The Art of Stealing Bases

[King Glorious]

I was just wondering why the stolen base has become something of a lost art in baseball? I know it can't be because players aren't as fast. Is it because of managers being too conservative? Players just not willing to take as many risks or not knowing how to run? I remeber back in the late 70's and early 80's when we had guys like Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman going over 100 a few times and also guys like Ron LeFlore, Willie Wilson, Tim Raines, and Eric Davis who all went 80+. How about 1980 when Henderson stole 100 to lead the league, beating out LeFlore with 97 and Omar Moreno with 96?

Also, why aren't there more guys that can run and hit homers? I don't mean those 30/30 or even the 40/40 guys. To me, 30 or 40 steals isn't impressive. Since 1900, I looked at all the guys that have stolen at least 80 in a season. Only three of those guys hit more than 10 homers in the same season:

Henderson 87 steals, 28 homers
Eric Davis 80 steals, 27 homers
Henderson 80 steals, 24 homers
Raines 90 steals, 11 homers
Henderson 130 steals, 10 homers

Looking at it, Eric Davis was a pretty unique player. Not many had the speed to steal 80, the power to hit 37 homers, the ability to hit for a decent average, and the ability to be a Gold Glove outfielder.

[alysheba4]

saw lou brock as a kid at dodger stadium prob. 1971 or 72? it was great.

[MaTH716]

Most stolen bases are stolen off the pitcher not the catchers. In the 70's/80's pitchers had such high leg kicks that it made it much easier for the runners. Now with shorter deliveries and things like the slide step it makes things much harder on the runners.

[GBBob]

Do they emphasze stolen bases that much in the DR, Venezualua, etc? The swing from African American players to Central America the past 20 years has been very big and I wonder if that has anything to do with it. When Alexi Ramirez, who is very fast, came to the Sox from Cuba he had to be "taught" how to steal bases. He's still not there yet.

With ballparks getting smaller, the balls being juiced, the players being juiced, it just seems that small ball has taken a back seat. When CF is 400 yards away, not 460, it's harder to justify manufacturing runs.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Most stolen bases are stolen off the pitcher not the catchers. In the 70's/80's pitchers had such high leg kicks that it made it much easier for the runners. Now with shorter deliveries and things like the slide step it makes things much harder on the runners.

Didn't 2007 have the highest stolen base success rate since it has been a recorded statistic?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Also, why aren't there more guys that can run and hit homers?

The best base stealers are going to be the shorter, quicker guys who are less likely to have power. It's the same reason that 20 meters into a 100 meter dash a guy like Maurice Greene would be ahead of Usain Bolt.

Then you have the power hitters generally in the middle of the lineup and guys in the middle of the lineup don't run as much.

[Gaelic Storm]

Carl Crawford is on pace for 65 steals and 15 homers and Ian Kinsler has a shot at 30/30. That's not to bad.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gaelic Storm

Carl Crawford is on pace for 65 steals and 15 homers and Ian Kinsler has a shot at 30/30. That's not to bad.

It's not bad at all. Neither one. But when you have 87 steals and 28 homers or 80/27, 65/15 isn't much. Then again, one of those that did that before is a hall of famer and I thought the other one (Davis) had the potential to be before the injuries. I don't get impressed with 30 or 40 steals though. That's one every four or five games. Blah.

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I was just wondering why the stolen base has become something of a lost art in baseball? I know it can't be because players aren't as fast. Is it because of managers being too conservative? Players just not willing to take as many risks or not knowing how to run? I remeber back in the late 70's and early 80's when we had guys like Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman going over 100 a few times and also guys like Ron LeFlore, Willie Wilson, Tim Raines, and Eric Davis who all went 80+. How about 1980 when Henderson stole 100 to lead the league, beating out LeFlore with 97 and Omar Moreno with 96?

Also, why aren't there more guys that can run and hit homers? I don't mean those 30/30 or even the 40/40 guys. To me, 30 or 40 steals isn't impressive. Since 1900, I looked at all the guys that have stolen at least 80 in a season. Only three of those guys hit more than 10 homers in the same season:

Henderson 87 steals, 28 homers
Eric Davis 80 steals, 27 homers
Henderson 80 steals, 24 homers
Raines 90 steals, 11 homers
Henderson 130 steals, 10 homers

Looking at it, Eric Davis was a pretty unique player. Not many had the speed to steal 80, the power to hit 37 homers, the ability to hit for a decent average, and the ability to be a Gold Glove outfielder.

An interesting read......Giving Billy Martin major credit for his SB accomplishments.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseb...rson-hof_N.htm

"Henderson also says he thinks the record will never be broken. Not in today's game.

Too many stopwatches. Too much caution. Too little trust in the baserunner.

"They came up with that stopwatch and you drill it in a guy that (when the) clock is such and such time, you can run," says Henderson, who from 1979 to 2003 played on nine major league teams. "Hey, wait a minute, you're telling me I can't beat the guy? So they drill that into kids' heads … These kids, maybe, don't want to get that dirty. As a football player, I loved getting hit and loved getting in the dirt, so it didn't bother me. Now the kids, they're coming up, 'Oh, I'm hurt. I'm this.' Come on, man."

[Cannon Shell]

Advanced statistical analysis has shown that it isnt worth losing an out for a base. You also dont see much sacrificing outside of the pitcher anymore either. Especially in the roids era where so many players had plus power.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Anybody see Pujols try to steal a double out of a single tonite? That's like the last guy in the league to try to do that on, and he was out by a whole lot.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Advanced statistical analysis has shown that it isnt worth losing an out for a base. You also dont see much sacrificing outside of the pitcher anymore either. Especially in the roids era where so many players had plus power.

The thing is it has been shown that you need at least a 67-70% success rate to break even on the number of runs you will score. Now this is understandable for 95%+ of the guys out there but there are guys like Ellsbury (85.1% career), Ichiro (81.6%), Beltran (88.3%), Crawford (82.8%), Kinsler (89.1%), and Bartlett (83.2%) that could clearly run far more and help their team. Now I can understand why Beltran might not run more now that he's in NY but he clearly should have run more in KC and these other guys don't have the excuses of being a high paid heart of the lineup player. They should all be running more.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The thing is it has been shown that you need at least a 67-70% success rate to break even on the number of runs you will score. Now this is understandable for 95%+ of the guys out there but there are guys like Ellsbury (85.1% career), Ichiro (81.6%), Beltran (88.3%), Crawford (82.8%), Kinsler (89.1%), and Bartlett (83.2%) that could clearly run far more and help their team. Now I can understand why Beltran might not run more now that he's in NY but he clearly should have run more in KC and these other guys don't have the excuses of being a high paid heart of the lineup player. They should all be running more.

Ellsbury (40 steals in 80 games this year) and Bartlett have hardly had a career, Ichiro is 35 year old, Crawford is regularly over 50 steals, and Kinsler plays in Texas with solid power behind him and has a hard time staying healthy. Not to mention that they would all find their % diminish as they are now stealing at optimium opportunities.

[King Glorious]

Since 1900, there have been 23 recorded seasons of 80 steals or more. The four between 1910-12 don't have the number of times caught stealing but the other 19 do. The success rates:

Henderson-130 steals/42 thrown out-75.6%
Brock-118/33-78.1
Coleman-110/25-81.5
Coleman-109/22-83.2
Henderson-108/19-85.0
Coleman-107/14-88.4
Wills-104/13-88.9
Henderson-100/26-79.4
LeFlore-97/19-83.6
Cobb-96/38-71.6
Moreno-96/33-74.4
Wills-94/31-75.2
Henderson-93/13-87.7
Raines-90/14-86.5
Henderson-87/18-82.9
Wilson-83/12-87.4
Coleman-81/27-75.0
Davis-80/11-87.9
Henderson-80/10-88.9