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  #1  
Old 08-17-2009, 09:48 PM
andrasi andrasi is offline
Les Bois
 
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Default Kent D.

Just a little heads up for all you Saratoga players, I am taking it upon myself to crush the remainder of the the meet for Kent D. from here on out I am betting 2$ to win and place on him. By no means is this a result of his rides 8/17, but just a culmination of me never catching a guy who runs 1,2 at a 38% clip and beats me like a drum. I've had it, no jock can carry my 2$ and be successful. j
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  #2  
Old 08-18-2009, 05:20 AM
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hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrasi
Just a little heads up for all you Saratoga players, I am taking it upon myself to crush the remainder of the the meet for Kent D. from here on out I am betting 2$ to win and place on him. By no means is this a result of his rides 8/17, but just a culmination of me never catching a guy who runs 1,2 at a 38% clip and beats me like a drum. I've had it, no jock can carry my 2$ and be successful. j
lescano
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  #3  
Old 08-18-2009, 07:09 AM
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dagolfer33 dagolfer33 is offline
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If either Desormeaux or Lezcano is on a runner with some odds on them, you had better watch out.
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  #4  
Old 08-18-2009, 07:17 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Matto,

Lezcano? Versus Desormeaux right now? It's not remotely close.

Lezcano: $80.57 in win mutuel in 95 starts: .84
Desormeaux: $166.50 in win mutuel in 78 starts: 2.13

And while I don't have the chance to look at it, I'd guess exacta keys of Kent in those 78 starts would produce some interesting numbers.

Lezcano is simply not getting very many good mounts at the meet given the colony and the first calls ahead of him on the pecking order. He's doing fine and his agent is pleased, but he's literally on the 7th-10th 'best' horse in most races. And he's not 'moving' horses up based on the above ROI. With an average win price of $11.50 (9-2), he's really only winning on horses that were good enough to win.

Desormeaux' average price of $11.10 is amazing considering how many top horses he gets. But many of his Mott winners have been underbet.
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  #5  
Old 08-18-2009, 07:46 AM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Don't you think the sample size is pretty small? You're talking 18 days.

Through yesterday, ...

Desormeaux is just 8-for-81 at finishing 3rd.

Lezcano is 21-for-101 at finishing 3rd.

Things will likely even out a little more over time.
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  #6  
Old 08-18-2009, 08:50 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Don't you think the sample size is pretty small? You're talking 18 days.

Through yesterday, ...

Desormeaux is just 8-for-81 at finishing 3rd.

Lezcano is 21-for-101 at finishing 3rd.

Things will likely even out a little more over time.
However you view the sample size, it's 50% of the universe you're going to end up with... It is what we have to work with.

Is finishing third a primary objective? If you're saying some of the thirds Lezcano had in the first half could become exacta finishes in the 2nd half, I wouldn't disagree.
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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  #7  
Old 08-18-2009, 09:05 AM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
However you view the sample size, it's 50% of the universe you're going to end up with...
It's less than a hundred races ... which, for a jockey, is like a squirt of piss in a very large bucket.
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  #8  
Old 08-18-2009, 10:20 AM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
However you view the sample size, it's 50% of the universe you're going to end up with... It is what we have to work with.

Is finishing third a primary objective? If you're saying some of the thirds Lezcano had in the first half could become exacta finishes in the 2nd half, I wouldn't disagree.
Depends on the situation. Don't these numbers tend to support the belief that, if Desormeaux can't win, he doesn't care where he finishes.
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  #9  
Old 08-18-2009, 07:54 AM
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the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept

Lezcano is simply not getting very many good mounts at the meet given the colony and the first calls ahead of him on the pecking order. He's doing fine and his agent is pleased, but he's literally on the 7th-10th 'best' horse in most races. And he's not 'moving' horses up based on the above ROI. With an average win price of $11.50 (9-2), he's really only winning on horses that were good enough to win.

Have yet to climb on the Lezcano bandwagon. I fail to see the fascination with him as a jock. Look at yesterday's 6th, with the sprinter stretching out 2nd time turf. She wins IN SPITE of Lezcano and his wide, no cover, rushed trip.
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  #10  
Old 08-18-2009, 09:31 AM
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hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Matto,

Lezcano? Versus Desormeaux right now? It's not remotely close.

Lezcano: $80.57 in win mutuel in 95 starts: .84
Desormeaux: $166.50 in win mutuel in 78 starts: 2.13

And while I don't have the chance to look at it, I'd guess exacta keys of Kent in those 78 starts would produce some interesting numbers.

Lezcano is simply not getting very many good mounts at the meet given the colony and the first calls ahead of him on the pecking order. He's doing fine and his agent is pleased, but he's literally on the 7th-10th 'best' horse in most races. And he's not 'moving' horses up based on the above ROI. With an average win price of $11.50 (9-2), he's really only winning on horses that were good enough to win.

Desormeaux' average price of $11.10 is amazing considering how many top horses he gets. But many of his Mott winners have been underbet.
he may be getting bad mounts or less but i feel hes making the most of what
he has..put him on the mott horses and hes got a better roi than kent..imo
just like corny used too
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