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#1
07-22-2008, 09:35 PM
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7/23: Saratoga (Opening Day)
Eludicated thoughts regarding commencement of another Spa session earlier (http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=49), with this particular Wednesday on the calendar as welcome in these parts as the first true spring day after a long winter. It has been a different kind of period of discontent since the bitter 2008 Triple Crown managed to denegrate far more than celebrate the sport and industry. The next six weeks can go a long way towards bridging the dischord around racing by providing an authentic representation of the game's purest qualities and attributes.
I hope everyone enjoys the 36 days of Saratoga, and I wish all good luck in their racing-related ventures. SARATOGA RACE COURSE Distinct possibility that the day is affected by heavy weather.. Turf course was less than firm as of late Tuesday.. Pre-Scratches... 1st: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD) Very tricky opener with host of possibilities.. Note pace scenario could shift should course come up heavy.. OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #10 SCR Best Value: #4 SCR Next Best: #2 SCR Exotics Add: #9 SCR 2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Cognito 2-1 WON Best Value: #7 Brave Victory 5-1 2nd Next Best: #1e SCR Exotics Add: #8 In Speight of It 15-1 4th 3rd: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Accredit 8-5 WON Best Value: #2 Connecticut Yankee 5-1 6th Next Best: #6 Bordeaux Bandit 12-1 5th 4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT P3, DD) OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #4 Strategic Vision 8-1 10th Best Value: #6 Miracle Causeway 15-1 5th Next Best: #3 Cops Fever 3-1 2nd Exotics Add: #1 SCR WON (Remaining half of entry) 5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Fiddlers Afleet 5-2 3rd Best Value: #8 SCR Next Best: #2 Lookin At Her 9-2 WON Super Add: #7 Vinnie Van Go 7-2 2nd $1 Exacta Paid $22.10 $1 Trifecta Paid $41.75 <$50 P4 Play: 2: 1-2-7 3: 1 4: 1-3-4-6 5: 1-2-7-8 3x1x4x4 = $48 $1 P4 Paid $119.50 6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, DD, P3) OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #5 Of All Times 3-1 3rd Best Value: #9 Jazz Nation 6-1 WON Next Best: #8 Marq of Love 7-2 5th Exotics Add: #2 SCR 7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD) OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #2 SCR WON (Remaining half of entry) Best Value: #6 SCR Next Best: #3 Continental Reins 15-1 2nd (Other half of entry) Exotics Add: #9 SCR $1 Exacta Paid $16.90 8th: The High Rock Spring, NYB-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD) OFF THE TURF Most Likely: #5 SCR Next Best: #4 SCR Best Value #7 SCR Exotics Add: #10 Posted 6-1 4th 9th: 90th Schuylerville (Gr. III), 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Collegiate 7-2 4th Best Value: #4 Renda 15-1 5th Next Best: #1 Ocean Colors 5-2 9th Super Add: #5 Chartreux 15-1 6th 10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #1e Levine entry 4-1 4th Best Value: #4 Fregata 10-1 5th Next Best: #8 SCR Super Add: #9 Drums of Thunder 15-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2 8: 4-5-7 9: 1-3-4 10: 1-2-4-6-7-8-9-11 1x3x3x8 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-24-2008 at 02:01 AM. 
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#2
07-22-2008, 10:10 PM
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It's probably stupid to take a horse that broke her maiden vs. NYBs but I like Chartreux a little in the Schuylerville. . .
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#3
07-23-2008, 05:08 AM
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#4
07-23-2008, 06:30 AM
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#6
07-23-2008, 07:09 AM
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to steve
i looked at your picks
and as im looking the rain is falling like hell at my house 30 miles away so my question is are your picks based on fast and firm tracks?or are your picks based on incoming wheather? how would you go as far as your picksthat are already written and incoming wheater goes?thanks
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#7
07-23-2008, 07:50 AM
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#8
07-23-2008, 08:25 AM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#9
07-23-2008, 10:48 AM
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#10
07-23-2008, 07:18 AM
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"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#11
07-23-2008, 07:58 AM
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Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma
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#12
07-23-2008, 06:07 AM
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I'm going to take a shot with #4 Flying Private in the 2nd for Lukas. Liked that he showed speed in debut before throwing in the towel and he's worked a bullet in the mud. Also, I'm in agreement with Steve on Strategic Vision in the 4th.
__________________
Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#13
07-23-2008, 01:21 PM
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Looking at the sires in the 4th may as well take a small shot on the Volponi Smateralex in the mud. And the only entry not tail mail to Mr Prospector/Northern Dancer is Alpha Dancer (to Cozzene). Last edited by sumitas : 07-23-2008 at 01:35 PM.
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#17
07-23-2008, 05:09 PM
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#20
07-23-2008, 08:10 PM
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Just got home at 8:30. Rather difficult day to enjoy in the truest sense certainly, but it seemed everyone tried. Was a waste of time for most with the card largely torn up by the Off Turfers and sloppy main track. Sorry I was unable to adjust for scratches today. Opener is always an operational challenge..
Saw many, many DTers already.. Saw as old a racetrack friend as I have in Jim Ortiz, whom I worked with at Dannon Yogurt (1986-1987). Good to get the meet underway, but we may have to wait until Friday or Saturday to get any serious horseplay in. Hope everyone made the most of today, despite the unpleasant conditions, and enjoyed the show if they tuned in. Will catch up with everyone's opening day in the a.m.! 'night...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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