8/13: Saratoga (Day 14; $52k C/O)

Kasept · #1 08-13-2009, 04:20 AM

Good day to start Week 3 had potential to be outstanding, and though I fell short of pointing things out clearly, it appears it was for many Derby Trail readers and ATR listeners as at least three readers/listeners hitting the $4,600 quad! For me, the prime bet of the day was the state bred Cab Calloway where Uncle T Seven looked like a grapefruit coming over the plate. The 5-2 John Morrison trainee combined with overlaid 'Best Value' Livin Large (11-1) and obvious include Scientist for a fat $230 tri ($2). Hope you did well (and know quite a few did)! Carryover of $52,000+ Thursday on a very slippery sequence.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Ben Nevis, 4+, 16.5f-Hurdles (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Dalucci 3-1
Next Best: #8 Dynaski 7-2
Best Value: #3 Arcadius 6-1
Super Add: #9 Swagger Stick 5-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR #2b Proud Zoe who won Monday..

Best Value: #7 Speckledbird 6-1
Most Likely: #4 Cableknit 2-1
Next Best: #5 Capital Adequacy 8-1
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Limeheart 10-1

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Vindication 7-2
Next Best: #2 Just Ben 2-1
Exotics Use: #1e Clay entry 5-2

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Triple Glory 10-1
Most Likely: #6 Telemachus 3-1
Next Best: #3 All West 5-2
Super Add: #4 Napkins 5-1

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Counterspy 5-2
Next Best: #5 Master 3-1
Best Value: #1 Dontquityourdayjob 8-1
Super Add: #6 Interrogatory 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-7
3: 1-2-5
4: 3-4-6-8
5: 1-4-5

2x3x4x3 = $72

6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Quick to Charm 7-2
Best Value: #5 Bullara 10-1
Next Best: #3 Angliana 3-1
Super Add: #10 Vettriano 5-1

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Hatheer 3-1
Best Value: #6 More Amour 8-1
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 4-1

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Choragus 5-2
Next Best: #6 Turn Away 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tar Heel Mom 7-2

9th: NY Stallion-Statue of Liberty, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Wild Awake 5-2
Next Best: #7 Mother Russia 3-1
Best Value: #2 Es Mia 10-1
Super Add: #8 Sezzana 4-1

10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Collar 6-1
Most Likely: #9 Catty Madeline 5-1
Next Best: #2 Hangingonaprayer 3-1
Super Add: #7 My Anna Rose 8-1

$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-5
6: 2-3-5-10
7: 8
8: 2-6
9: 4-7
10: 8-9

3x4x1x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 1-2-5-6
9: 2-4-7
10: 2-8-9

2x4x3x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Holland Hacker · #2 08-13-2009, 05:52 AM

Steve,

Thanks once again for all of your hard work. I have a silly question for you regarding your picks. Why is it that you chage the order of your picks? By that I mean in some races you list you ML - BV - NB - EU / SA and in others you list your BV - ML - NB - EU / SA.

Also is there a difference between your classification of Exotics Use and Super Add?

Hoefully I'll see you later today. Heading up to Saratoga for the weekend!

Bill

Kasept · #3 08-13-2009, 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

Steve,

Thanks once again for all of your hard work. I have a silly question for you regarding your picks. Why is it that you chage the order of your picks? By that I mean in some races you list you ML - BV - NB - EU / SA and in others you list your BV - ML - NB - EU / SA.

Also is there a difference between your classification of Exotics Use and Super Add?

Hoefully I'll see you later today. Heading up to Saratoga for the weekend!

Bill

The order of selection amounts to the 1-2-3-4 preference... A 12-1 'Best Value' isn't the most likely winner in the truest sense. I'm suggesting in those cases that at the likely tote, a Best Value type is a better bet than the lower priced favorite(s).

Conversely, there are times were the top 2 ML favorites or first and third choices, etc., are simply better horses than the best value player available... Hence, a Most Likely, Next Best, Best Value order...

The moniker of Exotics or Super (4th horse) is strictly determined by whether or not a Super is available in the race. A 10 horse field with entries where a Super isn't available frequently demands a Most Likely and/or Best Value be played with at least 2-3 others for exactas/tris/supers.

See you over there!

andrasi · #4 08-13-2009, 07:50 AM

Thanks for the#2 in nightcap Steve, bet a few on the nose. Thru arms up in disgust after my mess up in pic4 sequence. Salvaged day because of it. jer

lemoncrush · #5 08-13-2009, 08:27 AM

Making the late PK 4 my only mid-week play this week. Been looking over the PPs the past few days. I may end up using Ticketmaker on DRF to break this ticket down to smaller tickets, as it's a pretty competitive 4 races.

Pre-scratches Selections

Race 7 Shadwell firster Hatheer looks ready to face maiden group, most which look to want much more ground than 5-1/2 F. Main rival could be More than Ready filly Ready to Party, as trainer excells at turf sprints.
8 - Hatheer (3-1)
9 - Crimson Glory (7-2) SCR
2 - Ready to Party (8-1)
3 - Smart Seattle (10-1)

Race 8 Frankel filly has distinct class edge on these, but 6F may be too short against this group. Alan Garcia has been aboard all 3 career wins for Tar Heel Mom, and returns to ride her today
6 - Turn Away (2-1)
2 - Choragus (5-2)
5 - Tar Heel Mom (7-2)

Race 9 Tagg filly Wild Awake should be able to handle this group after 4 straight 2nd place finishes.
4 - Wild Awake (5-2)
8 - Sezzana (4-1)
7 - Mother Russia (3-1)
2 - E's Mia (10-1)

Race 10 Lots of question marks, lots of pace, and a very vulernable M/L favorite in Hangingonaprayer. Lots to like on Catty Madeline and J. Leparoux. World Gone Wrong could offer great value with a hot rider jumping on.
9 - Catty Madeline (5-1) Best bet
4 - World Gone Wrong (6-1)
2 - Hanging on a Prayer (3-1)
7 - My Anna Rose (8-1)
12 - Linsalata (7-2)

Pick 4 (post scratches)
7 - 2,8
8 - 5,6
9 - 4,7,8
10 - 2,4,6,9

$48 for $1

randallscott35 · #6 08-13-2009, 09:53 AM

I remember maybe in 99 or 2000 or something, one of the handicapping shows up there said all they do in the jump races in box the 3 longest shots in the exacta and they hit it a bunch of times. Was funny but I still think about that when watching these races.

lemoncrush · #7 08-13-2009, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Making the late PK 4 my only mid-week play this week. Been looking over the PPs the past few days. I may end up using Ticketmaker on DRF to break this ticket down to smaller tickets, as it's a pretty competitive 4 races.

Pre-scratches Selections

Race 7 Shadwell firster Hatheer looks ready to face maiden group, most which look to want much more ground than 5-1/2 F. Main rival could be More than Ready filly Ready to Party, as trainer excells at turf sprints.
8 - Hatheer (3-1)
9 - Crimson Glory (7-2) SCR
2 - Ready to Party (8-1)
3 - Smart Seattle (10-1)

Race 8 Frankel filly has distinct class edge on these, but 6F may be too short against this group. Alan Garcia has been aboard all 3 career wins for Tar Heel Mom, and returns to ride her today
6 - Turn Away (2-1)
2 - Choragus (5-2)
5 - Tar Heel Mom (7-2)

Race 9 Tagg filly Wild Awake should be able to handle this group after 4 straight 2nd place finishes.
4 - Wild Awake (5-2)
8 - Sezzana (4-1)
7 - Mother Russia (3-1)
2 - E's Mia (10-1)

Race 10 Lots of question marks, lots of pace, and a very vulernable M/L favorite in Hangingonaprayer. Lots to like on Catty Madeline and J. Leparoux. World Gone Wrong could offer great value with a hot rider jumping on.
9 - Catty Madeline (5-1) Best bet
4 - World Gone Wrong (6-1)
2 - Hanging on a Prayer (3-1)
7 - My Anna Rose (8-1)
12 - Linsalata (7-2)

Pick 4 (post scratches)
7 - 2,8
8 - 5,6
9 - 4,7,8
10 - 2,4,6,9

$48 for $1

Once the Wesly Ward Ghostzapper filly scratched from the 7th, I obviously should have moved my 4th selection (Smart Seattle) onto the ticket. Being too gun shy with not playing enough Saragota so far, cost me the $800+ pick 4 today.