Post This!!!!

[the_fat_man]

This should put all the stat motivated POST discussions to rest.

What a ride by Kent, who many claim doesn't ride well on the lead. Nothing like repeatedly and strategically OPENING UP another notch to just GUT the field. I've had it done to me while cycling and it's not pleasant.

It was a MAESTRO type performance.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This should put all the stat motivated POST discussions to rest.

What a ride by Kent, who many claim doesn't ride well on the lead. Nothing like repeatedly and strategically OPENING UP another notch to just GUT the field. I've had it done to me while cycling and it's not pleasant.

It was a MAESTRO type performance.

It was a good ride by Desormeaux but let's keep in mind that Kent was riding the 3/2 favorite..... If the horse was not much the best then he would have gotten beat with or without a good ride by KD.

[miraja2]

Saying that his victory proves that post position there doesn't matter is really detracting from what the horse did today.
Being that far outside going 9f at Gulfstream absolutely DOES matter. That can't be disputed by anyone with an ounce of sense. The fact that Big Brown had enough speed in the first furlong to minimize that effect is to his credit. The fact that he was able to run the last eight furlongs the way he did is evidence that this colt is indeed a very talented animal.
I bet against him today, but I suspect that most of us that did were well aware that this was certainly possible. We just didn't like those odds.

As for the ride, KD unquestionably did the right thing in this race, but was there really anything else he could have done? It wasn't like he demonstrated great decision-making today, but he did execute a rather obvious gameplan very well.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Saying that his victory proves that post position there doesn't matter is really detracting from what the horse did today.
Being that far outside going 9f at Gulfstream absolutely DOES matter. That can't be disputed by anyone with an ounce of sense. The fact that Big Brown had enough speed in the first furlong to minimize that effect is to his credit. The fact that he was able to run the last eight furlongs the way he did is evidence that this colt is indeed a very talented animal.
I bet against him today, but I suspect that most of us that did were well aware that this was certainly possible. We just didn't like those odds.

As for the ride, KD unquestionably did the right thing in this race, but was there really anything else he could have done? It wasn't like he demonstrated great decision-making today, but he did execute a rather obvious gameplan very well.

You and the rest are MISSING the POINT. It's not that breaking from the 12 hole DOESN'T matter IN GENERAL, anyone looking at numbers can see that but rather that one is able to pick out the EXCEPTIONS to the OBVIOUS.
That's what the game is really about. That's why we're here kicking it around, some more strongly than others. You can push your numbers all you want but the ability to step outside in the exceptional cases is what distinguishes someone who either makes or buys numbers from someone who has a good intuition for the game. Nothing more, nothing less.

And your stat approach, like a good deal of the others, is getting in the way of appreciating a fine ride. And who cares what the horse paid? I didn't bet him. I don't bet < 4:1. It's about making a point with all the WISEGUYS with the STATS shooting their mouths off and now resorting to pat positions to save face. Admit it, your stats got your neck chopped off, like the turkey.

Gobble, gobble

Nothing personal, by the way

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You and the rest are MISSING the POINT. It's not that breaking from the 12 hole DOESN'T matter IN GENERAL, anyone looking at numbers can see that but rather that one is able to pick out the EXCEPTIONS to the OBVIOUS.
That's what the game is really about. That's why we're here kicking it around, some more strongly than others. You can push your numbers all you want but the ability to step outside in the exceptional cases is what distinguishes someone who either makes or buys numbers from someone who has a good intuition for the game. Nothing more, nothing less.

And your stat approach, like a good deal of the others, is getting in the way of appreciating a fine ride. And who cares what the horse paid? I didn't bet him. I don't bet < 4:1. It's about making a point with all the WISEGUYS with the STATS shooting their mouths off and now resorting to pat positions to save face. Admit it, your stats got your neck chopped off, like the turkey.

Gobble, gobble

Nothing personal, by the way

Ummm okay.
If you want me to admit that I bet this race, and that I didn't bet Big Brown, and that I did that in part because he drew post 12 in a 9f race at Gulfstream....I readily admit all of it. In fact I'm pretty damn sure that I already have admitted it.
Congratulations on cracking the case.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Great post.

The 12 hole?

Well I guess you got to give Kent D.
credit for knowing exactly how much
horse he had.

Which was around a megaton.

[cmorioles]

I don't get the adulation. What else was he going to do? If anything, the 12 post stopped any chance of him trying to be clever.

[Payson Dave]

hossy... i still laugh everytime i see your sig and then your avatar.....both f'in classics

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

hossy... i still laugh everytime i see your sig and then your avatar.....both f'in classics

I got on DT this morning, slightly groggy and the first thread I hit, there was the avatar. For a millisecond I thought WarrenT was back.

I laughed and still laugh everytime I see it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

It was a good ride by Desormeaux but let's keep in mind that Kent was riding the 3/2 favorite..... If the horse was not much the best then he would have gotten beat with or without a good ride by KD.

exactly. anyone would have done what he did. the horse did what no other had accomplished thus far. i doubt it had much to do with the jock.

[the_fat_man]

The turkey comes out every morning, for 364 mornings, and runs to meet the farmer, as it knows that the farmer is coming to feed it. On the 365th day, the farmer grabs it, slits its throat, and makes a meal of it.

Hume's problem of induction.

My point: it's fine to look at stats in general but stats that don't take the ability of the individual horse, rather than just the post, into question can work in the general case but will fail when needed bigtime.

Of course, the answer will always be that the stats hold in the long run. This is a GOOD argument except in the case where THEY FAIL. Which is precisely this case.

[Oaklawnfan]

[quote=the_fat_man]The turkey comes out every morning, for 364 mornings, and runs to meet the farmer, as it knows that the farmer is coming to feed it. On the 365th day, the farmer grabs it, slits its throat, and makes a meal of it.

I love Turkey Hunting in the Ozarks. It's coming up in jussst a couple of weeks. Right after the Bluegrass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.

[Bobby Fischer]

The fact that Electrify ran like a super-horse 2 races later, maybe makes the Desormeaux ride look even better.

Does it down-grade the speed that Big Brown showed at all?

It is something tricky for the race-watchers to study. How fast was the track really.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No shi t. Wasn't that established a few days ago? The point is, I have no problem playing against a horse at 3-2 doing something no one else has done before.

Me either, Hossy.

[ArlJim78]

so its all due to the maestro ride? how idiotic. winning from that post tells you something about this horse, not that the post didn't matter.

how many jockeys could have given a maestro ride on that horse today?
hint, anybody, that was a monster race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

so its all due to the maestro ride? how idiotic. winning from that post tells you something about this horse, not that the post didn't matter.

how many jockeys could have given a maestro ride on that horse today?
hint, anybody, that was a monster race.

You were off about the post thing. If I recall you were off about the turf sprinter stretching to 2 turns. And now, you fail to appreciate a very nice ride.
The kind of ride that just breaks the will of the horses chasing.

What else is there to say?

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You were off about the post thing. If I recall you were off about the turf sprinter stretching to 2 turns. And now, you fail to appreciate a very nice ride.
The kind of ride that just breaks the will of the horses chasing.

What else is there to say?

I could have won on Big Brown today carrying 180lbs. I think you are giving Kent too much credit for not screwing anything up.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You were off about the post thing. If I recall you were off about the turf sprinter stretching to 2 turns. And now, you fail to appreciate a very nice ride.
The kind of ride that just breaks the will of the horses chasing.

What else is there to say?

Big Brown broke the will of the other horses, not Kent. Frosty the Snowman could've ridden that thing and still won by open lengths.

[Bobby Fischer]

Kent is one of the best , if not the best. Its obvious. It should be obvious to the stats guys too, because he seems to do well in the meaningful stats like decent class route distance races.

He attacked the race exactly the way it had to be done and he was aggressive.

He also had the best american 3yo in the world. He couldn't have won that race with hey byrn or elysium fields or fierce wind or face the cat, and a few other jockeys could have won with big brown. You absolutely want to see the best jockey on the best horse, and it is especially nice when they both have a ton of naysayers to prove wrong. Although then again he was the heavy fav...