50 $1 P4 Paid $21.60

HOLLYWOOD

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 No More Travelin' 2-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Yankee Romance 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sweet Hanni 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Almy Road 15-1 4th

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $6.60
$1 Trifecta (1-8-5) Paid $17.40
$1 Superfecta (1-8-5-2) Paid $125.20

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Red Door Drive 5-2 WON
Next Best: #4 Halo's Law 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Candy for Paseana 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Hold Fast 3-1 4th

5th: Cal-bred OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lady Alex 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Blame the Wine 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Suziqcutie 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Perfect Magic 20-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 My Man Sumo 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Paddy's Magic 4-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Devil Cat M D 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Point Attended 8-1 2nd

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bestdressed 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Star Nicholas 3-1 4th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

$30k Super High 5 Carryover..

Best Value: #2 Anundeniablyhappy 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Bubbly Blonde 5-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Our Anastacia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Global Inspiration 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Champagne Snob 20-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 1-8
4: 1-4
5: 1-5
6: 2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-2
8: 2

2x2x2x5x2x1 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5
6: 2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-2-5/SCR
8: 2-7

2x5x3x2 = $60

Good luck!
Steve

docicu3 · #2 12-02-2009, 07:49 AM

Steve

The 6th initially scheduled for the grass will now be run on the main track at a mile. The NYRA website updated a few minutes ago and listed the 6th as the only off the turf race of the day.

Was there a weather change over night in New York?

Gander · #3 12-02-2009, 07:54 AM

I like Persian Ruler a lot in the 3rd and going to try and beat the favored Bold Union in the 8th, using the 1 and the 6 equally.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 12-02-2009, 08:33 AM

Steve, I love 1,6 in the 8th... Looks like it has to be a total meltdown, I will take the 2 best jocks on what appear to be the 2 who can rate/close.
Im going to play some heavy pick 3's and use 1,6 equally in the back end.

Gander · #5 12-02-2009, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Steve, I love 1,6 in the 8th... Looks like it has to be a total meltdown, I will take the 2 best jocks on what appear to be the 2 who can rate/close.
Im going to play some heavy pick 3's and use 1,6 equally in the back end.

Those are the two I like as well. I'll probably bet the Hills horse to win a bit because I feel she will be overlooked even with Ramon riding. But my biggest bet will be in the 3rd on the 2.

gales0678 · #6 12-02-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Those are the two I like as well. I'll probably bet the Hills horse to win a bit because I feel she will be overlooked even with Ramon riding. But my biggest bet will be in the 3rd on the 2.

mike luzzi and grusmark?

Kasept · #7 12-02-2009, 10:26 AM

AQU SCR/CHG's:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

4TH

5 Mia's Blaze Early

5TH

1 (poe) Lofty Banner Early

6TH

1 You de Best Early OFF TURF / NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA
1A Windy Jo Early
2 (poe) Discreet Fling Early
4 Victorious Song Early
7 Beautiful Pear Early
8 Foofs Melody Early
9 Strategic Missile Early
10 Holy Moly Early
12 Royal Rhetoric Early
13 Precious Penny Early
14 Glory in Motion Early

8TH

3 Seminole Lass Early NO SUPERFECTA
4 Smokin Pistol Early
8 Magic Roberta Early
9 Yes She's a Lady Early

9TH

4 Black Hawk Soaring Early
9 Fourth Chapter Early
12 Safe Landing Early
14 Tiger D. R. Early
15 Chernobyl's Hero Early
16 Indymine Early