Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1

Rupert Pupkin · #1 08-09-2006, 01:58 PM

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

Gander · #2 08-09-2006, 02:01 PM

His thinking is that the public will dismiss a horse like the Tin Man, who hasnt beaten top fields like this too often. He is old and extremely lovable. If I dont have a bet on someone else I will be rooting for him.

I happen to agree with the oddsmaker and think these odds will hold up, maybe 8/1 on the Tin Man but certainly not much lower.

Cacique and English Channel are two very awesome horses right now who never fail to fire and keep the very best competition.

Rupert Pupkin · #3 08-09-2006, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

His thinking is that the public will dismiss a horse like the Tin Man, who hasnt beaten top fields like this too often. He is old and extremely lovable. If I dont have a bet on someone else I will be rooting for him.

I happen to agree with the oddsmaker and think these odds will hold up, maybe 8/1 on the Tin Man but certainly not much lower.

Cacique and English Channel are two very awesome horses right now who never fail to fire and keep the very best competition.

The Tin Man has won every race that he's run in since he came back off the layoff with the exception of the $2 million Dubai race where he ran 2nd to David Junior. He's been running in nothing but Grade I and Grade II races and he's won all of them except for his 2nd place finish to David Junior in the Grade I $2 million Dubai race.
David Junior would be the favorite in this race.

Scav · #4 08-09-2006, 02:24 PM

he is smoking something....he is probably trying to sway the public as arlington look at the ML as gospel..

You think Tinny is live?

Gander · #5 08-09-2006, 02:27 PM

Didnt David Junior beat him by many lengths and couldnt it have been even more?

Rupert Pupkin · #6 08-09-2006, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Didnt David Junior beat him by many lengths and couldnt it have been even more?

I think he beat him by about 2-3 lengths but David Junior is one of top few best turf horses in the world.

Rupert Pupkin · #7 08-09-2006, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

he is smoking something....he is probably trying to sway the public as arlington look at the ML as gospel..

You think Tinny is live?

He's been unbeatable since he's come back with the exception of his 2nd place to finish to David Junior. If he runs the way he's been running, he's got to be the horse to beat.

miraja2 · #8 08-09-2006, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

I bet he will be bet way down, but English Channel will still be the favorite. I expect that The Tin Man will be the second choice at something like 4-1, and that just means I'll get the winner (Cacique) at a nice third choice price of something like 9-2.

Dunbar · #9 08-09-2006, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I bet he will be bet way down, but English Channel will still be the favorite. I expect that The Tin Man will be the second choice at something like 4-1, and that just means I'll get the winner (Cacique) at a nice third choice price of something like 9-2.

I suspect that if you put together a fair odds line for this race, no horse would be lower than 5-1. It's hard to separate Cacique, English Channel, and the Tin Man. Ace is not far behind them, and there are several other horses that have a shot.

It's easy to think 4-1 or 9-2 looks good until you try to put reasonable numbers on the other horses' chances. This is especially true in an 11-horse field.

--Dunbar

Danzig · #10 08-09-2006, 06:29 PM

i think most everyone would love to see the tin man win, for sentimental reasons for many of us. it sure wouldn't break my heart if he won, altho i do like english channel.

ceejay · #11 08-09-2006, 06:40 PM

Well the San Marcos does look like it turned out as a "Key" race: 3 returning stakes winners, and 2 returning stakes places. I do think he's a level or two below the top contenders, though.

Rupert Pupkin · #12 08-09-2006, 06:47 PM

With regard to the Dubai race where The Tin Man ran 2nd, I meant to say it was a $5 million race, not a $2 million race.

LARHAGE · #13 08-10-2006, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i think most everyone would love to see the tin man win, for sentimental reasons for many of us. it sure wouldn't break my heart if he won, altho i do like english channel.

I'm with ya, I would LOVE to see The Tin Man win, if not he than Cacique.

ArlJim78 · #14 08-09-2006, 07:35 PM

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

#15 08-09-2006, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

ArlJim78 · #16 08-09-2006, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

#17 08-09-2006, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

ArlJim78 · #18 08-09-2006, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

He'll be a factor, yes. He'll be one of the leading horses spread across the track as they straighten for home. By the time the wire arrives he'll be no better than fourth.

Scav · #19 08-09-2006, 09:53 PM

Note: I don't know if this is an angle or not but Gaff went to Dubai also and his first race back in the states was a decent race, only to throw a complete clunker next out...

I know Tin ran well last time, could this be his clunker?

I am thinking I am gonna try for some Euro lovin and throw in English Channel, maybe just English Channel and Ace, but that will cause some serious anxiety....

Scav · #20 08-09-2006, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

You gotta give him a little chance, M. Smith was on him last time at Arlington...that is when he was an immediate toss.....