Smart Money sucks

Bobby Fischer · #1 09-13-2009, 04:02 PM

Americain is 5/2
Chester is 7-1

these odds should be opposite of that , but there is not enough dumb money. Maybe it's worse today because of football season. The average player is not supposed to understand that Americain did so much running last out.(expletive)

Bobby Fischer · #2 09-13-2009, 04:35 PM

LMAO

Chop Chop did his job.

(I didn't think you had to declare if you were entered to be a rabbit...)

Without having studied this race multiple times, I wonder if Winchester beats GC on a slow pace. There is at least some probability.

unbettable anyway

Gander · #3 09-13-2009, 05:04 PM

Not that morning lines mean much, but Eric Donovan had Chester at 4/1 in the morning line. So I wasnt the least bit surprised he was 7/1. People obviously liked him in a race that looked like a good race to bet against the favorite. I fell for the Pletcher horse and he ruined all my vertical bets. Ugh.

Bobby Fischer · #4 09-13-2009, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

How'd Americain do?

Not too well he wasn't in the top 4.

The concept here is relative to the insight the public was "supposed" to have before the bowling green was run. Pretty simple: Americain was less atractive on form alone, but a study of the chart and the video revealed that Americain attempted an impossible pace in the Sword Dancer while the other two established "known" form with good trips. The public isn't supposed to be that sophisticated, and "should have" been betting Chester ahead of Americain. Maybe the Pletcher® trademark could be a valid excuse here.

i happened to pick GC, Winchester, and Americain as the 3 contenders with no real preference among them ... - and with the public making them choices 1-3 I wasn't very unique.

hockey2315 · #5 09-13-2009, 05:25 PM

Americain was a very bad wise guy horse who wouldn't have been a good bet at any reasonable price (I can prove this wasn't a redboard if necessary). He obviously had a huge trip excuse last time, but his Euro form was just plain weak. Take this from somebody who falls for every single Euro who ships to the states.

This highlights a problem that many of us make when trying to trip handicap a race - when we see trouble/a disadvantage in a horse's trip we automatically assume the horse is going to win even when there's no evidence of that.Just because a horse has trouble doesn't mean he was good enough to win with a cleaner/more advantageous set-up.

Bobby Fischer · #6 09-13-2009, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

This highlights a problem that many of us make when trying to trip handicap a race - when we see trouble/a disadvantage in a horse's trip we automatically assume the horse is going to win even when there's no evidence of that.Just because a horse has trouble doesn't mean he was good enough to win with a cleaner/more advantageous set-up.

good point.

Gander · #7 09-13-2009, 05:39 PM

I was trying to beat GC so it wasnt Americain, it would have been Gentleman Chester, Winchester or Colony and none of them could do it so in the end I was happy to only waste money using 1 of those horses instead of using all 4 of them, which I almost did. Americain was an insane win price at 7/2, but believe it or not his doubles were coming back great with anybody but that crazily bet Mott horse in the finale. Americain into Master was coming back $49 and I jumped all over it thinking it was pretty good value. Oh well, one of those chalk infested days that I just have to be thankful to show a modest profit on.