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  #1  
Old 07-18-2009, 07:28 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Default Thoro-Graph ROTW-VA Derby (+ Toga Seminars)

http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...nl0718r_09.pdf

Those interested in getting a grip on the Thoro-Graph approach/methodology should read Alan Benewitz' analysis of the Virginia Derby field. Alan wrote more extensively than usual about the development patterns of each entrant in this, and if you compare his written blurbs with the 'sheet' patterns, it gives you an excellent picture of how TG speed figures work and the wagering concept behind race views.

Jerry Brown (Weeks 2 & 6), Alan (Weeks 1, 4 & 5) and Julian Weinberg (Week 3) and I present the Saratoga Thoro-Graph Seminars every weekend at Carolina Barbecue 11:00am-12:00noon...
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  #2  
Old 07-18-2009, 07:37 AM
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Thanks for posting this Steve!
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  #3  
Old 07-18-2009, 07:50 AM
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Court Vision won this race last year.
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  #4  
Old 07-18-2009, 07:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Thanks for posting this Steve!
My pleasure! It's a very helpful analysis for anyone really interested in TG, and I completely saw the race the way Alan did.

There's a number of horses in this race whose career development is very distinct on the sheets. Note how Nicanor's races are alternating with the reaction last notably worse than the reaction two back. As Alan explains, he's still feeling the effects of the big, fast effort 4 back, and was headed for problems.

Hold Me Back has the two efforts (the paired 2's on Poly) that are notably faster than anything anyone else has run. A return to that level should he take to the grass OK, and there's no reason to think he won't, makes him the likely winner.

As Benewitz notes, both the Pletcher runners are in positon to run well at square prices, and the obvious other contenders seem OK but pretty underlaid.

Anyway, no need for me to reiterate what was written... Point is that it's a great write up just to help people understand the slightly different, and frequently (highly) profitable method TG users employ to wager.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #5  
Old 07-18-2009, 08:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
My pleasure! It's a very helpful analysis for anyone really interested in TG, and I completely saw the race the way Alan did.

There's a number of horses in this race whose career development is very distinct on the sheets. Note how Nicanor's races are alternating with the reaction last notably worse than the reaction two back. As Alan explains, he's still feeling the effects of the big, fast effort 4 back, and was headed for problems.

Hold Me Back has the two efforts (the paired 2's on Poly) that are notably faster than anything anyone else has run. A return to that level should he take to the grass OK, and there's no reason to think he won't, makes him the likely winner.

As Benewitz notes, both the Pletcher runners are in positon to run well at square prices, and the obvious other contenders seem OK but pretty underlaid.

Anyway, no need for me to reiterate what was written... Point is that it's a great write up just to help people understand the slightly different, and frequently (highly) profitable method TG users employ to wager.
I liked Hold Me Back, but the only thing that was giving me pause was he seems to be a horse that will take a lot of money for making his first start on Turf and I read that they put him here because the "race came at the right time" and winning a major race on dirt is their real goal. Now granted, this is coming from an owner whose interest is in making a stallion, but do you think that could mean they think he fits more on dirt?
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  #6  
Old 07-18-2009, 09:04 AM
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I wouldn't read too much into Walden's comments. Mott always expected to run him on grass along the way. WinStar is trying to author his schedule with the hope that they can manufacture a three surface stallion. Mott is being practical and trying to get an effort in a lucrative and logical spot.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #7  
Old 07-18-2009, 09:32 AM
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does the speaker work?
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  #8  
Old 07-18-2009, 11:35 AM
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Can you put it on Sirius?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...nl0718r_09.pdf

Those interested in getting a grip on the Thoro-Graph approach/methodology should read Alan Benewitz' analysis of the Virginia Derby field. Alan wrote more extensively than usual about the development patterns of each entrant in this, and if you compare his written blurbs with the 'sheet' patterns, it gives you an excellent picture of how TG speed figures work and the wagering concept behind race views.

Jerry Brown (Weeks 2 & 6), Alan (Weeks 1, 4 & 5) and Julian Weinberg (Week 3) and I present the Saratoga Thoro-Graph Seminars every weekend at Carolina Barbecue 11:00am-12:00noon...
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  #9  
Old 07-18-2009, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Can you put it on Sirius?
Have discussed streaming it online at our websites. We'll see.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #10  
Old 07-18-2009, 12:19 PM
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geeker2 geeker2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Have discussed streaming it online at our websites. We'll see.

Man that would work great!
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  #11  
Old 07-18-2009, 04:23 PM
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Steve,

You just don't know the thrill being at home in SC or anywhere and being able to tap into the pulse of what goes on at Saratoga, for all of use that are not fortunate to be there.

Tried to not miss Siros seminars each day and now that that's gone, would really fill a void if you could do it early.

Would think you'd get some good advertisers.

Give it a think.

Spyder
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeker2
Man that would work great!
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  #12  
Old 07-18-2009, 04:44 PM
kenny p kenny p is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Steve,

You just don't know the thrill being at home in SC or anywhere and being able to tap into the pulse of what goes on at Saratoga, for all of use that are not fortunate to be there.

Tried to not miss Siros seminars each day and now that that's gone, would really fill a void if you could do it early.

Would think you'd get some good advertisers.

Give it a think.

Spyder
I must have missed something. No more seminars at Siros? KP
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  #13  
Old 07-18-2009, 09:33 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Steve,

You just don't know the thrill being at home in SC or anywhere and being able to tap into the pulse of what goes on at Saratoga, for all of use that are not fortunate to be there.

Tried to not miss Siros seminars each day and now that that's gone, would really fill a void if you could do it early.

Would think you'd get some good advertisers.

Give it a think.

Spyder
The DRF/Talking Horses should still be available streaming. Perhaps at Capital OTB's website if not elsewhere.

And I do broadcast the show live from Saratoga weekdays, so I think I have a feel for providing a pulse of the meet for those not there...

If we do the TG seminars streaming weekends, the only advertiser needed would be Thoro-Graph itself.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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