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#1
11-10-2008, 06:05 PM
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Aqueduct 11-12-2008
Hello to everyone....
I am new to this site and am curious of your opinions on Wednesday's card at Aqueduct. Race 1 : Clm15000B for Fillies Abby Morgan - Why such a big drop?? Does she belong at this level? 10 of her last 12 have been against ALW company. Charming Mandate - Finger Lakes shipper with three straight wins. Does she fit in well with this company? Has she hit her peak? Race 2 : Clm35000N2L Give No Ground - Anthony Dutrow enters him a non-winners race when he faced better at MED. Beyers are inconsistent of late. Why? Flashbulb Breeze - MCL win to a claiming level for about the same price. Was the last Beyer of 84 too much? Is this the candidate for a big bounce? 
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#2
11-10-2008, 06:08 PM
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selections ..
welcome.. 
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#3
11-10-2008, 06:14 PM
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Dan..
I just printed Wednesday's AQU this afternoon and haven't looked at it yet with Tuesday racing at Calder and Churchill tomorrow.. Blackthroatedwind certainly has given the Wed. card a thorough going over already and may offer thoughts. Otherwise it will be later on Tuesday till further opinions emerge... In the meantime, welcome and glad you joined...
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
11-10-2008, 06:20 PM
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Ban me.....please.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#5
11-10-2008, 07:19 PM
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Dan,
Welcome to the board. The conditioned claimers that you ask about have become prevalent on the NYRA circuit, so the sooner you become acquainted with them, the better. As far as Abby Morgan goes, she is an interesting case because she was claimed for 15k back in August at Saratoga. She is eligible for this race because she's a non-winner of 3 career races, the other way a horse qualifies for this race is if they are 3 years old, whether they've won three races or nine. Steven Crist broached this topic over the summer at Saratoga and his conclusion was that the 3YOs who have multiple wins are generally overbet and that the non-winners of 3 largely dominate this tricky race type. Abby Morgan is a hard knocker but has had a very difficult time winning races. She finally broke through when dropped in for a tag at Saratoga and when Anthony Dutrow ran her for a tag again, Contessa swooped in and took her. As expected, she has struggled since the claim, with her only positive race coming in a very weak allowance race on the day after the Travers. Now she's running for a smaller tag than the one for which she was claimed, but that has something to do with the basement claiming price being a bit lower at Aqueduct. If she is claimed today and gets the 2nd place share (something she is quite fond of) then Winning Move/Contessa's take is $19,000, which is relatively decent all things considered. The folks at Winning Move seem to be in the business of moving and shaking, so don't be concerned when they make what may seem like "radical" moves. As far as Charming Mandate, she is a winner of four career races, but those all came against vastly inferior company, as evidenced by the company line in her last outing as both Shoot the Bugler and R C Lisp are former NYRA runners who couldn't cut the mustard. What further sticks out is that this gal was beaten handily the last time two times she ran downstate and both of the races she ran in were quite unimpressive. The exact condition on Give No Ground's last race was "For fillies three years old or fillies and mares four years old and upward who have never won two races" so this is actually a lateral move and when you consider that said effort came at the Big M, this is probably a tougher race. She was supposed to bounce back in her last outing and did not, however, I have not watched the replay, so perhaps her trip was subpar as the "came 4 wide" running line suggests a bit. Flashbulb Breeze beat up on poor competition last time out and her big figure had a lot to do with the turf being quite hard at that point in time and the only other turf race on 10/22 being a 5 furlong sprint. I wouldn't put too much stock into that figure, nor any turf Beyer figure for that matter. I hope this answers some of your questions. Feel free to PM me anytime you have a question. NT
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#6
11-10-2008, 07:24 PM
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Isn't Seventeen Love a huge favorite and very likely winner?
And, let me add, that was one helluva longwinded post Nick.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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