Tosses

[jpops757]

When was the last time that a 20k claimer wasnt an auto toss? I think this horse has smome some serious upside. Wonder how the Ramseys are feeling? What were his flaws that caused him to be put on the claiming block?

[Pedigree Ann]

Young horses can fool you. You can work them alone, in company, whatever, and they don't show you much. So you don't think they are MSW class horse, especially if you didn't spend a lot for them (the Ramseys spent $20K), and you run them for a price. And in GQ's case, he just barely won, so it would have seemed that that was where he fit.

The new owner didn't turn him into a stakes horse immediately, either. It wasn't until December, after 7 starts, that GQ showed he might be a SW in waiting. Many of the higher profile trainers would have given up on him long ago, sent him down to the minors.

The high-class West Coast mare Manta (12 stakes wins, including 3 that were later G1 when grading came in) began her career in a MCl race, where she aired: she just hadn't been that impressive in her prep work.

Brass Hat started in a MCl race because his connections thought he needed a race, nothing else was in the book, and that no one was likely to claim a Prized gelding without any form.

[Danzig]

whenever someone mentions a horse once ran for a tag-i think of john henry. five times he ran in claiming races. the rest is history.

some horses start out well early, only to descend thru the ranks later in their career. some it's the exact opposite, which is what you have here.

[Thunder Gulch]

Charismatic ran for a tag- I believe around 62k- just 90 days before winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Charismatic ran for a tag- I believe around 62k- just 90 days before winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Imperialism ran for a tag several times.

[blackthroatedwind]

The number of top horses that ran for a tag during their careers is pretty lengthy. Lakeville Miss, 2YO champ in 1977, won her debut in a maiden claimer. Kelly Kip did the same. Successful Appeal also ran for a tag in his debut.

It happens fairly frequently. Connections aren't always as smart before races as Pedagogue Ann thinks she is afterwards.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If you're looking for tosses I'd suggest looking for horses who you don't believe are capable of improving enough to run a 103 Beyer.

Over the last 20 years the average Beyer figure earned by the 3rd place finisher in the Derby is a 103.

Only two horses have ever won the Derby without previously running a 103.

Giacomo in '05 and Sea Hero in '93

* Giacomo had run figures in the 93-to-98 range in each of his last 3 starts in much slower paced races - and on two of the three occasions over extreme speed biased tracks.

He figured to improve for a variety of reasons - from the hotter pace, to the added distance, to the much more favorable race shape, to the fact that John Shirreffs got him to work bullets of 1:23 and change and 1:11 and change in his final two Derby works ... on what was an otherwise slow poke worktab all season long.

Shirreffs is the single most lethal trainer I've ever seen when it comes to getting a horse to fire off of workouts. From '98 through '99 he went 14-for-24 with first time starters .. an other worldly ROI of $7.63 .. and many of his debut winners fired triple digit Beyers.

Since losing 505 farms .. he no longer gears horses up to run their best lifetime race 1st time out.

Notice the change in Giacomo's worktab:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...yderby_pps.pdf


* Sea Hero had never run a 103 Beyer before the Derby .. but I believe no one else in that field had either. It was the worst 3yo crop of all-time. The favorite Prairie Bayou had never even run a 100.


Not including I Want Revenge and Quality Road ... I don't like the chances of any individual horse in this field to run a 100 .. let alone a 103. Though several like Dunkirk and General Quarters have a shot at it - and at least one probably will.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Wonder how the Ramseys are feeling? What were his flaws that caused him to be put on the claiming block?

Stupid, I'd think. If I were the Ramseys, I'd be looking for some answers from Ward. Like, for example, why someone who CUTS all his horses didn't cut GQ.

Then don't cut him and they run him for $20k. And Ward's on record as stating the horse wasn't much.