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#1
05-06-2009, 06:15 AM
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5/6: Churchill ($781k C/O)
Like remnants of a hurricane or aftershocks post-earthquake, the $781,000 carryover produced by Mine That Bird and Orthodox may be the last vestage of horseplayer's attempts to salvage something significant from the challenging Derby-Oaks Weekend.
Came away from the Kentucky trip satisfied from a racing quality standpoint and down $100 from the wagering perspective thank entirely to the Derby. Looking back, casting nets widely in P3's may be the best approach to the Oaks-Derby Weekend Cards. Look at these sequences in $1 P3's up to the points where Orthodox and Mine That Bird likely stopped most P4/P3 runs: Friday: Chamberlain Bridge-Miss Isella-Laragh: $186 Miss Isella-Laragh-Bullsbay: $318 Saturday: Accredit-Four Gifts-Tizaqueena: $307 Four Gifts-Tizaqueena-Informed Decision: $212 Tizaqueena-Informed Decision-Einstein: $125 More than $1,100 in P3's are there with horses that were necessities on tickets. Thought this was edifying as I looked back at my play from Friday and Saturday. Hope you did OK over Oaks-Derby and finish the 'First Weekend in May' strong today! CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Yankee Player 5-2 3rd Best Value: #5 Five Star Sweetie 5-1 WON Next Best: #9 SCR Super Add: #1 Morning Magic 5-1 2nd $1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $23.20 $1 Trifecta (5-1-8) Paid $53.50 5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Formal Dannie 5-1 WON Most Likely: #6 Gatorize 8-5 3rd Next Best: #4 Burke's Sister 9-2 5th Super Add: #1 No Image 6-1 4th 6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #2 High Quail WON Next Best: #12 Caffeine Free 5th Exotics Use: #3 Maria's Moon 3rd 7th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Stratos 6-1 2nd Most Likely: #4 Emma's Posse 7-2 WON Next Best: #6 Lookn Mighty Fast 5-1 7th Super Add: #5 Pound the Rock 8-1 6th 8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 11f (DD, Super) OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #4 Silver Mountain 2-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Hidden Glance 5-2 3rd 9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5) Hi-5 C/O: $252,000 Most Likely: #4 Jolly Ol' Nick 5-1 5th Best Value: #5 Shot Gun Cliff 6-1 WON Next Best: #6 Mr. Champ 4-1 6th Exotics Use: #8 Wayfarer 6-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Steds Pirate 12-1 7th @$200 P6 Play: 4: 1-5-8 5: 3-4-6 6: 2 7: 2-4-6 8: 4-5 9: 4-5 3x3x1x3x2x2 = 108 x $2 = $216 $2 Pick 6 (5/3/1,2,4,5,6,9,11/4/3/5) Paid $252.60 (5OF6) x 2 = $505.20 <$50 P4 Play: 6: 2-12 7: 2-4-5-6 8: 4-5 9: 2-3-4-5-6-8 2x4x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-07-2009 at 07:07 AM. 
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#2
05-06-2009, 09:51 AM
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Program Changes for Wednesday, May 6, 2009 (Day 8 of 52)
Last updated: 11:30 a.m. (EDT) Main Track: MUDDY Turf Course: OFF the Turf Post time: 12:45 p.m. EDT RACE 4 -- PICK 6 BEGINS (CARRYOVER $781,146) SCRATCH #9 Eye of the Tigress RACE 5 Jockey Change #5 On Your Knees - Tony Farina Race 6 - OFF THE TURF - 1 1/16M On the Main Track SCRATCH #1 Happenstance SCRATCH #4 Just An Inkling SCRATCH #5 Transformationlady SCRATCH #6 Mimi's Kids SCRATCH #9 Alley Theater SCRATCH AE #11 Promulgation AE #12 Caffiene Free will run Race 7- LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER) Jockey Change #5 Pound the Rock - Jesus Castanon Race 8 - OFF THE TURF - 1 3/8M On the Main Track (NO TRIFECTA WAGERING, NO SUPERFECTA WAGERING, NO SHOW WAGERING) SCRATCH #2 Fifty Five SCRATCH #6 My Happiness Race 9 -- SUPER HI-5 (CARRYOVER $251,856) SCRATCH #7 Painted Forest Last edited by Kasept : 05-06-2009 at 10:53 AM.
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#6
05-06-2009, 04:36 PM
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good run steve- you're probably feeling the same way i do right now- should have had this one. i missed Mott's 4 on my $80 real ticket.
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